Will they or won't they?
"They" in this instance is the Detroit Tigers, and the vague query above centers on whether or not they'll trade their ace and back-to-back American League Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in advance of Major League Baseball's Aug. 3 trade deadline.
Whatever the outcome -- whether Skubal stays or goes -- the decorated 29-year-old left-hander and pending free agent will probably be the leading story of the deadline. In related matters, he's once again performing at a high level:
If not for the arthroscopic elbow surgery that cost him more than five weeks, he'd likely be in the mix for a third straight Cy Young award. In addition to the above numbers, he boasts a 152 ERA+ and a 2.85 FIP, and his 8.91 K/BB ratio would easily lead the majors if he had a qualifying number of innings.
Yes, Skubal is a "rental" player insofar as the deadline is concerned, but no other talent who might realistically be available will move the needle like he will for an aspiring World Series contender.
With all that laid out, let's now have a look at which teams might be a sensible fit for Skubal this season, starting around, oh, Aug. 4 or so.
Detroit Tigers
Let's start with the incumbents. Yes, the Tigers are at this writing seven games below .500, but at the same time, they're a workable 4 ½ games out of the third and final wild-card spot. Yes, they're behind a number of teams in that particular queue, but the margins are such that they can't really commit to selling just yet. Additionally, the Tigers, based on run differential, have played like a team that's seven games above .500. That raises their profile moving forward, and it's all a compelling case to keep Skubal for a stretch drive push to make a third straight trip to the playoffs. Take your shot at a deep October run, and then give Skubal the qualifying offer heading into free agency.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves enjoyed a scorching start to the season, but they're below .500 since June 1. That's in part because their rotation has been hit hard by injuries. Co-ace Spencer Strider is likely done for the season with elbow woes, and Spencer Schwellenbach has no clear timetable for his return from February elbow surgery. Getting Skubal and plugging him in front of/just behind Chris Sale would give the Braves the means to fend off the Phillies in the NL East and also give them a powerhouse rotation front in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If it's a big name possibly on the move, then we're honor-bound to cite the Dodgers as a possible destination. The Dodgers once again have plenty of upside in their loaded-on-paper rotation, but true to form, they also have plenty of injury concerns. The Dodgers, in addition to winning back-to-back World Series titles, also have a strong farm system from which to deal. Skubal would give them a known quantity No. 1 starter in the playoffs, and the rest they can figure out based on who's healthy among other big names like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow.
Chicago Cubs
Speaking of pitching injuries, the Cubs basically have an entire (quite good) rotation on the injured list right now, and they won't be getting anything from Justin Steele and Cade Horton the rest of the way. Yes, the North Siders recently swung a deal for veteran right-hander Aaron Civale, but he's more of a stopgap. The Cubs still harbor hopes of catching the Brewers in the NL Central and otherwise maintaining a grip on playoff position. Getting an ace like Skubal would help them achieve all that and be positioned to make serious noise in October.
Tampa Bay Rays
The AL East-leading Rays have a number of needs ahead of the deadline, and "known quantity at the front of the rotation" may be the most pressing. Shane McClanahan may eventually run into workload concerns in his comeback season, and 35-year-old Nick Martinez may eventually run into regression concerns. Skubal would give them a level of certainty and excellence at the front end that they presently lack.
San Diego Padres
It's by no means apparent that the Padres should be buyers leading up to the deadline, but the assumption is that aggressive lead decision-maker AJ Preller will be in "go for it" mode, as he almost always is. They'd have to get creative in order to pry away Skubal because the farm system is so thinned-out, but it's possible, even in a deadline market that figures to favor the seller. As for the rotation, Michael King is a fine one, but behind him there's a lack of depth and predictability. That's the case even if, as expected, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove return at some point in August. Getting, say, 10 starts from Skubal down the stretch would greatly aid the Padres' efforts to make one last push with their current core.
Toronto Blue Jays
Dylan Cease is in the Cy Young mix in his first season with the Jays, but the rest of the Toronto rotation is in need of help. Any eventual return of Max Scherzer doesn't figure to help matters. Shane Bieber will always be an injury risk (and he's been broadly ineffective this season), and rookie Trey Yesavage has struggled with consistency. The Jays have ground to make up if they're going to get a shot at defending their American League pennant, and the addition of Skubal would give them perhaps the best one-two punch in all of baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers
Consider the Crew to be the dark horse long-shot pick in the Skubal derby. This is not the kind of move they tend to make, at least of late, but it would be evocative of their legendary deadline deal for walk-year ace CC Sabathia back in 2008. Skubal would be a fit because the Brewers will need innings if they're going to fend off the Cubs, and they need a second ace alongside Jacob Misiorowski if they're going to make a deep playoff charge (and maybe win the World Series for the first time in franchise history). Brandon Woodruff is done for the season, and Kyle Harrison is presently laid up with elbow problems. On top of all that, Misiorowski's in line for a big jump in innings this season.
