I need Pirates ace and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes to break out of his slump, because I'm getting a bit tired of writing about him. But it's still an event whenever Skenes takes the mound, and it might be time to ask if there something wrong with the big righty as he is winless in a career-high-tying four straight starts ahead of tonight's home outing against the Dodgers.
It's a first pitch of 6:40 p.m. ET from PNC Park and should be a great atmosphere with the champs in town for the only time this season and facing Skenes. While it might change by first pitch, the Bucs are (slight) underdogs behind Skenes for the first time since his massive Opening Day struggles in a loss at the Mets.
Dodgers vs. Pirates same-game parlay
- Pittsburgh +1.5
- Alt Under 9.5
FanDuel SGP price: +103
Even the best pitchers go through a bit of a funk in the 162-game grind of an MLB season. But since entering the seventh with a no-hitter on May 12 vs. Colorado for a second straight dominant outing, Skenes is 0-3 in four starts and has allowed 15 runs and 26 hits over 20 total innings â not going six in any of them. The most runs Skenes (6-5, 3.09 ERA overall this year) had previously given up over any four-game stretch was 10.
There have been other stretches in his young career where Skenes has gone a bit without a win due to lack of run support, and he got only eight total runs in his five May starts. But that was not the case last Wednesday in Houston as Skenes was handed a 4-2 lead entering the fifth, but the Bucs lost 11-9. While he isn't necessarily walking a ton of guys in this four-game stretch with six, although that's high for him, Skenes is running up pitch counts. He got to a career-high 109 in that Astros start in just 4.2 innings.
"Throwing too many balls; them fouling pitches off," Skenes said were the reasons for his elevated pitch count. "I just got to get ahead." He hasn't gotten higher than 61% for his first-pitch strikes in the past four.
Through his first nine starts of 2026, opponents hit .109 against Skenes' four-seam fastball and sinker, going 10-for-92. Over his last four starts, they are hitting .333 (13-for-39). Skenes' hits-per-nine-innings rate is 11.7 in this span, whereas he gave up more than four hits in a game just once during his first nine starts. He also had a total of seven walks in those outings.
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Yet via Statcast, Skenes is still having a better year than his 2025 Cy Young campaign. For example, his 2026 xBA is .197, his xSLG .241 and xERA 2.30. A season ago, those numbers overall finished at .202, .321 and 2.65. If you had wagered $100 on all of his starts this year for Pittsburgh to win, you would be down $318.
It is way too early to say Skenes' chances of repeating as the NL Cy Young winner are cooked, but he has risen from the clear favorite to +1200 fourth favorite. He should be very fired up tonight being from the Los Angeles area (although he grew up an Angels fan) and facing the two-time defending champions. Pittsburgh has never lost five straight Skenes starts and only lost four in a row of his once before, in May 2025, but he largely pitched very well in those.
As a rookie in 2024, Skenes was hit around a bit by the Dodgers. But in two starts against them last year, he was 2-0 without a run allowed in 12 innings, with just seven hits and one walk and 17 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. His final win in 2025 was at PNC Park on Sept. 4, 2025, against L.A. and probably clinched the Cy Young.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Skenes at 5.5 innings, 6.3 strikeouts, 4.5 hits allowed and 1.7 earned runs tonight. Already without touted rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin, who is on the injured list, outfielder Oneil Cruz (14 HR, team-best 44 RBI) is day-to-day after he suffered a cut on his hand Saturday and was held out Sunday.
Another of the team's top hitters, second baseman Brandon Lowe (team-best 15 HR, 41 RBI), is also day-to-day after taking a foul ball off his knee Saturday and being held out Sunday. But that the Bucs were off Monday bodes well for both to play.
Skenes facing Shohei Ohtani will be must-see TV, with Ohtani 2-for-11 with a homer and six strikeouts against him. We barely missed Skenes vs. Ohtani dueling on the mound as Shohei (+550 for NL Cy) is scheduled to pitch Wednesday. I might have flown to Pittsburgh to see that.
Tonight for the Dodgers, it's recent trade addition and lefty Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.74 ERA). Those are the season-long numbers for the 31-year-old, but he has been better with L.A. Since his debut in Arizona after being acquired from the Blue Jays, Lauer is 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA in two appearances spanning 10.2 innings.
I can't really justify Pirates ML with them possibly down two key hitters and Skenes facing such a good lineup -- but I do think he will bounce back with a strong outing and keep this a close, lower-scoring game. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
