MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Benny Sieu

At most sportsbooks, you can wager on whether a team will have a no-hitter in a given game. For example, it's +30000 at FanDuel. I'll never recommend that, but I'm not kidding when I say Pirates ace Paul Skenes might throw his first MLB no-no Thursday in a series finale against a mediocre St. Louis Cardinals team that has somewhat flummoxed him. The way the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner has been dealing of late, I'm not ruling it out. First pitch is at 12:35 ET from PNC Park.

Cardinals-Pirates BetRivers parlay (+112)

  • Pirates -1
  • Alt Under 9.5

I like Skenes (4-1, 2.48 ERA) a lot more today than I did even 48 hours ago after reading that ahead of Monday's game against the Cardinals he rented a bounce house as a part of a belated celebration for Bucs stud rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin, who turned 20 last Friday. Love that.

Skenes, the +180 favorite to repeat as NL Cy Young, had that shockingly bad season-opening start at the New York Mets, which looks even worse now with the state of the not-Amazins, but has been completely locked in since. He has allowed just three runs and 10 hits with 29 strikeouts to five walks over his past five outings, with a 0.95 ERA. Pittsburgh is actually giving Skenes some run support this year and is 4-1 in those five starts.

So why mention the no-hitter possibility? Last Friday in Milwaukee, Skenes pitched 6.2 perfect innings before allowing a single to Jake Bauers. That tied for the third-longest bid for a perfect game by a Pirates pitcher during the expansion era (since 1961).

Skenes finished with seven scoreless innings, one hit allowed, seven strikeouts and no walks. In doing so, the 23-year-old became only the sixth Pirates pitcher in the modern era (since 1901) with at least seven scoreless, one or zero hits allowed, seven strikeouts and zero walks. 

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He enters today with a 16-inning scoreless streak, and Skenes' 2.01 ERA through his first 61 MLB starts is the lowest by any pitcher through his first 60 during the Live Ball Era (since 1920). The SportsLine Projection Model has him at 5.4 innings on Thursday, with 6.1 strikeouts, 3.9 hits allowed, 1.4 earned runs and 1.2 walks.

"I think sometimes we lose sight of the fact that he came up two years ago, and he's in his third season in the big leagues," manager Don Kelly said. "He's continuing to get better, which is amazing considering what he's already done in the game. To put Opening Day behind him and pitch the way that he's pitched since just speaks to who he is."

Pittsburgh, if you were wondering, has never had a perfect game – Harvey Haddix famously came up short in extra innings in 1959. The franchise's last no-hitter was a combined effort in 1997 and the last by an individual was via John Candelaria on Aug. 9, 1976.

Skenes would surely settle for just a win today, as he's 0-4 in six career starts vs. the Cardinals despite a 2.39 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 41 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. St. Louis is the only team he has faced at least three times that Skenes doesn't have a win against. 

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Thursday will be the season and Cardinals debut for right-hander Hunter Dobbins. The 26-year-old went 4-1 with a 4.13 ERA in 13 appearances (11 starts, 61.0 innings) in 2025 as a rookie with Boston but tore his right ACL during a fielding play last July. The Red Sox shipped him to the Cardinals in the offseason among the trade package for Willson Contreras. Over five Triple-A starts this season, Dobbins was 3-0 with a 4.37 ERA. He hasn't faced Pittsburgh.

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The best of the best in the sports world often manufacture motivation. I'm quite sure that Skenes knows he hasn't beaten the division-rival Cardinals yet, and his Bucs are trying to avoid an embarrassing four-game home sweep. Will take -1 instead of a -240 money line for a better parlay price. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.