The first week of the NHL season is already behind us, and each team has played at least two games. That means it is time to wildly overreact to the microscopic sample size we have in front of us.
After just seven days, it is time to declare some teams duds and some players complete busts. It's also time to crown a new Stanley Cup champion and hand out the Hart and Vezina trophies. As everyone knows, nothing ever changes in the NHL after the first two or three games of the season.
With that in mind, we have picked out one overreaction for each team after the first week of games. Are the Lightning toast? Is Jordan Binnington a Vezina contender? Will the Bruins ever lose a game without Patrice Bergeron?
Some of them might be more reasonable than others, but it's always fun to jump to conclusions with just a few data points at our disposal. Let's find out which teams are going to the Stanley Cup Final and which ones may as well call it a season in the updated NHL Power Rankings.
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All goals saved above average and expected goals numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Biggest Movers
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| Rk | Teams | Chg | Rcrd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 12-10-0 | |
Alexandar Georgiev will win the Vezina Trophy | Through his first three starts, Georgiev has posted some incredible numbers between the pipes. He has saved 4.56 goals above average, and he has a high-danger save percentage of .864.
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| 2 | 5 | 14-6-2 | |
Jack Eichel is going to win the Hart Trophy | Eichel has picked up right where he left off after leading the Golden Knights to a Stanley Cup last season. He has four points in four games, and Vegas has bulldozed teams with him on the ice at five-on-five. Eichel just needs to stay on the ice for a full season.
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| 3 | 1 | 15-5-1 | |
Teuvo Teravainen will score 30 goals | Teravainen has never scored more than 23 goals in a single season, and he is coming off a disappointing 12-goal season last year. However, he is already at four goals through four games this year, and Teravainen has the skill to light the lamp more often. I'm not sure he will continue shooting 50%, though.
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| 4 | 4 | 10-9-3 | |
Boston won't miss a beat without Patrice Bergeron | The Bruins are off to a strong start this season with David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy leading the way. That trio will keep the strong locker room culture intact on top of what they are able to do on the ice. It also helps to have the best goaltending tandem in the league.
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| 5 | 2 | 13-7-0 | |
The depth scoring woes are back | Dallas has made a deliberate effort to improve its scoring depth over the last couple of seasons, but it has just three goals in the first two games of 2023-24. I still think the Stars have plenty of offensive firepower, and the barrage is coming. They have too much talent not to light up the scoreboard.
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| 6 | 5 | 11-9-2 | |
Edmonton's goaltending will sink its Cup hopes | Considering goaltending was one of the biggest concerns coming into the season, I'm not sure how much of an overreaction this is. Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner have combined to allow 4.80 goals above average in three games.
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| 7 | 1 | 13-6-2 | |
Auston Matthews will score 100 goals | Matthews is scoring so much that he's already wearing out goal songs in Toronto. After starting the season with back-to-back hat tricks, Matthews looks poised to challenge his career high of 60 goals in a season. That may not be 100, but I'm sure the Maple Leafs will settle for 60-70 tallies.
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| 8 | 4 | 15-7-2 | |
Timo Meier is a bust coming off a contract year | In his first three games with the Devils this season, Meier has taken just four shots, and he has scored on 0.0% of them. Call me crazy, but I don't think that will continue for a guy who took 4.19 shots per game and scored 40 goals last season. New Jersey does need to find a way to get him going. Maybe try him on the same line as that Jack Hughes guy.
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| 9 | -- | 12-7-1 | |
Will Cuylle is going to be a star | The No. 60 overall pick in the 2020 draft, Cuylle scored 25 goals with the AHL's Hartford Wolf Pack last season. Three games into the 2023-24 season, he has his first NHL goal, but that's not all. Cuylle has played well next to Vincent Trocheck and Blake Wheeler, and their underlying numbers have been strong. The young winger is off to an encouraging start this year.
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| 10 | 2 | 7-12-4 | |
Evgeni Malkin has won another round against Father Time | Geno Malkin is 37 years old, but you wouldn't know it from watching the Penguins play their first few games. Malkin already has six points, and Pittsburgh has outscored opponents 4-0 with him on the ice at five-on-five. It is a very long season, but Malkin has looked rejuvenated so far.
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| 11 | 4 | 9-11-1 | |
The Sens are a very real problem in the East | Through the first three games, the Senators have looked like a team ready to take a significant step forward. Watching the top two lines get in on the forecheck and wreak havoc in the offensive zone has been wildly entertaining, and there is young talent all over the ice. Could this be me confirming my own preseason biases? Sure, but I'm riding with Ottawa until the evidence breaks the other way.
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| 12 | 10 | 9-10-2 | |
Alex DeBrincat was the best addition of the offseason | Talk about making an instant impact. After the Red Wings acquired DeBrincat from the Senators this offseason, all he has done is put up three goals and two assists in three games. He has already found a connection with Dylan Larkin, which is exactly what Detroit was hoping for when it brought DeBrincat into the mix.
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| 13 | 1 | 13-4-4 | |
Filip Gustavsson's 2022-23 season was a fluke | Last year, Gustavsson put the Wild on his back for a large stretch of the season, and it looked like that might continue after his shutout in the Wild's season-opening win over the Panthers. Then he allowed seven goals on 33 shots against the Maple Leafs. After last season, I think Gustavsson has earned the benefit of the doubt following just one bad outing.
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| 14 | 4 | 8-9-5 | |
Bo Horvat's contract will age poorly | After arriving on Long Island last season, Horvat scored at a 19-goal pace. Through two games this year, Horvat is still looking for his first point. It hasn't been a red-hot start for Horvat and the Islanders' offense, but he has taken eight shots. His career shooting percentage is 13.6%, so if he keeps firing, he will eventually be worth his $8.5 million cap hit.
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| 15 | 5 | 10-6-3 | |
Rick Tocchet has fixed Brock Boeser | Since Tocchet took over for Bruce Boudreau on Jan. 22, Boeser has been excellent in the offensive end. Not only is Boeser on an 82-game pace for 28 goals and 71 points, but he leads the Canucks in expected goals. If Boeser can keep this up, Vancouver will have a very formidable top six.
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| 16 | 6 | 11-8-3 | |
Cam Talbot was not the answer in net | Much like the Oilers, the Kings entered the season hoping a talented roster would overcome a weak goaltending tandem. Through a few games, that has not been the case. Holdover Pheonix Copley had a brutal first start, and Talbot didn't look terribly sharp in his first appearance either.
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| 17 | 6 | 12-9-1 | |
The Panthers are in big trouble without Ekblad and Montour | Florida came into the season knowing that it would be without its top two defensemen for a while, but the early returns on the replacements are very concerning. Dmitry Kulikov and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have been underwhelming in the early going, but that isn't a huge shock given they both have a lot of tread on their tires.
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| 18 | 5 | 12-7-3 | |
The Flames are still the exact same team | Last season, the Flames missed the playoffs despite having excellent underlying numbers at five-on-five. Through three games in 2023-24, Calgary is 1-1-1, and it has posted solid expected goals numbers in both of its losses. That is an all too familiar story for Flames fans. Ironically, the Flames got shelled in their only win so far, but Jacob Markstrom came up big in goal to steal one.
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| 19 | 2 | 18-4-0 | |
Connor Hellebuyck has hit a wall at 30 | The 2020 Vezina Trophy winner is a top five netminder in the league, but he has gotten off to a bad start this season. Through two games, he has allowed 13 goals and his -5.52 goals saved above average rank dead last. I'm still going to need to see a lot more than a couple poor starts to be convinced Hellebuyck has fallen off.
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| 20 | 4 | 11-7-2 | |
The Bolts will miss the playoffs | People have been predicting the downfall of the Lightning for a couple years now, but their start to the 2023-24 season has raised some concerns. Tampa is getting mauled at five-on-five, and that is less than ideal considering Andrei Vasilevskiy will be recovering from back surgery for a couple months. The Bolts can't afford a slow start in a competitive Atlantic Division.
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| 21 | 4 | ||
Arizona is a wild card team | The Coyotes faced the Devils and Rangers in their first two games, and they didn't look outmatched. In fact, they looked like the better team for decent portions of each game. Matt Dumba and Sean Durzi, offseason additions on the blue line, are already contributing. Logan Cooley has fit right in at the NHL level. I'm not sure Arizona can keep this up for a full season, but this is a fun group to watch.
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| 22 | 4 | 10-12-1 | |
Jordan Binnington is back | Through their first two games of the season, the Blues have found the back of the net just twice. Despite that, they are 1-0-1 because Jordan Binnington has stood on his head. St. Louis needs a bounce-back year from Binnington, and he looks like the goaltender who led the team to a Stanley Cup in 2019. It's still too early to tell whether he has completely shaken off his recent struggles.
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| 23 | 6 | 11-9-1 | |
Devon Levi may not be a quick fix in goal after all | Coming into this season, the Sabres chose to ride with Levi as their starting goaltender. The 21-year-old had a tremendous college career at Northeastern, but he might not be ready to carry the hopes and dreams of Buffalo just yet. In his three starts this year, Levi has a save percentage of .890 and has allowed 1.61 goals above average.
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| 24 | 1 | 7-12-3 | |
Special teams is the Preds' Achilles' heel | Nashville has actually posted some impressive five-on-five metrics under new head coach Andrew Brunette, but the power play ranks 21st (11.8%), and the penalty kill ranks 31st (60.0%). There are signs the power play might turn around, but the penalty kill has cost Nashville at least two games already.
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| 25 | 6 | 11-10-1 | |
The Kraken will fall back into the West's basement | Last season, the Kraken led the league in five-on-five shooting percentage, and they rode that to a playoff berth and a first-round upset of the Avalanche. Through the first three games of this season, the hockey gods have exacted regression revenge. Seattle is shooting 2.13%, 31st in the NHL, and the team is still looking for its first win. Was last year's offense a flash in the pan?
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| 26 | 3 | 7-12-2 | |
Chicago has the best goaltending duo in the NHL | As great as Connor Bedard has been, and he has been great, Arvid Soderblom and Petr Mrazek have been just as good. Those two have kept Chicago in every game it has played so far, combining for 5.22 goals saved above average. That may not last for the entire season, but they deserve to be recognized for their hot start.
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| 27 | 4 | 9-10-3 | |
Sean Couturier is still a No. 1 center | After Couturier missed the entire 2022-23 season due to back surgery, there were plenty of questions about how he would look to start this season. Thus far, Couturier has been very impressive. The Flyers have controlled play with him on the ice, and Couturier potted a filthy penalty shot against the Canucks on Tuesday. That has to be a sight for sore eyes in Philly.
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| 28 | -- | 8-9-3 | |
Frank Vatrano is the best offensive player in Anaheim | Vatrano has suddenly evolved into a goal-scoring machine in the offseason. He powered the Ducks to a win over the Hurricanes with a hat trick on Sunday, and Vatrano leads Anaheim in expected goals. As great as that was, I think those Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry fellows are still awfully good at hockey.
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| 29 | 5 | 14-6-1 | |
The veteran core is cooked | It has been an ugly start to the season for the usual suspects in Washington. Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are all still looking for their first point. That would be fine if the Caps were controlling play with those players on the ice, but that hasn't been the case either. New coach Spencer Carbery needs to spark those players or it will be a long year in D.C.
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| 30 | -- | 7-11-2 | |
Nick Suzuki might not be a true first-line center | The Habs are still very much in rebuilding mode, but this is an important season for Suzuki and Cole Caufield to show they are ready to be the true cornerstones of the franchise. Caufield is off to a hot start, but Suzuki has been less impressive in the box score and at five-on-five.
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| 31 | 4 | 9-9-2 | |
It's time to worry about Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson | Sillinger and Johnson, both high draft picks from the last few seasons, are supposed to be the Blue Jackets' future at center. However, it has been a rocky start after a solid 2022-23 season. Johnson was scratched for the season-opener, and both players have struggled to tread water at even strength. That isn't ideal, but there are bound to be ups and downs for 20-year-old prospects.
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| 32 | -- | 7-12-5 | |
A historically bad season is coming in San Jose | Coming into opening night, most thought the Sharks would be the worst team in the league, and they have looked the part in the early going. Don't be fooled by that shootout loss to the Avs. San Jose surrendered 52 shots and 5.05 expected goals. Mackenzie Blackwood single-handedly prevented a blowout.
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