Alabama's thrilling 41-34 win over Georgia on Saturday has knocked the Bulldogs out of the No. 1 seed in this week's College Football Playoff projections. Texas, the current No. 1 in the AP Top 25, is now the projected SEC champion in its first season as a league member. As such, the Longhorns have replaced Georgia as the No. 1 seed in the CFP field.
It will be an uphill climb for the Bulldogs to get back into the SEC race as the Dawgs will likely have to run the table in conference play to get a berth in the SEC Championship Game. That means wins at home over No. 5 Tennessee, at No. 1 Texas and No. 6 Ole Miss, which lost at home to Kentucky on Saturday.
The Longhorns began SEC play on Saturday with a 35-13 win over Mississippi State. A home game with Georgia on Oct. 19 is their only matchup against one of the other likely contenders.
Missouri also has only one game against one of the other likely SEC contenders -- Oct. 26 at Alabama. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide still have road trips to Tennessee and LSU sandwiched around that game with Mizzou.
The Volunteers could forge a path to the SEC title game with a win over the Crimson Tide at home or at Georgia. The SEC race for the conference championship and the bye in the CFP is just starting to heat up.
There are no newcomers in this week's CFP projections, just a shuffling of teams in and around Georgia and Alabama.
College Football Playoff
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl | (1) Texas vs. (8/9) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | (2) Ohio State vs. (7/10) Winner |
Jan. 1 | Peach Bowl | (4) Utah vs. (5/12) Winner |
Dec. 31 | Fiesta Bowl | (3) Miami vs. (6/11) Winner |
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
Dec. 20 or 21 | Bryant-Denny Stadium | (5) Alabama vs. (12) Boise State | (4) Miami |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Jack Trice Stadium | (8) Iowa State vs. (9) Penn State | (1) Texas |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Autzen Stadium | (6) Oregon vs. (11) Clemson | (3) Utah |
Dec. 20 or 21 | Sanford Stadium | (7) Georgia vs. (10) Michigan | (2) Ohio State |
Big 12 favorite Utah lost 23-10 at home Saturday to Arizona but is still projected to win the conference title and remain in the top four of the CFP. The Utes did drop to the No. 4 seed, though. They need to get QB Cam Rising back soon, or their CFP hopes will quickly disappear. Fortunately, the Utahs are off next week and their next game against a team currently ranked in the AP Top 25 is against Iowa State on Nov. 23; however, rival BYU may be ranked by the time Utah plays the Cougars two weeks before that.
Miami moved up to No. 3 despite surviving a scare from Virginia Tech. It appeared that the Hokies beat the Hurricanes on a Hail Mary, but replay overturned the call because it was ruled that a Miami defender touched the ball while out of bounds. Next up for the Canes is a two-game road trip -- first at Cal and then a trip to No. 19 Louisville.
Ohio State remains in the No. 2 spot after throttling Michigan State on the road. The Buckeyes should get their first real test of the season when Iowa visits next week, and A road trip to Oregon is on tap the following week.
I am now up to seven teams in this week's bowl projections with 5-7 records. That seems unlikely to hold up over time, but if it did, it would match the total number of teams to play in bowls with 5-7 records, excluding COVID-impacted games.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's complete bowl projections.
