USA vs. Dominican Republic odds, picks, expert best bets for World Baseball Classic semifinal on March 15
SportsLine expert Angelo "Amags" Magliocca reveals his best bets for USA vs. Dominican Republic in Sunday's World Baseball Classic semifinal
The World Baseball Classic moves into the semifinal round on Sunday, March 15 with the United States facing Dominican Republic. The winner of this game will move on to Tuesday's final against the winner of Mexico-Venezuela, while the loser will be out of the tournament. Team USA defeated Canada 5-3 in Friday's quarterfinal while Dominican Republic blanked Korea 10-0 in the other quarterfinal. Before making any bets on Sunday's semifinal, you need to check out what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is locking in for this contest.
Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Here's a look at his best bets and analysis for USA vs. Dominican Republic on Sunday.
United States vs. Dominican Republic best bets
- Dominican Republic money line (+115): 1 unit
- Dominican Republic Over 3.5 runs (-130): 0.5 units
- Aaron Judge 1+ walk (+130): 0.5 units
The matchup everyone's been waiting for between the United States against the Dominican Republic (DR) is finally here! Two powerhouse teams, littered with elite talent, hailing from the top baseball league in the world; what could be better than this?
This will be the toughest test yet for the DR, from Paul Skenes to the loaded American bullpen and an offense of MLB studs, the USA is just as stacked as the Dominican roster. Venezuela has a great team as we saw Saturday night but the USA on paper is still the better group, so it will be very interesting to see how the DR reacts to the challenge. If Skenes can keep their potent bats off the board for the early portion of the game, he gives the USA a chance. If he gives up a couple of early runs and lets the crowd take the game over, I hate to say it but I think the USA will be sunk rather quickly.
The United States gets a significant edge over Luis Severino in the head-to-head pitching matchup with Skenes, which may give this game a different look early on as it compares to the full game score. Severino was solid in the WBC against the Netherlands and his one spring outing, but a USA lineup filled with MLB All-Stars should be intimately aware of what the MLB veteran has to offer by now. If the Americans want to win and move on to the championship game, they'll need to put some runs on Severino early, because this Dominican bullpen is no joke. Knowing the pressure is on them to score early and getting Skenes guaranteed for all three innings against the DR bats, I don't mind trying to thread the needle with a shot on the USA to lead after three innings at +130 odds.
Even with the reigning NL Cy Young winner on the mound and stud closer Mason Miller looming in the bullpen, the price for the DR to win as the home team is just too good to pass up. There isn't much that needs to be said about their offense, having scored 51 runs and slugged 14 home runs in five games, both figures that lead the tournament. The next teams for runs scored are Italy and USA tied at 40, showing just how far ahead of the pack this DR offense has been. We've cashed a couple tickets already playing the Over on the Dominican team total but those were at nine or ten runs. Now, we're getting the DR team total at just 3.5 runs and I wouldn't be surprised if they hit the Over on just a couple of swings! Even if it doesn't happen until later in the game, a home run or two could easily get us Over this total, so I'm going back to the well!
DraftKings has these batter walk props up for this game, the first time I've seen them offered in this tournament. Of course, I'm going to take a shot on the USA's best player, Aaron Judge. He's racked up six walks in 25 plate appearances so far in the WBC, one of which was an intentional walk, and Severino is well aware of the damage his former teammate can do at the plate. Whether he's pitched around, works a deep count and gets a legitimate base on balls or is intentionally walked in a big spot, I love the dart throw here on Judge to walk at least once in what is the USA's biggest game thus far. There are quite a few other options you can throw a dart on for walks on Sunday, with my favorites/most interesting prices being Geraldo Perdomo, Roman Anthony, Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Kyle Schwarber.
