2026 National League win totals: Pirates have value if they can hit, Dodgers have no reason to push
SportsLine MLB expert Matt Severance dishes two Over and two Under picks for the National League.
While I believe at least six teams could win the AL pennant, the Los Angeles Dodgers are so loaded it sure appears there will be a three-peat in the National League, if not as World Series champions, barring major injury. That an NL team takes home the Fall Classic is -145, with a Junior Circuit club at +125. That it's an NL West team winning it all is +190, and that's all about the Dodgers.
That doesn't mean L.A. will top its MLB-high regular-season win total, however, and I'm actually leaning Under as I will explain below. The Over/Under for total MLB teams winning at least 100 games this season is 1.5, and I lean Under with no clubs coming close in 2025. Think I'd also lean Under 1.5 teams losing 100 games at the nice price of +215.
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I believe the most fascinating managerial situation in the majors this season is in the National League, and that's former University of Tennessee coach Tony Vitello taking over as manager of the San Francisco Giants -- when does one graduate from coach to manager? It marks the first time a big-league team has hired a manager directly from a college without any experience as a professional coach. With two eventual first-round draft picks and four second-rounders, Tennessee beat Texas A&M to win the school's first baseball national championship last year, so it's not like Vitello doesn't have the credentials.
The Giants' win total is set at 80.5, and I don't have a huge opinion there but do like them at -130 head-to-head vs. the Cleveland Guardians (+100) of the AL Central. DraftKings has some fun head-to-head win bets. San Francisco hosts the first MLB game of the season Wednesday night vs. the Yankees. Here are four win totals I do like:
Pittsburgh Pirates Over 78.5 wins (-115)
A few people I respect are on Pittsburgh to win the NL Central at +600. I like my Cubs for that, in no shock, but don't rule the Pirates out if everything breaks right. Ownership finally opened up the collective wallet this offseason to improve what was MLB's second-worst offense in 2025 by adding first baseman Ryan O'Hearn and outfielder Marcell Ozuna in free agency and trading for third baseman Brandon Lowe. No. 1 overall prospect and shortstop Konnor Griffin will not start the season in the Show but showed signs of stardom this spring and is still among the NL ROY favorites at +310. He'll be up by summer.
If the offense can simply be league average (hello, Oneil Cruz), the rotation looks promising, headed by of course reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and MLB ERA king Paul Skenes. No. 2 starter Mitch Keller is underrated. Another once-touted pitching prospect in Jared Jones should be ready by May after missing all of 2025 following Tommy John surgery. FanGraphs projects the Bucs with 83 wins and the SportsLine Projection Model 77.7.
Colorado Rockies Over 54.5 wins (-115)
Colorado will absolutely finish with a losing record for an eighth straight season and won a franchise-record-low 43 games in 2025, finishing well Under the team total of 59.5. The team's run differential of minus-424 was the lowest in modern history. But the Rockies did start playing somewhat better toward the end of 2025 to avoid the MLB-record-low of 41 victories, and 54.5 is a really tiny number. There is optimism since the team finally overhauled the front office and coaching staff, both way overdue changes.
And simply playing in the thin air of Coors Field is going to allow the Rockies to steal wins here and there as teams will be gassed, in series finales especially, and ready to leave Denver for their next destination. Ownership did add some veterans in free agency like Michael Lorenzen and Jose Quintana to try to stop the bleeding, although it still will mostly be kids playing. FanGraphs has the Rockies at a league-low 66 wins and the model has them at 52.6.
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New York Mets Under 90.5 wins (-110)
Teams that undergo a major roster overhaul like the New York Mets did this offseason generally don't see an immediately good return on that change. At one point this spring, the Mets roster included 13 players who were not with the organization when New York dropped its 2025 finale to the Marlins to complete the collapse from best record in the majors in mid-June to missing the playoffs entirely.
Of the nine players who started the most games at each position in 2025, only shortstop Francisco Lindor is slated to start at the same position in 2026 and he's coming off surgery to repair his hamate bone. Lot of questions in the rotation after new ace Freddy Peralta and at the back end of the bullpen with Edwin Diaz now with the Dodgers, because of course anyone good is with the Dodgers (see below). FanGraphs has the Mets at 88 wins and the model has 88.2.
Los Angeles Dodgers Under 103.5 wins (-115)
Enjoy this MLB season because we might not have another one until 2028 thanks in large part to the Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker to a free-agent deal worth $60 million per season. Is Tucker a very good player? Unquestionably, but not worth $60 million. Money does not matter to the Dodgers, who will have a record payroll in 2026 and will pay more in luxury taxes than the total payrolls of about half the league. Baseball must get a salary cap. In 2022, the Dodgers seemed to be pushing to win as many regular-season games as possible. They got to 111 but flamed out in the playoffs.
The past two seasons, Manager Dave Roberts has been more about the guys pacing themselves and keeping everyone as healthy as possible for when games truly matter. The club has won 93 and 98 RS games but then the title. This is an older roster, with seven of the nine regular position players on the wrong side of 30, and guys like former MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman regressed in 2025. The Dodgers have topped this big number only four times since moving to L.A. FanGraphs has 96 wins and the model 99.2. I'll really be surprised if this team wins 104.
