There might not be a better weekend of the year than Wild Card Weekend. Even with the expanded playoffs and some lesser teams sneaking into the postseason -- which results in a few larger spreads and maybe a blowout or two -- the slate is still loaded.
The quarterbacks playing this weekend are pretty stacked too, with Russell Wilson profiling as maybe the "worst" of the entire round. Two rookies get to make their playoff debuts as well and we have the top two MVP candidates making starts fresh off incredible campaigns.
Let's make some bets for every single game on the slate.
Wild Card Weekend best bets
Chargers (-2.5) vs. Texans
The Texans end up on the Saturday playoff slate in the first weekend almost every single year it feels like. I don't, however, recall them having a healthy starting quarterback, playing at home and being an underdog. It's a shame, because I was extremely excited about getting to bet Jim Harbaugh as a dog in the postseason. Oh well, I guess we'll just have to take him as a favorite, which he is, on the road, despite the Chargers being a wild-card team and playing in Houston, where the crowd will be rowdy and where things went extremely south for Joe Flacco and Co. last year when the Browns came in piping hot and got snuffed out by the Texans. The Chargers are a very different team, however. Justin Herbert isn't going to throw interceptions and the Harbaugh factor here cannot be overstated. Harbaugh's playoff record is pretty incredible, going 5-3 overall in three trips with the 49ers, with all three losses coming either in the Super Bowl or in the NFC title game and all coming down to the final play and by a single score. He's never lost a wild-card game and he's 2-0-1 against the spread in those spots. I just trust the coaching advantage here to give the Chargers a close victory.
Mark Andrews anytime TD (+155)
The Ravens are massive favorites (-9.5) at home against the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs and while I'd lean toward Pittsburgh against the spread here, the Ravens' explosiveness on offense, the Steelers' recent struggles in the pass game, the improved Ravens defense and Baltimore's ability to extend a lead really scares me. Instead I'm going to take a plus-money bet on the Ravens' star tight end. It's looking increasingly unlikely that Zay Flowers is going to be a huge factor in this game, if he plays at all. Andrews has been a focal point of the passing game over the last month-plus after a slow start to the season, garnering 30 targets in his last six games, despite the last four of those games being massive blowouts by Baltimore. And in those six games, Andrews has ... six touchdowns! One for each outing, actually -- he's Lamar's go-to guy in the red zone again and we're getting a pretty choice price here, with DraftKings offering 20 cents more than other spots.
Josh Allen over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
There's some blowout risk in this spot with Buffalo laying a juicy 8.5 points to a Broncos team starting a rookie quarterback on the road in his first playoff spot. But that's the only concern I've got with Allen's rushing yards total, a number at BetMGM that's 3 yards lower than it is across the industry. Allen has hit this total in seven of his 10 career playoff games and I'd expect him to get close to 50 rushing yards in a big spot for the Bills. He runs a decent amount anyway, but Allen really activates his legs when the weather gets cold and the Bills' season is on the line. Allen averages 6.8 yards per rush in the playoffs and should get somewhere in the range of 7-10 carries here depending on how close the game is. Even if Buffalo wants to pound James Cook in the run game, Allen will drop back enough and see running lanes to the point he should pick this up pretty early.
Josh Jacobs anytime TD (+105)
Count me in the camp that believes the Packers can upset the Eagles on the road in the playoffs. It'll be cold, the Philly crowd will be rowdy and this is a really good Eagles team. Jordan Love is kind of banged up and Christian Watson is done for the year. I don't think it matters, because the Packers are a really well-coached team with a bag of tricks on offense. If they can slow down Saquon Barkley and the Eagles rushing attack, they can force Jalen Hurts -- who hasn't played in close to a month at this point -- to be one-dimensional and try to win with his arm. The Packers should be able to run the ball reasonably effectively here and with a plus-money number on Jacobs to score at FanDuel, I'm extremely intrigued in dabbling. Green Bay FEEDS him when near the goal line and as much as the Packers leaned on him during the regular season in big spots, I think they'll flat out put a feeding bag on him and let him run in this game, especially in the red zone and by the goal line.
Buccaneers (-3) vs. Commanders
I'd like to look at some Brian Robinson unders in this spot, given the Bucs are at home, favored and generally a pass funnel on defense. But I'm also comfortable just backing Baker Mayfield in a big playoff spot with how Tampa's played over the last few weeks. The Bucs had a late-season hiccup in Dallas in prime time that put their playoff berth in jeopardy but other than that, they've got an unblemished record after their Week 11 bye. The competition wasn't exactly stiff, but now Todd Bowles is getting a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road and should be able to generate some turnovers, especially if the Washington offense becomes singularly focused on passing the ball. I trust Baker in big spots and this is a big spot. Tampa's just quietly one of the most consistent teams in the NFL and has a couple of young studs in Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan to ease the pressure on Mike Evans, who will be busy sparring (literally, most likely) with Marshon Lattimore.
Rams ML (+100) vs. Vikings
Shop around for the best number here, because the Rams, despite being underdogs against the spread, actually have a minus number to win outright at a lot of sportsbooks. Legal gambling is fun! I think they should be favored here, even if they're forced to play the game in Arizona because of the California wildfires happening near SoFi Stadium. The Vikings had an incredible season and are the first 14-win team to play a wild-card game. These two teams already squared off once this year, with Matthew Stafford posting one of his best games of the season. Stafford threw four touchdowns, averaged over 8 yards per pass attempt and completed 75% of his passes against Brian Flores' defense earlier this year, including an impressive 9 of 12 against the blitz. The Rams' key starters are fully healthy and they got a week of rest, essentially a bye. Kevin O'Connell's an incredible coach but Sean McVay is too -- I'd give the Rams the advantage at both coach and quarterback in this matchup.