There are 13 games on the MLB slate on Monday, June 29 and there are plenty of big names in action, with Phillies juggernaut Kyle Schwarber, Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani and Twins slugger Byron Buxton all taking the diamond. Are any of those names worth backing for home run prop bets on Monday, or should those interested in MLB betting target others? SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has gone through the day's slate and highlighted his top plays to go yard on Monday.
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Magliocca, also known as "Amags," is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best home run picks for Monday
- Manny Machado, Padres (+238, DraftKings)
- Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+354, DraftKings)
Manny Machado, Padres (+238)
Shota Imanaga has allowed 14 home runs in 65 innings to right handed batters this year and he possesses an unsightly 17% home run to fly ball rate. He also leans on fly balls for his outs, with nearly 50% of his batted balls from righties going up in the air. That shouldn't play well in this environment, with the hot temps and strong winds pushing out in Wrigley field tonight.
Machado has been heating up in recent weeks after he struggled for much of the season, and he's been considerably better against left handed pitching so this matchup benefits him. The only thing that has been missing for Machado against lefties is the power, with only three home runs thus far, as opposed to the 12 he's hit off righties. Last season, the Padres' third baseman nearly matched his home run totals against lefties and righties at 12 and 15, yet he had just 164 at-bats against southpaws. He continues to hit the ball in the air at a nearly identical rate as last year and the underlying metrics don't point to some massive regression, so I'm betting the power against lefties returns at some point and with a little help from the weather and ballpark, this makes for a nice spot to see that happen!
With the weather being a well known variable tonight, the prices have been moving lower on home runs in this game, so look for a boost to use if you can!
Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+354)
Righties have taken Nick Lodolo deep seven times already through just nine starts, as he's allowing a nearly 16% home run to fly ball rate. I think more than anything he got a bit lucky in that last start vs. this lineup, allowing just two hits in four innings, while striking out six and seeing no runners cross the plate. Lodolo gave up a 107 mph single to Chourio. All we need tonight is to hit the ball hard in the air now and the Cincy starter is allowing the ball to be barreled up at a high right against righties, and the Milwaukee centerfielder has been one of the best of late, with nine homers in June and four against lefties in just 55 at bats this year.
