Let this be clear: There's no question who's the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts.
Anthony Richardson is the kind of physical outlier that video gamers create in Madden 25: 22 years old, 6-foot-4, 244 pounds and with 4.43 speed. The Colts used the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to select Richardson, signed him to a $34 million contract and gave him a $21.7 million signing bonus. Indianapolis is invested in Richardson being the future of the franchise.
Meanwhile Joe Flacco is a 39-year-old whose 40 time could be measured by a sundial. His best days, which were very good considering he led the Ravens to a Super Bowl win in the 2012 season, are well behind him. He signed a one-year, $4.5 million deal with the Colts in the offseason knowing Richardson was entrenched as the starter.
But, according to the SportsLine Projection Model, Indianapolis is better with its No. 2 quarterback than its No. 1. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Colts with Flacco as quarterback win 8.0 games, win the AFC South 18.1% of the time and make the playoffs 36.2% of the time. By contrast, with Richardson behind center, they win 7.5 games, win the division 12.5% of the time and reach the postseason 25.4% of the time.
Why the difference? According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model, Flacco is exactly what Richardson is not (accurate) but is exactly what Indianapolis needs. Flacco is a career 61.6% passer, while Richardson sits at 55.3%. This season Richardson has completed just 50.6% of his passes. He also has thrown six interceptions, which is tied with the Titans' Will Levis for the most in the league (though Levis has thrown 21 more passes). Finally Richardson has a passer rating of 60.2, which ranks second to last in the NFL, ahead of only the Panthers' Bryce Young (44.1).
"Flacco makes his layups, unlike Richardson who is as accurate 50 yards downfield as he is five yards downfield," Oh says. "That's an exaggeration, but you get the point."
In the team's game Sunday against the Steelers, Flacco had to come in for Richardson, who was knocked out of the game with a hip injury. On third downs Flacco went 6-for-8 for 72 yards with six first downs, including two touchdowns. Prior to Sunday's game, the Colts had converted just three first downs through the air under Richardson.
Flacco finished the game 16 of 26 for 168 yards and two touchdowns. Indianapolis beat previously undefeated Pittsburgh, 27-24.
"I think my personality probably lends itself decent to this type of situation," Flacco says. "It's like, 'Don't overthink it, don't overdo it. It's just a game of football. Go out there. If the guy's open, throw it to him and hit him. Just keep it simple.'"
Says Colts coach Shane Steichen: "He's a guy who has been doing it a long time. He went in there and operated. He's seen a lot of football, which is huge at that position. He went in and did his job."
Flacco may need to do the job again for this week's game at Jacksonville. Richardson is still recovering from the hip injury and did not practice on Wednesday. While Steichen says Richardson avoided a "huge, huge injury," the quarterback's playing status for Sunday remains up-in-the-air.
"Hopefully Anthony is out there; that's the plan," Steichen said Wednesday. "But if [Flacco] has to do it again, we have faith in Joe to go do it."
As for Week 5, the SportsLine Projection Model is calling for a close game between the Colts and Jaguars. However, that game isn't one of the two with A-grade picks based on model simulations. You can find those top-tier Week 5 NFL picks at SportsLine.
