The first potential elimination game of MLB's Divisional Round is tonight from San Diego as the Padres try to extend their season in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers. If the usually reliable Friars' bullpen was up to the task in the first two games, San Diego might instead be playing for a three-game sweep. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:
This is the late game of the NLDS doubleheader tonight, with a scheduled 9:30 ET first pitch on FS1, although it might start late depending on if Dodgers-Braves Game 3 runs over. I probably don't have to tell you the weather is utterly perfect in San Diego, with winds blowing in slightly. At -135 on the money line at DraftKings, the Padres are taking 57% of bets but only 43% of handle. On the total of 7, there's heavy action to the Over.
On the updated series line, Milwaukee is -1100 and San Diego +800. I'm personally rooting for the winner of this series to go on and win the Fall Classic because neither franchise has won a title yet. Teams that have won the first two games at home in Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format have gone on to win the series 33 of 36 times (92%). No team has rallied from an 0-2 hole in a best-of-5 since the Yankees dropped the first two of the 2017 ALDS in Cleveland.
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Brewers vs. Padres MLB same-game parlay
- San Diego no bat bottom 9
- Alt Under 9.5
DraftKings SGP price: +154 (subject to change)
The Padres blew a 2-0 lead in dropping Game 1 and then took one of the biggest gut-punch losses in team history Sunday. With often-unhittable closer Mason Miller on the mound and San Diego leading 3-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, it sure looked like we were headed to southern California tied 1-1. But rising Brewers superstar Jackson Chourio played hero again with the game-winning, two-run single with two outs in the 4-3 victory. Twice previously this season, Miller was asked for a six-out save and got it without any issues.
Milwaukee won 42 games in come-from-behind fashion during the regular season, tied for fifth most in MLB. It is not hyperbole to say Sunday was the biggest playoff comeback win in Brewers history, as it was the first last-inning comeback in the postseason that began with Milwaukee trailing. I wonder if Miller was tiring in the ninth after pitching a 1-2-3 eighth as he walked the bases loaded in the ninth. That said, the pitch Chourio hit for the win was a 101.3 mph fastball.
The Padres do have one of the best home-field advantages in the sport at Petco Park, where they are 53-30, including their two easy wins over the Cubs in the Wild-Card Round. But they have to find a clutch hit, as they are 3-for-18 with men in scoring position in the first two games and have stranded 20 base-runners.
San Diego turns to right-hander Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA) tonight. The Canadian was limited to eight regular-season starts due to a flexor strain in his right elbow. He was activated off the injured list in early September and is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in five outings â albeit no more than five innings in any. That includes allowing one run over 3.1 innings last Wednesday in Game 2 of the Wild-Card Round against the Cubs. In five career postseason outings spanning 22 innings, Pivetta owns a 2.86 ERA.
Pivetta didn't face Milwaukee this year but did once in 2025 at Petco Park. He took a no-decision, giving up three runs over 5.2 innings. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 5.1 innings, 5.9 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich eats Pivetta's lunch, going 7-for-18 in his career, with two homers, two doubles and nine RBI; Yelich is a +870 longshot to homer tonight.
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Trade acquisition Dustin May gets the ball for Milwaukee, and he actually was worse after coming over in deal with the Cardinals. He is 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in 10 outings with the Brew Crew. He was quite good his first two with the team but went 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings. His walk rate elevated from 7.6 in St. Louis to 9.3 with Milwaukee.
May didn't go more than three innings in his final three, so I wouldn't expect him to be out there long. His Over/Under outs total is 8.5 and Pivetta's 10.5 -- with a rested bullpen led by closer Trevor Megill and setup men Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby. That trio has yet to allow a run in 6.2 innings of this series.
As a long-time former Dodgers, May has thrown 86 career innings against the Padres, by far more than any other big-league club. He faced San Diego three times this year, twice with St. Louis, and was 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in 22.0 innings. May has nine career playoff appearances spanning 14.0 innings but all with the Dodgers and not since 2020. He's 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA.
The model forecasts May at 5.0 innings, 4.9 strikeouts, 4.2 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. is 7-for-29 career against him with a homer and double. Jackson Merrill is 0-for-10 with four strikeouts.
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Will use Padres not to bat in the bottom ninth at +105 to increase the parlay price instead of San Diego money line at -135. I do think the Friars get one game and that crowd will be a factor. Now the full bullpen is good to go and no way Mason Miller struggles again. Right? Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
