As we approach the selection of teams for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff field, there is no small amount of concern over the possibility of a team picking up a third loss on the season in a conference championship game and getting left our of the party as a result. Fans of No. 8 SMU, No. 10 Boise State and even No. 5 Georgia are worried about losing and missing out on history.
During one of his recent weekly press conferences, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin spoke about his thoughts on playing for a title at 10-2. Kiffin admitted he's rather sit it out.
"The conference championship could have a big impact both ways for people. So I've talked to other coaches, so I'll just kind of give you the feeling from some other coaches and that's they don't want to be in it," Kiffin said. "The reward to get a bye versus the risk to get knocked out completely, I mean, that's a really big risk just to get a bye."
While it turned out not to be a concern for the Rebels, that got me thinking: How much of a risk is there?
CFP Selection Committee chairman Warde Manuel said this week that the committee views conference championship games as a "reward." That may be true, but only to a point. My observation is that over the years, the selection committee has been pretty forgiving of teams that lose their conference championship game to a higher-ranked team. That is an important distinction because upsets turn things upside down.
In the CFP era, which began with the 2014, every conference championship game between two ranked teams in which the lower-ranked team has won resulted in the lower-ranked team jumping its opponent in the final CFP Rankings. When you have one team jumping another, they could land anywhere among the teams in and around them -- meaning those teams that did not play could see their ranking change, for better or worse, as a result. So, there is also a risk to not playing in the title game.
Teams that lost their conference title games to higher-ranked teams rarely moved more than one spot down as a result. Those that did almost universally got blown out in their game. Some others were also victimized by the movement of teams around them.
For example, in 2023, Oregon lost a thrilling Pac-12 title game to Washington, but the Ducks dropped from fifth to eighth in the final rankings. One of the teams Oregon dropped behind was Ohio State, which was idle. The other two were No. 8 Alabama, which jumped over the Ducks thanks to the Tide's win over then-No. 1 Georgia, and seventh-ranked Texas, which pounded Oklahoma State 49-21.
When the 12-team playoff was originally announced, the format was to include the top six conference champions and six at-large teams. But when the Pac-12 cratered amid a mass exodus, it was changed to a 5+7 model. Using the originally proposed 12-team format and beginning with the first year of the CFP, only one team would have dropped out of the playoff as a result of losing a competitive championship game to a higher-ranked team. That would have been in the first year of the CFP in 2014 when No. 11 Georgia Tech lost to fourth-ranked Florida State 37-35. The Yellow Jackets dropped one spot to 12th, but that would have made them the first team out of a 12-team playoff.
In 2014, the selection committee did not have a cutline that far down the rankings to think about. Perhaps this committee will be cognizant of the new line and not necessarily give teams a break to stay above it, but give some extra thought to which of the teams among those being considered is most deserving of that last spot in the field. The committee certainly gave a lot of thought last season to which team should be on the good side of the cutline, and that resulted in the demotion of undefeated ACC champion Florida State.
How might the committee judge this weekend?
So, how can that impact things this season? Georgia is high enough in the rankings to be in the field win or lose. Even if the Bulldogs get boat-raced by a team they previously beat on the road, the Bulldogs are likely to stay ahead of Alabama.
SMU and Boise State may not be so lucky, however, as both are in action against lower-ranked teams.
If the Broncos lose at home to UNLV, a team they also previously beat on the road, they will definitely drop out of the CFP bracket if not behind the Rebels. UNLV would move up high enough to be in play for a bye, but my guess is that the fourth bye would go to the Big 12 champion in that scenario. Both teams would finish in the teens of the rankings.
What if SMU loses to No. 17 Clemson? Even with the Tigers improving to 10-3, you have to figure that would probably not jump the 11-2 Mustangs, but it cannot be ruled out. The ceiling for SMU's fall down the rankings is right above No. 12 Miami. There is no head-to-head result, but SMU would have better losses and neither team would have a win over a ranked opponent. Staying ahead of Alabama seems unlikely because with a loss to Clemson, SMU's resume looks much more like Miami's than it does that of the Crimson Tide. We already know how the committee feels about that comparison, so this is likely an elimination game for SMU as well.
A loss by SMU would definitely put the Big 12 champion in a position to earn a bye. There is no reason to believe that Clemson would pass the winner of that conference.
