It's the final weekend before the All-Star break, and some teams will be welcoming the respite while others will be hoping it doesn't sap their momentum. There's a full 15-game slate on tap Friday, with every one starting after 6:40 p.m. ET. One of the highlights is an intriguing interleague matchup between AL Central co-leader Cleveland and the surging Marlins. Star rookie Parker Messick will be on the mound for the Guardians on Friday against Miami ace Sandy Alcantara. Another strong pitching matchup pits Boston's Sonny Gray against Mets rookie Nolan McLean. The Marlins are -121 favorites on the money line in the consensus MLB odds, with Cleveland priced at +101.
SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has sifted through the odds on all 15 games and has found his best bets for Friday's games. An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, NBA and MLB. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf.
Over the past two seasons, Thompson is up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA. You can find more of his picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Here are Thompson's best bets and analysis for Friday's MLB games.
Best MLB picks for Friday, July 10
- Tigers ML (-123, DraftKings)
- Astros ML (-138, FanDuel)
- White Sox ML (-161, BetRivers)
Tigers ML (-123, DraftKings)
The Detroit Tigers have won eight of nine, and things are working in all facets. The pitching staff has allowed three runs or fewer in all eight of those victories, and the offense has scored six-plus runs in six of them.
Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has also regained his form, allowing just five runs over his last five starts combined. He hasn't allowed a home run since May 22.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have a good matchup against Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.18 ERA over his last seven starts, and a Phillies bullpen with a 7.04 ERA the last two weeks.
Astros ML (-138, FanDuel)
Astros starter Hunter Brown was knocked around by the Rays last time out, allowing seven runs over four innings. Before that, though, he'd given up five runs over five starts. We'll bank on a bounce-back for Brown against the Rangers, who over the last week are averaging 8.3 runs in three wins and 1.3 runs in the three losses.
Rangers RHP Cal Quantrill has a home ERA 2.5 runs higher than his road split. Since joining the starting rotation he hasn't gone over five innings, and the Texas bullpen owns a 5.40 bullpen ERA in July.
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White Sox ML (-161, BetRivers)
The Athletics have cratered, losing 10 of their last 11. They've scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The last two weeks, their team OPS is .551 vs. right-handers, and .518 on the road.
That's makes it a good spot for White Sox starter Sean Burke. In his past four starts, he's given up five total runs over 25 innings. Three of those runs came on solo homers. The A's have two home runs off right-handers over their last 99 at-bats.
The White Sox bats were non-existent in Boston, as they scored just two runs in a three-game sweep. If they can't bounce back at home against Jacob Lopez (8.07 ERA last seven starts), that's trouble.
