Team USA's group stage in the 2024 Olympics really came down to a single opponent: Serbia. Nikola Jokic's squad represented the only real test Team USA would face in the opening round, and the Americans passed it with flying colors. LeBron James and Kevin Durant led Team USA to a 26-point victory, and now, things get a bit easier. Serbia ranks No. 4 in the world according to FIBA's official rankings. Wednesday's opponent, South Sudan, ranks 33rd.
Yet when Team USA played an exhibition against South Sudan in the buildup to the Olympics, it won by just a single point. James heroics saved the day last time, but what should we expect in the rematch? Here are our best bets for Wednesday's battle between the heavily-favored Americans and the underdog South Sudanese.
Team USA vs. South Sudan
I'm torn on the spread for this game. It would be pretty tempting just to assume that Team USA, embarrassed by how close the last game against South Sudan was, explodes out of the gate and makes a point of playing for the blowout. That might be the case. But that's really more of a 10-minute answer than a 40-minute answer. It's pretty hard to maintain that energy if you're actually up 30 in the second half. It's just much easier to imagine Team USA dominating the first quarter and then easing off of the throttle. There are Team USA -10.5 lines available for the first quarter, which sound much better to me than full-game lines. But if you're going the whole game, I think South Sudan scoring a backdoor cover is the likeliest outcome here. This game is just going to mean more to them than Team USA once the outcome is decided, and they've already played them close once before. The Pick: South Sudan +29.5
I tend to lean toward offense in games I don't expect to be especially close just because when the effort is minimal late, the offense has a major advantage. The last game between these teams had a 201-point total, and despite that game's close margin, Team USA's athletic advantage remains considerable. I'm expecting Team USA to race out of the gates with a big lead and then for both teams to trade buckets down the stretch en route to a high-scoring final. The Pick: Over 191
I cannot stress this enough: if you see Jayson Tatum props, grab them. This game, and the next one, are going to be so one-sided that Steve Kerr won't need to make any actual basketball decisions when coaching them. The entire goal against South Sudan and Puerto Rico is going to be squashing the Tatum news cycle that has overtaken the team after his surprising DNP-CD on Sunday. He's going to overcorrect just to get the media and fans off his back. We'll know what his actual rotation plan is when the knockout stage begins. Unfortunately, I don't see Tatum props available at the moment. Keep an eye out. If you see a point-total line that looks reasonable, take it.
But without Tatum lines, I'm going to work backwards. If Tatum is going to play more, who plays less? LeBron James and Stephen Curry probably do on balance, but their stature requires they at least start both halves. Kevin Durant needs these games as ramp-ups for the important ones. You could argue the same is true for Derrick White as he joined the team late. Tyrese Haliburton will likely draw more minutes in this one as well, simply because there's no reason for Kerr not to empty the bench. Tatum isn't drawing minutes from the same pool as the big men. Therefore, we're probably looking at under props for one or more of the remaining perimeter players: Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards or Jrue Holiday. I'm going to take Booker's under simply because he played with the starters on Sunday. I expect James and Curry to get their shots up with that unit, so let's say Booker defers, and Haliburton and Tatum eat into his minutes. Unless he gets hot early, he's probably not going to look for his own shot too much. The Pick: Booker Under 8.5 Points
