It's a light Thursday MLB schedule, with just six games on tap and only four night games, but there are always enough matchups for MLB betting and to decide on the best home run bets today. Home run prop betting is a huge hit with fans, but with pitchers like Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes and Atlanta's Chris Sale on the mound Thursday, there might be some unfavorable matchups. Lucky for you, SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has gone through the schedule and looked at the odds to find the best matchups for his best bets to hit a home run today.
Thompson was one of the earliest SportsLine experts from 2016-19 and rejoined the company in 2026 following a stint as the primary betting analyst for the Gambling.com Group. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, MLB and the NBA. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, he's up over 70 units in MLB and more than 60 units in the NBA at sports betting apps.
Here's a look at who Thompson is backing to go yard on Thursday. Sign up at DraftKings to follow Thompson's picks and get $100 in bonus bets instantly once you wager $5 or more:
Best home run picks for Thursday, May 28
- Pete Alonso, Orioles (+370)
- Henry Davis, Pirates (+880)
Pete Alonso, Orioles (+370, FanDuel)
Alonso hasn't hit a home run in five games, but he has five hits and three walks in that time, so he's seeing the ball just fine. Seven of his 10 home runs have been in the first four innings of games. He's had more success vs. starters because he's a strategic target for bullpen moves.
This is a good hitter vs. starter matchup for Alonso. Blue Jays LHP Patrick Corbin is having a solid season after years of being a near auto-fade over five seasons with the Nationals and Rangers. That said, Alonso should get two opportunities against him. In 52 at-bats between Alonso and Corbin, the Orioles slugger has five home runs and is hitting .365 with a robust 1.172 OPS. Alonso doesn't need to really get a hold of one to go yard.
Henry Davis, Pittsburgh Pirates (+880, FanDuel)
The Pirates catcher has certainly not matched expectations as a former No. 1 overall pick out of the 2021 MLB Draft. He was a solid hitter in college and nearly as good in the minor leagues, but it hasn't translated to success in The Show. In four seasons, he's batting .176, and this year it's a brutal .139.
He does have four home runs, and two of those were in the past four games. As for the matchup, Cubs starter Colin Rea has allowed eight home runs, the Chicago bullpen has allowed the sixth-most HRs over the past two weeks and there's a wind blowing out at 10 mph expected for the 6:40 p.m. ET start.
