Call it a mulligan. Aaron Rodgers will make his second-ever start for the New York Jets on Monday night, when he faces off against his hometown San Francisco 49ers. It's almost perfect, in a way. The oldest active player in the NFL coming off a torn Achilles begins the 2024 season against the team he would have liked to been selected by in 2005, and it's in Santa Clara where he will attempt to persuade the NFL world that the four-time MVP is still a threat.
We know what the 49ers are. One of the best teams in the NFL is favored to return to the Super Bowl after falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime of Super Bowl LVIII last year. But questions remain concerning both the consistency and the ceiling of quarterback Brock Purdy, and how the defense will fare under new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen.
Speaking of ceilings, what are the expectations for the Jets in 2024? With Rodgers under center and the backing of a top five defense, is New York a possible Super Bowl contender? Maybe we can find some answers to these questions when the Jets take on the 49ers Monday. Let's break down this interconference matchup.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
Where to watch
Date: Monday, Sep. 9 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
Channel: ABC/ESPN | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -3.5 O/U 43.5
Aaron Rodgers vs. 49ers
| Regular season | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 6-3 | 0-4 |
Passing YPG | 288.6 | 246.3 |
TD-INT | 20-2 | 5-3 |
When the Jets have the ball
This matchup features a player you could call "Mr. Monday Night." Rodgers has won 10 straight starts on "Monday Night Football," which is just one shy of tying Ken Stabler for the longest such streak all time. But then there are the Jets, who have lost 12 out of their last 13 prime-time games.
The question is pretty simple: What is this Jets offense going to look like with Rodgers under center compared to someone else like Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle? On one hand, this Nathaniel Hackett-led offense scored the fewest offensive touchdowns last year since the 2012 Chiefs with 18. But on the other, New York has legitimate playmakers like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, and upgraded the offensive line with Tyron Smith, John Simpson and Morgan Moses.
You should expect to see Wilson and Hall receive plenty of touches on Monday night. The former just became the first Jet to cross 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two NFL seasons, and did so with six different quarterbacks. As for Hall, he's a dual-threat back that tried to carry the offense himself in 2023, racking up the fourth-most scrimmage yards in the NFL with 1,585. He also recorded the most touches (93), scrimmage yards (507) and was tied for scoring the most touchdowns (4) from Weeks 16-18. Accounting for both of these playmakers is the key to victory for San Francisco.
The 40-year-old Rodgers is not going to be the most spry signal-caller in the league, which opens the door for Nick Bosa to potentially have a big night. Moses on the right side is someone who has faced off against Bosa before, and it may be him who is the most important offensive lineman on Monday night.
"Predominantly, I played against Bosa last year," Moses said, via the Jets official website. "And I look forward to the matchup. He's a great player, the things he's done in the NFL since he's been in the league, it's been phenomenal, and I look forward to it."
Rodgers has to remain upright if the Jets want to win Monday night. Or win at all, for that matter. From there, we will see if Rodgers is still an MVP candidate, or more of a distributor.
When the 49ers have the ball
The conversation around Purdy is always a fascinating one -- especially when he's facing good defenses. Is he the engine that makes this Ferrari of an offense go? Eh, probably not. But he's a pretty good "driver" of that Ferrari, if you will. Purdy's 9.6 yards per attempt last season set a new NFL record, and he finished in the top five in passing completion (69.4%), passing yards (4,280) and passing touchdowns (31).
The 49ers have weapons all across the board with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. They led the NFL in yards per play in 2023 with 6.6, but don't overlook this Jets defense. They led the league in NFL opponent yards per play with 4.6.
The Jets have one of the best defensive tackles in the game in Quinnen Williams, a dynamic duo at linebacker in C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams, then, who may be the best cornerback in the league with Sauce Gardner. The Jets are talented at all three levels, so how do you attack that kind of unit? From all angles. Lean into the versatility Kyle Shanahan's scheme thrives on.
There are a couple of notable storylines that may threaten the 49ers' chances on Monday night, or at least their offensive prowess. McCaffrey is officially listed as questionable to play due to calf and Achilles injuries, but you have to imagine he will. Still, it remains to be seen how good he feels and how effective he can be with those ailments. Additionally, could the 49ers' WR1 Aiyuk show some rust? Everyone's excited about the four-year $120 million extension he signed, but Aiyuk has not been hitting the practice field with his teammates all offseason. Then there's star left tackle Trent Williams, who has been away from the team due to his contract as well. Is San Francisco set to hit the ground running? Or the opposite?
Prediction
The Jets are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five road prime-time games. But how much can you look into that since Rodgers has never played a road prime-time game for New York. As for the 49ers, they have failed to cover in seven straight home games, outscoring their opponents by an average of .2 points per game.
If you're giving me four points with a motivated Jets team on the road, I'm going to take it. In my Week 1 picks column, which was not very good, I was bold and took the Jets to win straight up. Expect a close game that does not feature offensive fireworks, and because it should be close, I'll take the underdog with the better defense to cover.
Projected score: Jets 23-20
Before locking in any 49ers vs. Jets picks, make sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
