The Fourth of July weekend kicks off Friday night with a 13-game MLB schedule, headlined by rivalries like Mets vs. Braves and Padres vs. Dodgers. The Rays also aim to keep their streak going as they seek a ninth straight victory when they open a three-game series in Houston against the Astros. SportsLine expert Adam Thompson has taken a look at the odds for all 13 contests and is highlighting his best bets for Friday's games.
An analytics-driven exploiter of matchups, Thompson specializes in the NFL, NBA and MLB. He also has delivered consistent winners in college basketball, horse racing and golf. Over the past two seasons, Thompson is up over 70 units in MLB and over 60 units in the NBA. You can find more of his picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
Here are Thompson's best bets and analysis for Friday's MLB games.
Best MLB picks for Friday, July 3
- Giants ML vs. Rockies (-149 DraftKings)
- Red Sox ML vs. Angels (-104 FanDuel)
- Dodgers -1.5 vs. Padres (-114 FanDuel)
Giants money line (-149)
Logan Webb may have gotten off to a rocky start this season, but now he's humming. In five June starts, he went 3-1 with a 0.71 ERA. Webb allowed just one hit over seven inning vs. the Braves in his last start.
He went seven or eight innings in all five of those starts, important because the Giants' bullpen posted a 5.65 ERA for the month.
Colorado's bullpen was even worse (6.01), and Rockies starter Ryan Feltner hasn't gone more than six innings yet. San Francisco's OPS the last two weeks on the road (.840) and vs. right-handers (.827) is top-tier and roughly 100 points above Colorado's similar splits.
Red Sox money line (-104)
I'm a big fan of OPS splits over recent time periods, and this one fits the bill. When it comes to home/away and hitting off LHPs, over the past two weeks, the Red Sox have been more than 100 points better in both than the Angels.
Then you look at the pitching. Over those same two weeks, the Boston bullpen has a 2.98 ERA compared to 4.23 for Los Angeles. Boston rookie LHP Jake Bennett posted a 2.78 ERA in June. L.A. veteran Reid Detmers was having a solid stretch but has come back to Earth, allowing seven runs over his last two starts (11.2 IP).
As poorly as Boston has played at times this season, it is 12-10 as a road underdog. The Angels just got swept by the Mariners, scoring six runs in those three games. One more dud here.
Dodgers -1.5 (-114)
The Padres have lost six straight, five of them by at least two runs. Thursday vs. the Dodgers they actually led by six -- and lost 12-7. They're a team that really needs the All-Star break. But it's not coming here. Instead, they get Shohei Ohtani, who blanked the Padres over five innings earlier this season.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are back to pounding the ball, scoring nine-plus runs in three of their last four. Padres RHP Michael King pitched a gem vs. L.A. in May, but over his last seven starts is 1-5 with a 5.45 ERA..
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