Hard to fathom, but Week 14 is already here. Football has "started" now that Thanksgiving's come and gone, with the sprint to the finish through Christmas set to dramatically change the landscape of the NFL playoff picture.
As we covered months ago, the AFC looks like it might be a little more boring from a wild-card perspective, unless the Colts and Dolphins can shake things up. There will be plenty of drama in the race for the various divisions, outside the AFC East (the Bills already clinched) and AFC West (the Chiefs are inevitable), but both winners will at least give us a really fun race for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
On the NFC side of things, there's a LOT to be determined. The Packers (9-3) are in third place in their division! Unheard of, but obviously a lot could change on Thursday night when they square off against the division-leading Lions (11-1). The NFC East is a one-team race, but the Eagles' involvement in the conference's top overall seed and the squeaking sports betting jabronis arguing Saquon Barkley should win MVP make them compelling. The NFC West and NFC South are complete free-for-alls.
Quick nitpick about the late season, though. Why the hell are six teams on bye in Week 14? Six!!! Do Roger Goodell and the AI bots cranking out the NFL schedule not have any inputs based on Fantasy football? Or a thought to how huge that late bye is for teams who are in the playoff hunt? Only two of the teams on bye this week -- the Patriots and Colts -- are below .500 and the Colts are squarely in the AFC wild-card race. Somewhat conveniently, they don't really get the advantage of chaos they might normally, with the Ravens and Broncos also on their bye.
It's way too late in the season for that many teams to be off for an entire week. Give us a full slate, Goodell! We're starving here.
Week 14 best bets
Packers-Lions Over 51.5
If this game is played in Green Bay, I'd love the Under here. Twenty degrees at kickoff, two physical teams who want to run the football, etc. And this could still backfire in my face if the Lions and Packers both commit to the run and David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs are gashing on the ground. But with the Lions injuries on defense -- they have THIRTEEN players on injured reserve -- coupled with the Packers' explosiveness on offense I think we see Green Bay chuck the ball down the field a good bit. Jordan Love might be gearing up to do the thing where he goes nuts late in the year (a la last season), and that could lead to the Lions cranking up their pass rate as well. Given their explosive playmakers on offense and a warm, indoor track, they should be able to score plenty coming back. I think we see the ball get chucked around quite a bit in this game and the two teams cruise past this total.
Bet the Packers-Lions game at Fanatics sportsbook
Falcons (+5.5) at Vikings
Kirk Cousins has been TERRIBLE the last couple of weeks. Given his slump and Aaron Rodgers' overall play this season, maybe we underestimated the Achilles tear recovery timeline. There's been chatter about Atlanta yanking Cousins out of the starting lineup and rolling with Michael Penix, Jr. I think the Falcons are in too close a race for the NFC South title to actually do that, although everyone looking around at the "meh" performances from various players on that Washington Huskies team might very well be wondering if Penix carried the whole team and not vice versa, so perhaps he's capable of leading a divisional charge. It ain't happening this week, though! And I'm not sure someone who is quietly as vengeful as Cousins -- remember "YOU LIKE THAT?" -- should be catching 5.5 points on the road against his old team after being cast aside this offseason when the Vikings didn't want him back. Cousins will storm through the backdoor worst case here in the ultimate Revenge Game.
Bet on the Falcons at Caesars Sportsbook
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model predicts a one-score win for the Vikings over their former QB. Check out the computer's other Week 14 selections at SportsLine.
De'Von Achane Over 57.5 rush yards
Achane has only hit this number once in his last four games, which might explain why his rushing total is a little suppressed. But the last two weeks he's been phased out either because the Dolphins were down huge early (on Thanksgiving in Green Bay) or because the Dolphins were up huge early via the pass game (in New England two weeks ago). The Jets have been terrible against the run basically since they fired Robert Saleh -- they're giving up over 200 yards rushing per game on average over their last seven weeks. Only two teams, the Patriots and Texans, failed to top 150 total rushing yards against them in that stretch, and four of those seven teams have crossed the 200-yard marker against Jeff Ulbrich's squad. We haven't gotten a signature breakaway run from Achane yet this year and it might be coming in Week 14.
Bet on De'Von Achane props at DraftKings sportsbook
Titans team total Over 21.5 points
Extraordinarily high number for a Will Levis-led offense! But I don't think it matters. The Titans, even as unpredictable as they are, should be able to have their way against a Jacksonville defense that wasn't good to begin with and should be eying Cabo reservations. Bringing back Trevor Lawrence early from injury only to see him suffer a brutal hit against the Texans during a tough 23-20 loss at home is a hard one to stomach. The Jags are 2-10 and all that's left is figuring out how many people get fired this offseason. Tennessee isn't playoff bound at 3-9, but stacking divisional wins and looking good on offense will go a long way toward optimism in Nashville. That matters for a first-year coaching staff and second-year QB in Levis, who has flashed at times this season. He should be able to get the ball downfield and Tony Pollard should have no problem ripping off some big runs here.
Bet on the Titans team total at FanDuel sportsbook
James Cook anytime TD (-130)
A little juicy but this number feels low for James Cook, who's been a stalwart for the Bills running game all season long. Cook's shown plenty of ability to rip off long runs, and while the Rams defense won't be battling the snow while playing at home in the comfy confines of SoFi Stadium, I think we'll see the Bills lean into Cook in the red zone given Josh Allen reinjured his left hand while running around against the 49ers during his signature MVP game on Sunday night in Week 13. The last time Allen hurt that hand, the Bills immediately locked into feeding Cook down by the goal line, and with a hefty 49.5 point total on the board, there should be more than enough room for several touchdowns here. I'd bet Cook is one of them and wouldn't be shocked at all if he was the first person to find the end zone, either. If you want a frisky bet on DraftKings (check out the DraftKings promo code here to get in the game) you can take both James Cook first TD/Kyren Williams second TD and Kyren first/Cook second. Each one is north of 20-1 and we know how much these two teams concentrate on feeding their bellcows down by the goal line.
Bet on James Cook TD props at DraftKings sportsbook