College football odds, picks, predictions for Week 4, 2024: Proven model backs Florida State in best bets

SportsLine's advanced computer model has revealed its 2024 Week 4 college football picks

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 16, 2024 at 7:34 am ET • 4 min read

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No. 15 Oklahoma will play its first conference game as a member of the SEC when it hosts No. 6 Tennessee in one of the biggest games on the Week 4 college football schedule. The Sooners were 4.5-point favorites in the look-ahead Week 4 college football spreads, but they are now 7.5-point home underdogs in the Week 4 college football odds. Tennessee has scored more than 50 points in each of its first three games, including a modern era school-record 71 points in a shutout win over Kent State last week. The Vols have covered the spread in all three of their games, so should you back them with your Week 4 college football bets?

Other ranked vs. ranked matchups this week include No. 22 Nebraska (-9) vs. No. 24 Illinois on Friday night and No. 18 Michigan (+5.5) vs. No. 11 USC in a 3:30 p.m. ET Big Ten on CBS showdown. The Trojans opened the season with a neutral-site win over then-No. 13 LSU before adding a 48-0 win over Utah State, and they are rested following their bye week. Before locking in any Week 4 college football picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is also coming off a profitable 13-9 season on top-rated spread picks and is off to a 4-0 start on over/under picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns!

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds and Week 4 college football betting lines on the spread, money line and over/under. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for Week 4

One of the college football picks the model is high on during Week 4: UCLA (+22.5) stays well within the spread at LSU in a 3:30 p.m. ET matchup on Saturday. The Bruins had their Big Ten debut spoiled by Indiana last week, as they were blown out in a 42-13 final as 4-point underdogs. They were outscored 21-0 in the first 25 minutes of the game and allowed Indiana to finish with more than 400 total yards.

However, this is a letdown spot for LSU following a hard-fought win at South Carolina last week, as the Tigers needed a late touchdown to escape with a win in front of a rowdy crowd. They were unable to cover the spread as 6.5-point road favorites, which puts them at 0-3 against the spread to open the season. LSU has now failed to cover in five consecutive September games, and the model has UCLA covering in well over 60% of the latest simulations. See the rest of its Week 4 college football picks here.

Another prediction: Florida State (-2.5) finally wins and covers the spread against California in a 7 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday. No team has been a bigger disappointment so far this season than Florida State, which has lost all three of its games despite being favored by six-plus points in all of those games. This line has been dropping since Florida State opened at -5.5 on Sunday morning, but the model believes there is value backing the Seminoles in a contrarian spot.

Cal is making a cross-country trip for its ACC opener, and the Golden Bears were 12-point underdogs when they went to unranked Auburn earlier this month. They were able to pull off an upset in that game, but there is still a talent disparity between these rosters. Florida State is 9-2 in its last 11 home games, while Cal is just 5-15 in its last 20 road games, so the model has the Seminoles covering well over 60% of the time. See picks for every other game in Week 4 here.

How to make college football picks for Week 4

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every FBS matchup in Week 4, and it's calling for multiple underdogs to win outright. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and which underdogs win outright in Week 4? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $2,000 in profit since its inception, and find out.