2026 March Madness picks: Predictions for every first-round game in the bracket
From matchup advantages to player-level edges, Isaac Trotter's scouting-driven breakdown projects how every first-round game could unfold.
Trends flood the lead-up to the NCAA Tournament, but numbers without context rarely tell you what's actually about to happen in March. The real edges live in the matchups -- in how styles clash, where defenses crack and which players can tilt a game.
That's the approach here.
These aren't blind picks for every first-round game in the bracket. They're scouting reports -- built on data, personnel and the eye test -- to project how each matchup could unfold.
The First Four starts Tuesday. Here's a quick look at how we expect those games to shake out.
No. 16 UMBC vs. No. 16 Howard: Howard has terrific, switchable wing defenders like Bryce Harris, Ose Okojie or Alex Cotton who can give UMBC star guard DJ Armstrong a real battle. UMBC has the best player, but Howard's defense is the best unit. The pick: Howard
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 11 NC State: Texas' drop coverage is the right way to play Quadir Copeland and NC State's band of shooters. Texas wing Dailyn Swain should get what he wants against the Wolfpack, but these teams played back in November, and Texas barely won despite shooting an unsustainable 16-for-32 from downtown. The pick: NC State
No. 16 Lehigh vs. No. 16 Prairie View: One team has Nasir Whitlock. The other does not. The pick: Lehigh
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio): RedHawks star wing Eian Elmer has to play his best defensive game of the season against SMU's Jaron Pierre if Miami (Ohio) wants to advance to the field of 68. SMU probably won't have BJ Edwards, but it has unleashed stud freshman forward Jaden Toombs, who could be a game-wrecker in this one. SMU controls the paint and hangs on for dear life. The pick: SMU
OK. Now, let's get into the X's and O's and players who will shape these first-round contests. You can find my full bracket here.
EAST REGION
Duke is the second-biggest team in the sport. Its size is simply overwhelming for mid-major foes. Even without Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, Duke still trots out a seven-man rotation where the "smallest" guy is Cayden Boozer at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds. Siena has real talent. Gavin Doty can slice and dice with the best of 'em. Justice Shoats is completely unafraid and will get to his pull-up whenever. Brendan Coyle can hit seven treys in a game if you're not careful, but this one is all Duke.
The pick: Duke
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 TCU
Ohio State has a far better backcourt. Bruce Thornton and Juni Mobley are way more talented than Jayden Pierre and Brock Harding. If Ohio State's guards just get rolling, TCU is dead on arrival. But the Horned Frogs match up very well everywhere else. David Punch and Xavier Edmonds form a terrific 1-2 punch in the frontcourt. TCU is excellent on the glass, and the Frogs don't let you access anything easily.
Ohio State has been the much better team over the last 11 weeks. Since Jan. 1, Ohio State is 19th nationally. TCU sits 49th. But this Frogs' defense is absolutely legit and will force a boatload of tough shots.
The pick: TCU
No. 5 St. John's vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa
Rick Pitino demands all-out pressure defense that tries to turn you over and dominate the extras. St. John's style of play eats the Big East alive because the guard play in that league leaves a lot to be desired. The Red Storm are excellent at making teams uncomfortable and getting easy runouts. St. John's averaged 7.5 more scoring opportunities, easily No. 1 in the Big East.
But the pace is everything in this one. Northern Iowa has a veteran-laden backcourt that does not cough it up and can handle the barrage that's headed its way. UNI punts on offensive rebounding to get back in transition. That should help them in this matchup.
I can't quite pull the trigger on the upset because St. John's has too much athleticism, and UNI is a bit too reliant on shot-making from Trey Campbell. The senior guard has to have an awesome game for the Panthers to stay alive in this one, but anyone who thinks this is a good matchup for St. John's is in for a different story.
The pick: St. John's
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
Cal Baptist is heavily reliant on isolation brilliance from dynamic point guard Dom Daniels. There are pathways for Cal Baptist to stay alive by shortening the game, letting Daniels cook and holding serve on the glass. The Lancers are entirely capable of that, but Cal Baptist is just not a good enough 3-point shooting team to get over the hump here. It has made 10-plus treys just twice all season. It relies heavily on getting to the rim, where KU big man Flory Bidunga is a menace. Melvin Council will certainly make Daniels' life miserable, too.
If Darryn Peterson does Darryn Peterson things, KU will have this one in hand without too much resistance.
The pick: Kansas
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 South Florida
South Florida's personnel is really good. Joseph Pinion and Wes Enis are outstanding snipers. Big man Izaiyah Nelson is a two-way menace. South Florida has won 19 of its last 22 games, and two of the three losses came in overtime and the other was by one point. It is not far away from being 22-0. South Florida matches up really, really well with Louisville across the board. It can out-rebound the Cardinals. It can shoot with the Cardinals. It can guard these actions.
Louisville has been pretty predictable this year. When it shoots over 35% from 3-point range, it is 16-2. When it doesn't, it is 7-8. I expect freshman stud Mikel Brown Jr. to give it a go, and maybe the Cardinals go kaboom, but the lack of real optionality offensively and athleticism is jarring some nights. South Florida is more athletic than Louisville, which is something.
The pick: South Florida
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 North Dakota State
The Bison love to invert the floor, using stud big guard Trevian Carson as a post-up hub and stretch-the-floor bigs to create advantages and play off it. Michigan State can counter by just leaving Coen Carr on an island in that matchup and staying out of rotation.
Michigan State just does not lose to these types of teams. Too big, too strong. Too physical.
The pick: MSU
UCLA had a 20-game stretch, from Jan. 1 up until Tyler Bilodeau got injured, where it was the No. 3 offense in the country. Bilodeau's status for this one is still up in the air after suffering a knee strain, but Mick Cronin expects Donovan Dent to play. The three-guard lineup of Dent, Skyy Clark and Trent Perry should be able to crease this UCF defense repeatedly. If Bilodeau plays, UCLA should win. If not, this will be a dogfight because UCF goes to the glass at will. Jamichael Stillwell is impossible to keep off the boards.
The pick: UCLA
Furman freshman guard Alex Wilkins is a star, and the Paladins have a barrage of tall shooters next to a legit big man in Cooper Bowser, but UConn is a way different beast. The Huskies' offense is way too layered, and this is the first time Furman has played a high-major team this year. I thought Furman could be frisky, but not in this matchup.
The pick: UConn
SOUTH REGION
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Lehigh (projected)
No team wins the possession battle quite like Florida. The Gators are +454 this year in combined rebound margin and turnover margin. That's No. 1 in the nation, per CBB Analytics. That massive edge in shots on goal (to steal a soccer analogy) thanks to a behemoth frontline in Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Tommy Haugh makes Florida virtually upset-proof.
Get ready to learn about Lehigh firecracker guard Nasir Whitlock. He should be a shoo-in to earn a highlight tape on That Guy Rocked one day.
The pick: Florida
Clemson wants to drag this game into the mud by eliminating transition opportunities and relying on its well-coached halfcourt defense to force opponents into late-clock muckholes. Iowa is just fine with that. Hawkeyes point guard Bennett Stirtz will be the best player on the floor, and the Ben McCollum-Stirtz braintrust is a whopping 14-4 in win-or-go-home games dating back to their days at Northwest Missouri State, Drake and now Iowa.
McCollum-coached teams move without the ball exceptionally well, which is something that you have to do to beat Clemson. The schematic edges are pointing toward Iowa in this one, plus Clemson will not have big man Carter Welling (torn ACL), who transformed into the Tigers' best per-minute rebounder. Clemson has the depth to mask Welling's absence, but these guards don't have enough juice.
The pick: Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese
McNeese's Larry Johnson is the most prolific guard dunker in college basketball. The former Creighton signee has 52 rack attacks. No player 6-foot-4 or shorter can top that. Johnson joins jet-quick point guard Tyshawn Archie, plus defender Garwey Dual, veteran scorer Javohn Garcia and sniper DJ Richards to form an exceptional backcourt for a mid-major outfit.
McNeese wants to press and leans on its overwhelming athleticism to generate takeaways. The Cowboys score 21.3 points per game off turnovers. That ranks in the 100th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics.
It also won't work against Vanderbilt. The 'Dores are exceptional at taking care of the basketball. Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles are sure-handed customers, and Vanderbilt's transition offense is outstanding. Pressing the speedy Tanner is just inviting danger, and Mark Byington always has three or four trustworthy decision-makers on the floor at one time. For what it's worth, Vanderbilt handled Texas A&M's constant fullcourt pressure just fine in an 82-69 win on Feb. 14.
The pick: Vanderbilt
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy
Nebraska runs the best no-middle defense in college basketball. To beat the Huskers, Troy will have to operate in the middle of the floor, avoid the baseline traps, skip it to the opposite side and hit contested 3s -- the only type of treys that Nebraska usually cedes -- and then hammer the offensive glass.
While Troy is a good offensive-rebounding club and it has a great cutter in Thomas Dowd and a terrific jumbo playmaker in burly forward Victor Valdes, the Trojans just aren't quite consistent enough from downtown. Troy needs to drain double-digit treys to win this one, a feat it has pulled off just three times in the last 14 games.
Troy shoots just 28% on guarded catch-and-shoot 3s. That feels like the key stat against a Nebraska defense that forces a ton of contested catch-and-shoot 3s.
Troy has the bodies to defend Nebraska's big wings like Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager, but the Huskers' layered offense should be able to find enough creases against a solid, but not dominant, Troy defense.
The pick: Nebraska
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU
VCU is a deep squad with an eight-man rotation that can all shoot and be an offensive threat. That's a scary proposition for a UNC defense that is good, not great. But VCU's defense, especially in transition, is vulnerable. There will be opportunities for Seth Trimble, one of college basketball's best transition scorers, to make hay.
The whistle could be a major factor in a game that looks super competitive on paper. VCU lives at the charity stripe. UNC has been the third-best team in the country at defending without fouling. What gives?
Ultimately, I give UNC the slightest of edges because it has the two best players on the floor in Trimble and Henri Veesaar. Fully prepared to be wrong, though. VCU can really hoop, and Phil Martelli Jr. is a rising star in coaching circles.
The pick: UNC
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn
Penn forward TJ Power is a former five-star recruit who flamed out at Duke and Virginia but has found himself under Fran McCaffery, long the big-wing whisperer. Power is shooting over 44% from downtown on 173 attempts, and he's been weaponized as a cutter and slasher in a McCaffery offense that rewards activity. Illinois has loads of bodies it can throw at Power, namely Ben Humrichous, David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic or even pitbull guard Kylan Boswell, but the Illini have struggled to guard off-ball screening actions that litters Penn's tape.
But the Quakers don't have enough answers elsewhere. Penn has minimal rim protection, which is a bad idea against a gargantuan Illinois front-line that has numerous scorers. Illinois' No. 2 offense will name its score in this one against a Penn defense that has allowed 1.2 points per possession to top-100 teams this year. That ranks 356th nationally.
The pick: Illinois
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
I've been completely converted to a Buckyball Believer. There is nothing fluky about Bucky McMillan's game plan at Texas A&M, and this style of play is not quite as high-variance as I initially feared in the preseason. This matchup is especially fascinating because these two clubs can murder the other in predictable ways.
The Aggies are going to heat up Saint Mary's guards -- specifically point guard Joshua Dent, who owns a 19.9 turnover rate -- for all 40 minutes.
Saint Mary's can make up for some of the turnovers by punking Texas A&M on the offensive glass with space-eaters like Andrew McKeever (7-foot-3, 285 pounds), Harry Wessels (7-foot-1, 280 pounds) and Paulius Murauskas (6-foot-8, 235 pounds).
Playing a water tower like McKeever off the floor feels essential for the Aggies. Rashaun Agee can force the big fella to guard in space, and McMillan will undoubtedly try to tucker him out with the breakneck pace.
Saint Mary's reminds me a little bit of Tennessee, who Texas A&M lost to in triple-overtime but should have beaten. McMillan's lessons learned from that one will come to fruition in this matchup.
The pick: Texas A&M
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho
Just 28.4% of Houston's shots come at the rim. That ranks dead last in all of college basketball, but it won't hurt the Cougars in this one. Idaho's post-up heavy approach will not fly against this trapping Houston defense. No Big Sky team has won a NCAA Tournament game since 2006. That streak continues.
The pick: Houston
WEST REGION
LIU has above-average talent for a No. 16 seed, but the Sharks' starting center, Shadrak Lasu, is only 6-foot-8. That's a problem against this enormous Arizona front-line. LIU is also willing to play fast. Extra possessions equal more opportunities for Arizona to rack up a million points in the paint.
The pick: Arizona
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State
Villanova's offense is nearly 10 points per 100 possessions worse without starting 4-man Matt Hodge, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Hodge was an outstanding connector because he made open shots, didn't turn it over and got after it on the glass. The Wildcats will miss him in this one against a deep Utah State team that can throw a bunch of different defenses out there.
Villanova's guards have carried it all year. Acaden Lewis, Tyler Perkins, Devin Askew and Bryce Lindsay are all pretty reliable, but Utah State's backcourt is no slouch with MJ Collins, Drake Allen and Mountain West Player of the Year Mason Falslev.
Utah State was underseeded by the committee and looks healthier, deeper and better.
The pick: Utah State
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point
High Point scores 19.5 points per game off turnovers. That's going to be really hard to do against this Nick Boyd-John Blackwell backcourt. Wisconsin has posted a turnover rate over 20% just two times all year. Ball-control is essential in this one because it can kill two birds with one stone. It limits High Point's best strength (turning defense into offense in transition), while opening up avenues for this red-hot Badgers offense to keep rolling.
Since New Year's Day, Wisconsin is the No. 3 offense in America. It has so much shooting in the frontcourt, and both Boyd and Blackwell are impossible to keep out of the paint. The Badgers can be a bit vulnerable on the nights when the jumpers aren't dropping, but big man Nolan Winter is expected to play and his cutting and activity level is a real shot in the arm to add some counters to the drive-and-kick scheme.
High Point is really good. It's a deep team with mobile bigs like Owen Aquino, shot-making guards like Rob Martin and Scotty Washington, slashing wings like Terry Anderson and Cam'Ron Fletcher and flamethrowers like Chase Johnston.
I'd be all over them if they didn't have to play … Wisconsin. The Badgers just have a snarl about them that comes from Boyd. It's an insanely mentally tough, uber-competitive group with two guards who just refuse to lose.
The pick: Wisconsin
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii
The Big West just posted its best season in the modern era of college basketball, and Hawaii was the best team in this league. This is a well-coached, veteran team stuffed full of positional size.
This coaching chess match is outstanding. Hawaii's defense limits transition, stays home on shooters, refuses to send help and relies on its excellent point-of-attack defenders like Dre Bullock to win one-on-one matchups with 7-footer Isaac Johnson on the back line ready to swat anything away. Hawaii will have at least four guys who are 6-foot-6 or taller on the floor at all times.
Does one-on-one basketball work against Darius Acuff Jr.? You already know the answer to that question. The Arkansas star freshman has been disgustingly good this year. Bullock is big and super athletic, so he'll be up to the task, but Meleek Thomas, Billy Richmond, Trevon Brazile and Malique Ewin are all capable of going off.
Arkansas' defense -- especially at the point of attack -- is going to send the Hogs home at some point this year. It just is what it is, but Hawaii doesn't have the offensive juice to pull this off. Former BYU and Utah guard Hunter Erickson needs to have a huge day if the Rainbow Warriors want to stay alive in this one.
Hawaii hangs, Arkansas wins.
The pick: Arkansas
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 NC State (projected)
The Wolfpack's barrage of shooters against a BYU defense that can lose contain and get into rotation so quickly sounds like a nightmare. BYU coach Kevin Young may need to lean on his new lineup with Kennard Davis, Khadim Mboup, AJ Dybantsa and Keba Keita, which has been the Cougars' best bet defensively lately. NC State would have nothing for phenom AJ Dybantsa. Absolutely nothing.
The pick: BYU
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State's best player, Simeon Cottle, was kicked off the team after the FBI's gambling investigation, but the Owls have stayed in the fight. Credit to Antoine Pettway's group for hanging in there, and big-bodied guard RJ Johnson has taken Cottle's spot as the featured star. Gonzaga could just own the paint in this one. Graham Ike devours mid-major frontcourts, and the Zags' will crave a transition-heavy game. That's what Kennesaw State's style of play invites.
The pick: Gonzaga
No. 7 Miami vs. No. 10 Missouri
Miami won't be able to big-boy Missouri. Mizzou star Mark Mitchell is an ideal matchup for Miami big man Malik Reneau. Shawn Phillips and Ernest Udeh feel like a wash in the paint. Missouri will swarm the paint and live with open jumpers. Miami has been a poor 3-point shooting team all year. Jai Lucas needs one of his role players like Noam Dovrat or steady freshman Dante Allen to make Missouri's defense pay for its sins.
Mizzou in a grimy one.
The pick: Missouri
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Queens
Queens' guard play is for real. Chris Ashby is a professional net-shredder, and Jordan Watford is one of the top mid-major freshmen, but this Queens interior defense will have zero answers for Purdue.
The pick: Purdue
MIDWEST REGION
No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 16 Howard (projected)
Opponents have a 44.8% effective field goal percentage against Michigan in the second half. That's No. 4 nationally and No. 1 among all high-majors. The Wolverines won't need an elite second-half showing from its defense to dust Howard.
The pick: Michigan
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Saint Louis
This will be a wild game of runs because Georgia and Saint Louis are two of the top-eight transition offenses in college basketball. The decision-making will be essential in this one because every bad shot or live-ball turnover will very likely result in a fastbreak opportunity. The center spot is a hilarious and crucial matchup. UGA big man Somto Cyril is a man amongst boys. He patrols the paint and sends shots to the rafters. He's smashed 79 dunks this year. SLU counters with Robbie Avila, who can pass, dribble and shoot but can't jump over a piece of paper. He has zero dunks.
They're both phenomenal in opposite ways.
SLU's collection of two-way wings feels like the difference. They should be able to find enough answers defensively to slow down top Blue Cain and Jeremiah Wilkinson.
The pick: SLU
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron
Akron is going to try to beat Texas Tech at its own game. The Zips take and make a ton of 3s. Akron's three senior guards -- Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Bowen Hardman -- are all shooting over 37% from 3-point range and have hit 70-plus treys. This is the third straight year John Groce's club has made the NCAA Tournament, so it's a battle-tested unit that is ready for the bright lights. Up front, Akron has real players. Senior Evan Mahaffey started his tenure at Ohio State and can handle the LeJuan Watts assignment. His little brother, freshman forward Eric Mahaffey, is one of the best freshmen in mid-major basketball, and big man Amani Lyles can stretch the floor. Texas Tech is a rough draw, largely because Grant McCasland is a shrewd in-game mastermind and the Red Raiders have the best player on the floor in Christian Anderson, but Akron is going to put up a fight.
Without Toppin, Texas Tech has turned into a heavy jump-shooting team. It doesn't have that same interior sledgehammer to eviscerate Akron's vulnerable interior defense. If this turns into a jump-shooting contest, Akron can unequivocally hang around. I just have infinite trust in McCasland's ability to scheme things up.
The pick: Texas Tech
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Hofstra
This game just got even more interesting because Aden Holloway, Alabama's second-leading scorer, is not expected to play after getting arrested for a felony drug charge. Hofstra has two excellent vroom-vroom guards in veteran Cruz Davis and freshman Preston Edmead, but the Pride rely heavily on perimeter shot-creation and shot-making. It doesn't have the beasts inside to hunt Alabama's biggest weaknesses in the paint.
Alabama's offense is 10 points per 100 possessions worse without Holloway, but Nate Oats has enough depth here to make it work in a pinch. Labaron Philon is the best player on the floor, and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Houston Mallette are so reliable. I'd expect Alabama to play even bigger with Amari Allen at the 3 and Taylor Bol Bowen or London Jemison at the 4. That should help shrink the floor against these magnificent Hofstra guards.
The pick: Alabama
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 SMU (projected)
The Mustangs just haven't been up to snuff against elite competition this year. Tennessee and SMU are on a similar wavelength from a talent perspective, but the Vols have more pathways to creating advantages. Ja'Kobi Gillespie would be the best player on the floor, and Nate Ament wouldn't be far behind. Tennessee's bigs are also more reliable at this point. This feels like a matchup where SMU's guards are forced to jack up a ton of hotly contested shots.
The pick: Tennessee
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Wright State
Great guards can get it cooking against this Virginia backcourt. Wright State has a good one in freshman Michael Cooper, and fellow freshman Kellen Pickett is a tank in the paint. Wright State can hang in this one for a while, but Virginia's size, skill and shooting are too overwhelming. Wright State just feels like a year away from being super-duper dangerous. Six of Clint Sargent's top-eight players are freshmen or sophomores.
The pick: Virginia
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No.10 Santa Clara
Santa Clara has a nine-man rotation that can really play. Freshman Allen Graves, sophomore guard Christian Hammond and senior wing Elijah Mahi are all really talented, but Santa Clara's transition defense is a real hot spot. That is where Kentucky is at its absolute best. I just like how Kentucky matches up across the board. Denzel Aberdeen can defend Santa Clara's point guards. Otega Oweh or Kam Williams can handle Mahi. Collin Chandler should be able to stick with Hammond. Mo Dioubate won't be fazed by Graves' inside-and-out game. Malachi Moreno is far more physical than Santa Clara big man Bukky Oboye.
Herb Sendek bested Mark Pope three out of four times when they squared off at Santa Clara and BYU, respectively. But that trend doesn't matter in this one. Cats win by four.
The pick: Kentucky
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Tennessee State
Tennessee State just doesn't have the interior oomph to handle Joshua Jefferson as a passer or brute-force scorer. Teams with four or five shooters give Iowa State's trapping defense the most issues. Tennessee State only has two shooters (Travis Harper and Aaron Nkrumah) that defenses are concerned about.
The pick: Iowa State
Fill out your brackets, play for a dream trip
