The best week of actual football is here. The NFL divisional round, while not as lengthy as the wild-card round, typically features the best four games we get of the season. And I don't expect this week to be any different. We have an EPIC Ravens-Bills matchup, a lot of unknowns in the Texans-Chiefs game and I still think plenty of potential shenanigans from bigger underdogs on the NFC side.
I'll have all my actual picks out later in the form of a projected playoff bracket, but for now let's get to some best bets for this weekend, encompassing player props, teasers and parlays.
I'd also point out there are still some interesting future bets you can make out there. A Bills-Rams Super Bowl matchup had 60-1 odds before last weekend. With the Bills and Rams - who both looked very good in the opening weekend of the playoffs en route to dominant "home" victories -- winning, the number has dropped obviously, but 37-1 is still fairly good. You're just asking them to each win two games.
One thing to keep in mind, however, when betting futures at this stage. You can also do a progressive parlay instead of betting on the actual matchup. I did the quick math utilizing other games with similar moneylines and based on some hypothetical future matchups at FanDuel -- if the Rams are +225 vs. the Lions (assuming they win) and the Bills are +106 vs. the Chiefs (assuming they win), you'd actually be better off setting up an "open" parlay with two more spots for next week's championship weekend games because you'd end up getting 41-1 instead.
However (obviously), if the Chiefs or Lions get upset, it would give the Rams or Bills, respectfully, a home playoff game in championship weekend and your odds would drop dramatically. In those instances, the Bills would be -405 to win and the Rams would be -142 to win. You'd probably be looking at something in the range of 15-1 for the full, four-game futures parlay. So if you like that one and think there could be any kind of an upset in the other two games, you're probably better off grabbing the 37-1 now. You'd also have an out with some hedges potentially on Houston or Washington moneylines.
One other trick for these in the modern gambling world: Split your bet into two smaller bets! That way if you get a Bills vs. Rams outcome this weekend, you'd have the ability to cash out one bet and let the other half ride, if you were so inclined. It's a good method to use for golf, etc., futures as well as when you have longer shots at bigger numbers in full tournaments.
To the best bets for this weekend, one from every game (sort of) with all odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL divisional-round best bets
Teaser: Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Texans and Bills (+7.5) vs. Ravens
The really smart move here if you were all over the early lines was to put in a six-point teaser on the Ravens and Chiefs when this game opened with the Bills favored by 1.5 and then put in another teaser on the Bills and Chiefs once the line swung across zero to make the Ravens a 1.5-point favorite. You'd need the Chiefs to essentially win (although they have to win by three obviously) and then the Ravens and Bills game stay within seven points and you win both bets. That's extremely likely! The ship has probably sailed for that -- I don't see the Bills becoming a favorite of more than a point again barring some injury -- but it's also possible this game ends as a pick 'em as well, so getting this teaser in now feels good. Baltimore's awesome. It could get a lead on Buffalo and pound Derrick Henry on their way to a dominant victory. But you saw what the Ravens did with Pittsburgh in the second half -- I don't think they can hold Buffalo and Josh Allen down that long. Allen will make plays with his legs and Sean McDermott will have something cooked up to slow down the Ravens attack, especially if Zay Flowers isn't out there again.
Parlay: Derrick Henry ATD (-201) and Josh Allen ATD (+105)
As I mentioned, Henry is gonna get his. The Ravens love feeding the Big Dog, he's been unstoppable nearly all season, he gets the rock by the goal line and against a Bills team that is more vulnerable to the run than the pass. I think he's going to find a way in for a score. So does Vegas, since he's -201 for an anytime touchdown. We can't bet that, but we can add a Josh Allen anytime touchdown to the mix instead at +105 to make this a nice and juicy 2-1 parlay. Allen didn't score in last week's blowout win over the Broncos, but he didn't need to use his legs by the goal line, with James Cook running wild. I think the Bills will prefer to use Cook's legs if they can, but this is a different beast. It's a really good Ravens team favored in Buffalo. Allen still ran last week but not near the goal line; Joe Brady saved those plays for this week and, hopefully, next week in Arrowhead, knowing they will need every possible point. Plus, we still saw Allen sneaking the ball a ton against Denver. The playoffs is when he runs. This is a pretty strong price for the two most likely touchdown scorers.
Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions (-120)
The usage is pretty clear here for the Lions offense and their second-year star tight end. He wasn't the volume hog for most of the regular season that people expected, with Jameson Williams coming on strong for Detroit and soaking up a ton of targets. Jamo still gets his and has been used around the line of scrimmage a lot more, but the result hasn't been LaPorta continuing to be phased out, rather he's more likely to be opened up as a result. Additionally, down the stretch, we've seen Ben Johnson and Jared Goff really utilize LaPorta as the weather got colder, the games got more meaningful and he was completely healthy. LaPorta's last five games tell a different story than his early season: He has 29 catches on 39 targets in that span for 335 yards and two touchdowns. That's a 97-catch/1,139-yard pace over 17 games, which would be really elite stuff for any tight end. LaPorta just needs five catches here, a number he has cleared in four of those five games. I think he gets here against a Commanders team that has a good defense but definitely can be vulnerable against the pass and over the middle of the field. They gave up an average of four catches per game to tight ends this season including some decent games to Luke Schoonmaker, Foster Moreau and Kyle Pitts -- all of whom scored -- in the final month of the season. It's LaPorta Potty SZN.
Kyren Williams over 12.5 receiving yards (-110)
The usage is going to be there for Williams, who has zero competition in the Rams backfield now after Blake Corum broke his forearm. He got 19 touches in a blowout Rams win where Los Angeles' defense scored a touchdown (both reduce the number of opportunities for starters in theory). Williams played on 87 percent of the Rams' offensive snaps in their domination of Minnesota, so it's a good bet he could be even higher in a game where the Rams are big underdogs. Additionally, he hit this number against a good Minnesota run defense last week by being utilized as a passer, getting three targets from Matthew Stafford and securing all three for 16 yards. I think we can get here multiple ways. If the Rams come out passing early against a stout Philly run defense, Williams will be involved to some degree. And if the Rams are trailing, you better believe Williams will see some targets as Philly starts to get home with the pass rush and Stafford needs easier looks. There's a world where he's forced to stay in and block, but even then we should get some screens or quick-hitters when he chips and releases. One early catch could clear this number, honestly.
