Super Bowl 2025: Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes' 8-0 record vs. Vic Fangio does not matter, but his performance does

One of sports most commonly used cliches when great teams or rivals square off is, "you can throw out the records when these two meet." This is by no means a rivalry, but, please throw out the records when Patrick Mahomes and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio go head-to-head, like they will on Sunday.

Mahomes is 8-0 in his career vs. Fangio and the Chiefs average 26.9 points per game in those matchups. That includes six games when Fangio was the Broncos' head coach and two games in 2023 when he was the Dolphins' defensive coordinator. Their most recent matchup was last year's ice cold playoff game at Arrowhead, which the Chiefs' won 26-7.

Here's why that 8-0 record does not matter at all: 

• This Eagles team is far superior to the Broncos and Dolphins' teams coached by Fangio that were on average a touchdown underdog vs. Mahomes. 
• The quarterbacks in those eight games were Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Drew Lock (four times), Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater. 
• They only averaged 11.9 points per game vs. Kansas City in those eight games. 
• Plus, defensively, none of the units that Mahomes faced in this sample size were top-10 in defensive EPA, while the Eagles have the best defense in the NFL this year. 

Mahomes' record vs. Fangio may be misleading, but his struggles against him are not. His efficiency in terms of EPA per play vs. Fangio was significantly down, he completed fewer passes and averaged fewer yards per dropback.

Patrick Mahomes career vs. Vic Fangio 

There's three components to these struggles that could also impact Super Bowl LIX. 

1. Situational football

The Chiefs don't have an explosive offense. They actually have among the fewest explosive plays in the NFL this year. They rely on long drives (lead NFL in plays per drive this year) and converting on third down (third-best in 2024) to methodically march up-and-down the field. In eight matchups between Mahomes and Fangio the Chiefs converted on just 38% of their third downs (vs. 49% in all other games with Mahomes) and scored touchdowns just 38% of the time in goal-to-go situations (vs. 79% in all other games vs Mahomes). It'll be a massive difference in Sunday's game if Fangio can get Mahomes off the field and hold the Chiefs to field goals instead of touchdowns like he has in the past.

Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes including playoffs

2. Unpredictable

If I learned anything from studying Mahomes' past performances vs. Fangio, it's that you can expect the unexpected. Fangio blitzed Mahomes fewer than 10% of the time in each of his last two matchups with the Broncos in 2021. However, in last year's playoff game with the Dolphins, he blitzed 49% of the time, including on 11 of Mahomes' 13 dropbacks on third down (85%). It was the second-highest blitz rate (and highest on third down) Mahomes has faced in his entire career. 

Fangio won't send extra rushers at a clip remotely close to that on Sunday. That's not the Eagles game and it's not smart vs. Mahomes, but I wouldn't put it past Fangio to do something unexpected to slow him down.

3. Slowing down Kelce

Fangio will be locked in on Travis Kelce on Sunday. Kelce was held to under 35 receiving yards in three of his last four matchups vs. a Fangio defense, including a 14-yard performance in a game in Germany in 2023. The Chiefs just proved they can win a playoff game without a big performance from Kelce (two catches for 19 yards in the AFC title game) but he should still be a focal point for Philadelphia's defense.

What to watch in Super Bowl LIX

Mahomes' 8-0 record vs. Fangio doesn't matter, but his overall play does. But even that pales in comparison to a matchup that loomed large in Super Bowl LVII between these teams.

Can the Chiefs' creativity and quick passing neutralize a very good Eagles pass rush and disruptive secondary? Mahomes is first in success rate on quick throws (under 2.5 seconds) and fifth in success rate with motion this year. The Eagles defense is top five defending both.

Mahomes clearly had the edge vs. Philadelphia's defense the last time they met in the Super Bowl. He was 17 of 21 with three touchdowns with pre-snap motion and a perfect 13 of 13 passing with under 2.5 seconds to throw. The Eagles did not get a single sack in the entire game and did not get a stop in the second half when they desperately needed it. In fact, Kansas City's offense was nearly perfect in the second half of Super Bowl LVII. Zero penalties, zero turnovers, zero punts, zero sacks and just one incompletion. 

I expect the Eagles to challenge Mahomes more on Sunday thanks to the addition of Fangio and a more talented defense, but like most great units that have faced him, it probably won't be enough. 

Mahomes is 7-0 in his playoff career vs. a top-five defense entering the week, tied with Bart Starr for the best record in NFL history. His numbers against great defenses in the playoffs are absurd, too. He completes over 70% of his passes for 280 passing yards per game with 17 total touchdowns and just four turnovers. 

Patrick Mahomes playoff career vs Top 5 scoring defense

So no matter what Fangio has done before to slow Mahomes down, he will have to be that much better on Sunday because Mahomes feasts in the playoffs, especially vs. elite defenses.