Two historic AFC franchises face off this Sunday as the Las Vegas Raiders welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to town. Both teams are facing some uncertainty at the quarterback position -- Justin Fields has yet to be named the full-time starter in Pittsburgh, while Vegas just replaced Gardner Minshew with Aidan O'Connell.
O'Connell, who was selected by the Raiders in the fourth round last year out of Purdue, went 5-5 as the starter in his rookie season, but his presence under center has the three-point favorite Steelers on upset alert. It remains to be seen if he's actually an upgrade over Minshew at quarterback, but the trends say O'Connell is likely to cover the spread on Sunday.
O'Connell went an incredible 7-2-1 against the spread last season. That's the best cover percentage (78%) among the 38 quarterbacks that made more than five starts in 2023. In his final four starts of the season, O'Connell went 4-0 ATS, and threw eight passing touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. Jared Goff was the only other quarterback to go a perfect 4-0 ATS in Weeks 15-18.
You'll remember O'Connell quarterbacked for the Raiders when they waltzed into Arrowhead Stadium and ruined Christmas for the Kansas City Chiefs. He passed for just 62 yards in that 20-14 upset victory, but hey, a win is a win.
Vegas clearly has trouble gauging the Raiders when O'Connell is at quarterback, so it's fair to say the Steelers could be on upset alert -- or at least won't cover the three-point spread.
