NFL futures odds: Buccaneers' Bain Jr., Cowboys' Downs taking early action for Defensive Rookie of the Year

I touched on some early DraftKings betting trends for 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on Tuesday, so it's only fair to do the same for Defensive Rookie of the Year, though it's usually harder to pick a top defensive rookie. The two players taking the most action thus far at the sportsbook are Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. and Dallas Cowboys safety Caleb Downs.

Most NFL Draft prognosticators expected both Bain Jr. and Downs to be top-10 picks in last Thursday's first round in Pittsburgh. Miami's Bain Jr., for example, was the No. 2 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board and Ohio State's Downs No. 8.

Downs was the first safety off the board but lasted to No. 11; the Cowboys gave up two fifth-round picks to the Miami Dolphins to move up from No. 12 to No. 11. Dallas allowed a franchise-record 511 points in 2025 and was 30th in yards allowed per game, so it was always expected the team would take a defender with its initial pick. It doesn't hurt Downs' DROY prospects that he played last season under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who oversaw some of the Patriots' Super Bowl defenses. That Patricia unit for the Buckeyes likely had a lot of NFL elements.

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Downs may be primary a nickel defender at first because with two good safeties in Jalen Thompson (a free agent addition) and Malik Hooker, Downs perhaps isn't a "must-start" out of the game for new coordinator Christian Parker's defense. Downs has taken the most tickets and second-most handle at DraftKings to win DROY and is a +750 fourth-favorite, but that number hasn't really moved from its open. The Cowboys have had one DROY in Micah Parsons, who surprisingly slipped to No. 12 in the 2021 draft.

Bain Jr., meanwhile, has taken the most money and third-most wagers at the book after sliding all the to No. 15.

"We had him very high up on the board," Bucs GM Jason Licht said. "We would have taken him a lot earlier."

He has moved from an open of +600 to a +550 second-favorite behind Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey (+450), the No. 2 overall pick by the New York Jets. One knock on Bain Jr. and why he may have slipped was owning the second-shortest arm length (30⅞ inches) among edge rushers drafted in the first round since 2003. But his 83 QB pressures last season were the most by any FBS player since 2017. Considering some of the legendary defenders in Tampa Bay's history, I'm a little surprised it hasn't had a DROY winner.

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We mentioned Bain Jr.'s odds have improved since the opening and here are some others notable guys who have seen similar:

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: +3500 to +2500

The safety from Toledo was widely expected to be a first-round pick but landed at No. 58 to Cleveland, which had the 2025 DROY in second-round linebacker Carson Schwesinger. The Browns sent some picks to the 49ers to move up from No. 70 to 58 to get McNeil-Warren.

Jacob Rodriguez: +3500 to +2500

Rodriguez, a linebacker from Texas Tech, was the No. 43 pick by the Dolphins. It always helps to get DROY votes by forcing turnovers, and Rodriguez intercepted four passes last season to go along with his FBS-leading seven forced fumbles.

T.J. Parker: +3500 to +2800

Buffalo snagged Parker, the defensive end/linebacker from Clemson, at No. 35 overall. That was the Bills' first pick of the draft after trading out of Round 1. Parker should serve as an edge rusher with the Bills and had 39 career tackles for loss with Clemson, the second most in FBS since 2023.

CJ Allen: +3000 to +2500

The Colts' first pick in the draft was at No. 53 overall and that's where they took Allen, the linebacker from Georgia. He is expected to be a Day 1 starter after Indy traded away veteran starting middle linebacker and captain Zaire Franklin to Green Bay in March. Allen could be good value at +2500. 

Colton Hood: +3500 to +3000

Almost everyone loved the New York Giants' draft haul, including Hood at No. 37 overall. He had 72 pass attempts against as the primary defender in the FBS without allowing a TD since 2023, which was second nationally.

Cashius Howell: +2800 to +2500

The Texas A&M defensive end Howell was the first pick by the Bengals in the draft at No. 41. He was teammates in College Station with Shemar Stewart, Cincinnati's first-round pick last season who massively disappointed in an injury-plagued campaign.

Dillon Thieneman: +2500 to +2200 

As a Bears fan, I was thrilled they got the Oregon safety Thieneman at No. 25 overall – the first player chosen at that position in Round 1 by the franchise since Mark Carrier in 1999. I'm hoping the do-it-all Thieneman is the next Mark Brown or Gary Fencik. He should start immediately after Chicago let safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker go this offseason. 

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