MLB picks: Best bets for Brewers-Royals, Mets-Giants, Braves-Diamondbacks on Sunday, April 5

There's a full MLB slate on the schedule for Sunday, April 5, concluding with the St. Louis Cardinals facing the Detroit Tigers in the evening. The New York Yankees have raced out to a 7-1 start and they'll try to get their second sweep of the season when they take on the Miami Marlins, while the Atlanta Braves look to capture three out of four games against the Arizona Diamondbacks when those two sides face off. We'll look at the best games on Sunday's slate and make picks using recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It was a profitable 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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Best MLB bets for Sunday, April 5

Brewers money line vs. Royals

Milwaukee had the best record in baseball a year ago, but most sportsbooks largely disregarded the Brewers as true contenders when MLB futures markets opened for the 2026 season. Milwaukee has gotten off to a strong 6-2 starts and heads into Sunday's series rubber match against the Royals looking for its third series win. Kansas City will send ace Kris Bubic (1-0, 1.50 ERA) to the bump in this contest while Milwaukee goes with Kyle Harrison (1-1, 4.04 ERA last season). The Brewers are slight underdogs in the latest SportsLine consensus odds but they win in 52% of model simulations, good for a "B" grade.

Athletics +1.5 vs. Astros

The A's logged 11 runs in the first game of this series and the Astros returned the favor with 11 runs in Saturday's matchup, so maybe betting on the exact team total for either side could prove to be profitable in Sunday's rubber match. The Astros are hoping for another strong effort from Lance McCullers Jr. (1-0, 1.29 ERA) while the A's hope Jacob Lopez (0-1, 6.75 ERA) can bounce back from a disappointing 2026 debut against Atlanta. Despite the first two games of this series being blowouts, the SportsLine model likes the Athletics on the run line as they cover in 70% of simulations. That gets an "A" grade according to the model.

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Mets -1.5 vs. Giants

After losing the series opener 7-2, the Mets have exploded for 19 runs over the last two games and now look to take three of four against the Giants with Sunday's game. New York is just over .500 early in the season but the underlying metrics suggest this team can contend, as the Mets possess a +14 run differential and have played a road-heavy schedule to start. San Francisco will turn to Logan Webb (1-1, 7.36 ERA) to try to get a series split while New York will roll with Kodai Senga (0-1, 3.00 ERA). Even though the projected score for this game is Mets 4.4, Giants 4.3, the SportsLine Projection Model is backing New York on the run line. Mets -1.5 hits in 72% of simulations, getting a "B" grade.

Braves money line vs. Diamondbacks

Atlanta is looking to get three out of four games against the Diamondbacks, who have struggled to find much offense in this series. Arizona has managed just four runs over the first three games. The Braves broke out for 17 runs in the series opener but have sputtered since then with just three runs over the last two contests. Atlanta will give the ball to Martin Perez (1-6, 3.54 ERA last season) while Arizona turns to Brandon Pfaadt (13-9, 5.25 ERA last season). The Braves win on Sunday in 64% of simulations, receiving an "A" grade from the SportsLine model.

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