A year ago, after Week 1 of the 2023 season, I wrote about five rookies who balled out in their debuts and whether it was sustainable over the ensuing four months. Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, Christian Gonzalez, Brian Branch and Jalen Carter all made the list.
(Interestingly, no C.J. Stroud, who struggled against the Ravens in Week 1 before catching fire.)
Nacua was, far and away, the best rookie of that group, but Robinson was stymied by Arthur Smith's offense, Gonazales' promising season was cut short by injury and Carter flashed top-5 talent but the whole team crumbled to a 1-6 finish and a blowout loss to the Bucs in the playoffs.
Branch, meanwhile, was better than advertised. And as Rick Spielman, my co-host on the "With the First Pick" podcast, would tell you, Branch didn't play like the 4.58-second 40-yard dash he ran at the NFL Scouting Combine. He played more like a 4.4 guy, and he's also incredibly bright.
Another year, another crop of players facing high expectations; some to save a franchise, others to protect the face of the franchise, and others still to keep a good thing going. Unlike last year's list, which featured a seconder- and fifth-rounder, the names below were all taken in the first round, and all, to varying degrees, made immediate impacts in Week 1. All of them, I suspect, will only get better as the season wears on.
5. Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs
- Week 1 stat line: 3 targets, 2 catches, 47 yards, 1 TD; 1 rush for 21 yards, 1 rushing TD
We all knew Xavier Worthy was a burner, even before he set the all-time 40-yard dash record at the combine. He spent most Saturdays in Austin outrunning the 11 guys on the other team down the field, and usually into the end zone. And while speed kills, it doesn't always immediately translate to the next level, especially at wide receiver, mostly because thinking -- about the coverage, the route adjustments, the snap count, you name it -- is the enemy of playing fast.
All of this is to say, Worthy experienced none of the early-season growing pains of Rashee Rice from a year ago. (And I acknowledge that Rice was the best receiver on this team not named Travis Kelce for the final 3.5 months.) Worthy took an end around for 21 yards for a first-quarter touchdown vs. the Ravens, then followed that up with a wide-open touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. He looked a lot like he did at the University of Texas.
Is this sustainable?
Yep. And I feel like there isn't much more to add, mostly because he's in Kansas City's offense and not, say, the Patriots. Hollywood Brown will return in a few weeks, making Worthy's job even easier, and like those rookies who kept getting better a year ago -- Nacua, Jordan Addison, Marvin Mims, Rice -- Worthy landed in one of the best situations for a young pass catcher. Patrick Mahomes has the best receivers he's had since Tyreek Hill was traded, and that's terrible news for the rest of the conference.
4. JC Latham, LT, Titans
- Week 1 stat line: 2 hits, 1 sack
We talked about JC Latham on the podcast, in part because he was the No. 7 overall pick last April to a team that desperately needed to upgrade the offensive line, but also because he moved from right tackle at Alabama to left tackle for the Titans. Typically, that's not a smooth transition, but Latham was really good in the preseason and looked solid in his debut. The Bears kept Montez Sweat on the other side of the formation, and save one Darrell Taylor strip sack at Latham's (and Will Levis') expense, the rookie was pretty good.
Is this sustainable?
Yes sir. Latham is already a dominant run blocker, and while he's raw on the left side in pass protection, he's incredibly athletic for his size. And that, coupled with just how strong he is, means he can win with physicality while he hones his technique. Sometimes you see wide-eyed rookies who are overwhelmed and out of sorts, needing months, and sometimes years, to reach their potential. That ain't Latham; he has a chance to be special, sooner than later.
3. Joe Alt, RT, Chargers
- Week 1 stat line: 0 hits, 0 sack
"He has a chance to be special, sooner than later," is how I ended the paragraph above on JC Latham. It's fitting that it's how I'm starting the one on Joe Alt who, like Latham, has changed positions. Alt was a left tackle at Notre Dame and is now the right tackle for the Chargers. And as his stat line shows, he didn't allow a single hit on Justin Herbert, never mind a sack.
Unlike Latham, who had just a single rep against Sweat, Alt spent his afternoon battling Maxx Crosby, one of the best pass rushers in the league. And rep after rep, whether in passpro or a run play, Alt more than held his own. Bull rush? Alt re-anchored the first time he saw it and then shut it down the rest of the day. Chop? Alt used his long arms to redirect Crosby around Herbert several times.
Alt was also good against the run, but he was outstanding in passpro.
Is this sustainable?
The scary thing is that Alt is going to get better, and probably a lot better.
2. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
- Week 1 stat line: 14-29, 93 yards 0 TDs, 0 INTs; 5 rushes for 50 yards
Sometimes you watch a quarterback and you know. You know this ain't going to work, either now or in two weeks or two years. Williams' stat line is as pedestrian as it comes, but he's going to be fine. Remember, a year ago, the Ravens had Stroud in stitches in Week 1 and then everything changed. And by the end of the year, Stroud was legit a top-5 QB.
I don't think Williams will be in the top-5 conversation in January, but he'll be a top-half-of-the-league QB by then and he'll play a part in getting the Bears over the hump. That could mean a winning season and a shot at the playoffs, and next year it's all-gas, no-brakes with this offense, and the expectations.
Is this sustainable?
I have no doubt. For now, this team feels a little like the 2004 Steelers, which leaned on its defense and kept the training wheels on then-rookie Ben Roethlisberger and the offense. Williams is a much better passer right now than Big Ben was then, but the big issue we all talked about last fall is the one he'll need to continue to work on: playing on time. But he'll be fine. Keenan Allen dropped an easy touchdown pass, and the mistakes were those you'd expect a rookie to make in his very first start. Unlike most rookie QBs in recent NFL history, Williams has the luxury of playing on a really good team.
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1. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
- Week 1 stat line: 17-24, 184 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs; 16 rushes for 88 yards, 2 rushing TDs
Like Caleb Williams, Daniels played like he was hopped up on adrenaline for three hours. It also looked like the game was moving too fast for him at times. Not that he looked overmatched, but that he was skipping reads, or if his first read wasn't there, he looked to run. But that's also the beauty of Daniels' game: even on a field filled with phenomenal athletes, he's usually the best.
So while he was hit or miss with his arm, and his decisions when he threw the ball, he saved himself from so many dead-end plays because he was able to run out of it. The two rushing TDs were nice, but both were of the short-yardage variety; he's damn-near unstoppable in the open field and the biggest threat to his safety isn't taking a hit, it's that he's yet to perfect the slide (it's more of a tumble, like when you trip over your untied shoelaces). When you're talking about rookie QBs, there are certainly bigger problems to have.
Is this sustainable?
Not only is it sustainable, it's going to be a lot of fun to watch. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has a good track record with young, big-armed, athletic QBs. In fact, the biggest issue facing the Commanders after Week 1 isn't the rookie quarterback, it's getting this defense on track.
