Miami vs. Indiana score prediction: Keys for Hurricanes, Hoosiers in CFP National Championship Game

The final game of the 2025 college football season is nearly upon us, and it is a national championship game matchup few, if any, foresaw between No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami. The Hoosiers and Hurricanes will meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, next Monday night in the College Football Playoff finale, and among the many fascinating storylines is just how much Miami will benefit from a rare title game with home field advantage.

Miami fans figure to be out in force for their first title game appearance since 2003 and have the benefit of not needing to travel, but they will face some stiff competition for tickets. Indiana fans have already taken over the Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl to make those de facto home games for the Hoosiers, and they'll try to muscle this into at least a true neutral-site title game -- if not another sea of red in the stands -- in the Hurricanes home stadium. 

On the field, the Hoosiers are 8.5-point favorites according to FanDuel after absolutely dominating Alabama and Oregon in their first two playoff games, with a combined score of 94-25. Another performance like that would put this Indiana team in the conversation with the all-time greatest college football teams, but they'll face a unique test in a Miami squad peaking at the right time. 

The 'Canes have quite the mountain to climb against this Indiana side that shows very little in the way of weakness, but Miami's gotten to this point through brute force and have already dispatched last year's champs in the quarterfinals against Ohio State. 

Here, we'll look at three keys for each team as they look to finish off a championship campaign, and offer up our score prediction for next week's title showdown. 

Keys for Miami

Commit to the run: If Miami is going to win, it must be able to run the ball in a way neither Alabama nor Oregon could. Alabama was a disaster on the ground all season and that became a serious problem against the Hoosiers, who teed off on Ty Simpson (and later Austin Mack). Oregon was without a number of its top running backs, and compounded those issues by falling behind on literally the first play of the game when Dante Moore threw a pick six, which put them in chase mode from the jump. 

Miami's offense has been a bit stop-start in the playoff, and for as great and dynamic as Malachi Toney is, the most consistent element of their offense all postseason has been Mark Fletcher Jr. and the offensive line. Fletcher has rushed for 395 yards in the Hurricanes' three playoff games, hitting at least 90 yards in each, and even against a vaunted Ohio State defensive front the 'Canes offensive line was able to create push up front. 

That has to continue against Indiana for a number of reasons. First, is that the Miami offense is at its best when they're running effectively and draw more eyes into the box, creating some advantages outside for Toney, Keelan Marion and others. It also will take some stress off Carson Beck and prevents Indiana from teeing off with their pass rush, which overwhelmed Oregon and Alabama already. Running the ball effectively and consistently will also keep the Miami defense fresher, which will be vital to accomplishing their second key to the game. 

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Chip Patterson

Dominate the line of scrimmage on defense: Miami's defensive front has been the biggest reason they find themselves in the national title game. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have wrecked opposing offensive lines and their ability to get home has forced teams to try and account for that by leaning on the quick game -- which then allows Miami's secondary to get aggressive. 

Indiana's offensive line has been terrific all postseason, allowing just 11 pressures in two games -- three against Alabama, eight against Oregon. It didn't take long for Bain and Mesidor to make their presence felt against Ohio State, and they'll be looking to make a quick introduction to Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

However, the way you get to Mendoza starts with slowing down Indiana's rushing attack. The Hoosiers have run the ball 90 times in their two playoff games compared to just 36 pass attempts -- and that becomes 124 rushes vs. 59 passes if you include the Big Ten title game against Ohio State. Mendoza may be the Heisman winner, but this Indiana offense is built on the running game and then attacking downfield off of that. 

Miami has to keep Indiana from staying on schedule with their rushing attack, because they are incredibly dangerous when they get into third-and-short. Indiana loves taking shots in the passing game in those situations, and they're so hard to stop because they will almost always get 1-on-1s outside in short yardage and they have elite 1-on-1 pass catchers in Elijah Sarratt, Charlie Becker and Omar Cooper Jr. 

When Indiana averages 4+ yards per carry, the Hoosiers' average margin of victory is 42.8 points per game (10 games). When they average less than 4 yards per carry, their average margin of victory is just nine points (5 games). We don't know entirely what the formula for beating Indiana is because no one's done it, but those numbers point to stopping the run as an extremely important step. 

Self-scout and break tendencies in the passing game: Indiana's defensive discipline and preparation is legendary at this point. Their ability to snuff out a team's preferred game plan and how well they've played so far this postseason has led to the inevitable conspiracy theories, because they simply don't make mistakes. 

I don't subscribe to those theories, but what I do know is that you cannot come in with a script you've shown before in the passing game. Indiana was ready for Oregon to try to get Dante Moore into an early rhythm in the semis, and had their defensive backs squatting on the first play, with D'Angelo Ponds keying Moore's eyes and jumping an out route for a game-opening pick six. 

Miami has three games of playoff tape for Indiana to scour and find tendencies, and if the Hurricanes' staff isn't putting in the same work in their self-scout, they're going to open themselves up to problems. They've been a bit timid in taking a deep shot and have looked to get Toney the ball in the quick game, which Indiana will be keying on early. Perhaps a big play can be had early if the 'Canes can break their tendency and let Beck rip it down the field on a double move, hoping to catch the Hoosiers trying to create another early turnover. 

It won't just be important to show some new stuff early, but Miami's going to have to show some playbook depth all game. They need to have some fresh action out of looks they've shown and try to turn Indiana's aggression and scouting into something they can exploit by recognizing trends in their own game to catch the Hoosiers off guard. 

Keys for Indiana

Tackling in space: There might not be a better team in the country at tackling in space than Indiana. They are so fundamentally sound on defense and they seemingly never take a bad angle or whiff when it's 1-on-1 on the perimeter. That is going to be critical against this Miami team that loves to get the ball out quickly, especially to Malachi Toney, and let him make defenders miss to create explosive plays. 

We saw that against Ole Miss, when Toney wriggled free of multiple defenders on a late touchdown on a screen. We saw it against Texas A&M when he scored the game-winning touchdown on a jet sweep/pop-pass action. The challenge in defending a team like Miami and a player like Toney is that you can do everything right for most of the game, but the one time you lose your discipline in pursuit, it will likely cost you six points. 

Indiana is terrifyingly good at executing over and over and not having the lapses that allow those kinds of plays. That'll have to continue against Miami, because they're going to ask that question over and over, especially getting the ball to Toney on the edge. 

Don't get timid now: The Hoosiers have steamrolled their first two playoff opponents, and a large part of their offensive success has been Mendoza attacking down the field in key moments. Against both Alabama and Oregon, Indiana has hit big pass plays and touchdowns on third downs, with Mendoza attacking 1-on-1 coverages and trusting his talented receivers to make plays. 

Miami's defensive front is going to apply some pressure to Mendoza, but he can't let that threat take him out of what's made Indiana's offense so good the last two games. Miami's defensive backs will be aggressive because their pass rush is so good. They will press up and look to jump underneath routes, because so many teams try to get the ball out quickly. Indiana's offensive line is good enough to give Mendoza some time and allow them to try and get over the top. 

Because of the aggressive way Miami plays on the outside, if they can get the protection right at the right time those big plays should be available. Mendoza can't be worried about the stage and get timid when those 1-on-1 opportunities present themselves. To be clear, nothing's shown he will, but the national championship spotlight is just a bit different and if he (and the Indiana coaching staff) gets worried about making mistakes and not using his talented receivers to try and stretch the field, it'll play into Miami's hands. 

Heat up Carson Beck: Beck has answered a lot of questions the last two games and he comes into the title game riding a wave of confidence. The Miami O-line is among the nation's best and when he has time, Beck has been very accurate delivering the football -- especially in the short and intermediate passing game. 

Indiana's been fantastic all year at applying pressure -- and especially doing so from the middle of the pocket. If you can move Beck off his spot and not allow him to step into his throws, the ball can sail and there are opportunities to turn the Hurricanes over. However, doing that is easier said than done. 

The biggest shock in the Ohio State game was the Buckeyes' inability to consistently get pressure on Beck. Ohio State's loaded front couldn't break through the Hurricanes' offensive line, and while Miami's offense didn't go crazy scoring in that game, Beck was able to lead them on a number of time-consuming drives that kept the Buckeyes off the field. 

That's going to be the formula for the 'Canes in this one, and Indiana has to get into the Miami backfield if they're going to disrupt that plan. It took them about a quarter of play to figure out how to break down the Oregon offensive line, but once they did, they put Dante Moore under siege. That will be the plan again against Miami, and it's how the Hoosiers can speed up Beck's timing and get the Hurricanes out of rhythm. 

Score prediction

I think Miami runs the ball better than Indiana's first two opponents, is able to hold up at the line of scrimmage on defense and will make it difficult for the Hoosiers to create explosive plays offensively with their pass rush. All of that being said, I still think this Indiana team wins because they're simply the best, most complete team in college football. I just feel there are so many more ways for Indiana to win this game than Miami, and while I expect a very strong effort from the 'Canes, I just think Indiana's ability to execute on both sides for 60 minutes will win out in a defensive battle. PICK: Indiana 23-17 over Miami