It's a full slate of baseball action Friday and no NBA or NHL, but the United States opens World Cup action with a 9 ET start against Paraguay in Los Angeles, so how about a home run/Christian Pulisic goalscoring parlay? Sadly, the Colorado Rockies are not home this weekend, so no HR plays from hitter-friendly Coors Field. But the Athletics do host the Rockies in Las Vegas, and earlier A's games this week there vs. Milwaukee resulted in a home run explosion. That Vegas ballpark when the team moves there in a couple of years might be even more skewed toward hitters than Coors is.
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Those interested in MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, should take a look at what SportsLine expert Matt Severance is playing for Friday's games.
Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Last Friday, my home run picks were a pair of former NL MVPs in the Braves' Ronald Acuna Jr. and Brewers' Christian Yelich, and sadly I couldn't make it back-to-back Fridays cashing. Acuna at least cashed Over 1.5 total bases with two hits in a home loss to Pittsburgh. Yelich was 0-for-5 at Coors Field when Milwaukee scored nine runs. As usual, all HR picks mean I also like O1.5 total bases for said hitter.
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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, June 12
- Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+420, FanDuel)
- Matt Vierling, Tigers (+920, DraftKings)
Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+420, FanDuel)
No wind/weather concerns in Milwaukee with that retractable roof as the Brewers host the Phillies at 7:40 ET in a series opener and potential National League playoff preview. I certainly think both teams get there with Milwaukee atop the NL Central and Philadelphia currently holding a wild card spot and looking like a different club under interim manager Don Mattingly.
If I wasn't looking at stellar young Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio, who has the talent to win an NL MVP some day, then I probably would have done a separate single-game parlay on this game simply as it features incomparable Milwaukee right-hander Jacob Misiorowski on the mound.
The two hottest hitters in the majors over the past seven days have been the Giants' Matt Chapman and Chourio, and I somewhat disqualified Chapman from consideration tonight for two reasons. The first is that San Francisco is home at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. The second is that Chapman faces an excellent pitcher tonight in the Cubs' Ben Brown (1.74 ERA).
Chourio only has four homers but has been limited to 32 games due to an early-season stint on the injured list. The 22-year-old Venezuelan is rolling now, slashing .343/.368/.743 with four homers and eight RBI over the past seven days. He enters with a two-game dinger streak. Granted, those both came in that Las Vegas minor-league band box, but Chourio has been hitting all month with a 1.190 OPS and all four homers have come in June.
He faces a big-time struggling starting pitcher in Phillies rookie righty Andrew Painter (1-7, 6.21 ERA, 11 HRs allowed). I wonder how much longer the team can keep in in the rotation if this continues, although Painter was a very touted prospect. The 23-year-old actually won his first start of the year but hasn't claimed a victory since. On the road, he is 0-3 with a 6.65 ERA and .356 opponents' batting average. This marks Painter's first career start vs. Milwaukee.
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Matt Vierling, Tigers, (+920, DraftKings)
I did not get up this morning expecting to care about Detroit outfielder Matt Vierling, a 29-year-old journeyman. I'm not even sure Mrs. Vierling, if there is one, would play her husband in DFS tonight when the Tigers open a series in Cleveland with a 7:10 ET first pitch. But anyone can do home run picks on the superstars of MLB, and you sure can't beat this price. It does not appear weather will factor at Progressive Field with winds somewhat blowing across the diamond and clear skies.
Vierling is symptomatic of why Detroit likely isn't going anywhere this season -- although the team is surging lately -- even with the news that ace Tarik Skubal will return Saturday, much sooner than expected from elbow surgery. The Tigers have a bunch of punch-and-judy hitters. Vierling does play pretty much every day as a good defender in center field but is batting just .205 with four homers and an OPS of .612.
That sums up the Detroit lineup, honestly. Just one Toger has more than seven homers. Former No .1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson was supposed to provide power but has regressed badly from his 31-homer campaign in 2025. But my No. 1 criteria for picking these home runs are a batter's career splits vs. a pitcher. And while Vierling doesn't have great splits off too many guys, he has gone yard twice in 15 at-bats off Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee (1-7, 4.09).
Bibee is a good pitcher but he was both unlucky and bad entering June at 0-7 with a 4.57 ERA. The righty became the first pitcher in Cleveland's 125-year franchise history to go winless in his first 13 starts and only the 12th Opening Day starter league-wide since 1976 to make at least 10 starts and not earn a win before June. But Bibee threw eight shutout innings at Texas last time out to win. It was a rare game this season he didn't allow a homer, having surrendered 13 in 14 starts and eight in eight at home.
Also consider Detroit's Gleyber Torres at the same +920 price. Torres isn't hitting for power much, either, with four dingers, but is batting .364 this month with two homers, including one on Thursday, and is a career 7-for-18 off Bibee with two doubles. From the same game, perhaps think about Cleveland's Rhys Hoskins (not on the board yet) as he has two homers in nine at-bats off struggling Tigers starter Jack Flaherty (1-7, 5.31 ERA).
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