If modern trends are any indication, the 2024 coaching carousel will get spinning in earnest sometime soon. November tends to be a key month when it comes to schools making a final decision on embattled coaches -- whether that be a renewed vote of confidence or a move in another direction.
Sometimes, it's easy to tell entering a season which coaches might be close to the chopping block. It can be hard to quantify, but recent results, contract situations and the general vibes around a program tend to be solid indicators of where things stand.
CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd, in recent years, has taken to applying a numerical value to coaches on the hot seat. It's a typically accurate measure of a coach's immediate outlook.
Every year, at least a handful of coaches exceed expectations and work their way off of the hot seat. Turns out the 2024 season has seen a fair share of embattled bosses completely reverse their fortunes.
For those that need a reminder of how Dodd's hot seat rankings work:
| Rating | What it means |
|---|---|
5 | Win or be fired |
4 | Start improving now |
3 | Pressure is mounting |
2 | All good ... for now |
1 | Safe and secure |
0 | Untouchable |
For this article's purposes, only coaches with a rating of at least "3" were considered, since that would have put them a bad season away from potentially being ousted. With all of that in mind, here's a look at the coaches that have worked their way off of the hot seat during the 2024 season.
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Dave Aranda, Baylor
Hot seat rating: 4
2024 record: 5-4
Aranda isn't entirely out of the woods yet, but things are trending in the right direction. His Bears are one win away from returning to a bowl game for the first time since 2022 and the third time during his five-year tenure. They close the year with a very manageable schedule. A road game against West Virginia is tough, but then Houston and Kansas -- which boast a combined record of 6-11-- provide a prime opportunity for Baylor to get to seven wins and secure its first winning season in three years. Aranda's 12-2 effort in 2021 seems like its' from an alternate timeline at this point. Getting to at least seven wins would provide solid evidence for a program in recovery, though. He at least gave Baylor its first home win against top rival TCU since 2014. That's good for something.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Hot seat rating: 3
2024 record: 5-3
South Carolina took a nosedive under Beamer in 2023, finishing 5-7 while missing out on a bowl for the first time during his tenure. That was particularly disappointing given that the Gamecocks seemed to have plenty of momentum after closing the 2022 regular season with consecutive wins against top-10 foes Tennessee and Clemson. It turns out last year may have been a bug, not a feature. Beamer's squad has roared right back into postseason contention with a strong showing two-thirds of the way through the 2024 season. Those five wins include a 24-point triumph against then-No. 10 Texas A&M, giving Beamer his third win against a top-10 opponent -- the second-most in program history. The Gamecocks have a trio of tough games to close the year against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Clemson, but they've shown they can hang against some of the nation's top teams.
Mario Cristobal, Miami
Hot seat rating: 3
2024 record: 9-0
Cristobal has emphatically slammed the door on any questions about his future. There was definite reason for concern following a lackluster 12-13 record over his first two years, including consecutive 3-5 conference showings and some disaster-class coaching jobs (think the 2023 Georgia Tech blunder). Now the Hurricanes are a runaway favorite to win the ACC and storm into the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history. Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward has been a revelation. He makes the spectacular look routine and, as such, is in a small group of players well out front in the Heisman Trophy race (he's the betting favorite at +210 on DrafKings sportsbook). Ward leads the FBS with 29 touchdown passes and his 3,146 yards through the air are second nationally. Miami has had some very close scrapes against the likes of Virginia Tech and California but -- unlike Cristobal teams of the past -- it keeps finding ways to win. It doesn't look like that will change anytime soon.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
Hot seat rating: 4
2024 record: 6-3
Vanderbilt's faith in Lea is paying off in spades. The Commodores looked like they were headed for another reset entering the 2024 season, but it appears as if Lea -- who showed flashes while leading Vanderbilt to a 5-7 record in 2022 -- has finally put things together. With Week 10's win against Auburn, the Commodres secured bowl eligibility for the first time in six years. It's also the earliest that Vanderbilt has reached six wins since 1982. Besides a baffling loss to a bad Georgia State team early in the season, Lea has vastly exceeded any reasonable preseason expectations. Vanderilt's other two defeats came by a combined six points against a pair of top-10 teams (at the time of the game) in Missouri and Texas. The Commodores did get one over on then-No. 1 Alabama, beating the Crimson Tide for the first time in 40 years. This is also the first time since 1955 that Vanderbilt has won against Alabama and Auburn in the same season. The Commodores face three-straight ranked teams over the last month, but Lea has already done more than enough to earn fan investment and trust around Nashville.
Billy Napier, Florida
Hot seat rating: 4
2024 record: 4-4
Has Napier actually done enough to save his job? It's a legitimate question, but apparently Florida's administration has seen enough to at least reaffirm its confidence in his tenure. While Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin didn't provide a specific timeline for exactly how long Napier will remain in charge, it seems like he'll get to stick around through at least a bit of the 2025 season. Florida's players still seem bought in, and the Gators have improved with each passing week -- even if the record might not reflect progress. They took No. 7 Tennessee to overtime, beat Kentucky by 28 points and played Georgia close before things spiraled out of control late in the fourth quarter. This despite the fact that Florida lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz for the season against the Vols and his replacement, freshman phenom DJ Lagway, suffered his own injury early against the Bulldogs. A bowl game seems like a long shot at this point -- Florida has to play No. 5 Texas, No. 14 LSU and No. 16 Ole Miss in its next three games -- which means that the Gators would miss out on the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 40 years.
Kalani Sitake, BYU
Hot seat rating: 4
2024 record: 8-0
A BYU team without Sitake seems hard to conceptualize, but that was a near-reality after BYU's disastrous transition to the Big 12. After 21 wins from 2020-21, the Cougars took a step back with an 8-5 showing in 2022 and then hit rock bottom by going 5-7 in 2023. That included a 2-7 Big 12 record as they finished third among the Big 12's new quartet of schools and tied for 11th overall. Picked 13th out of 16 teams in the preseason Big 12 media poll, BYU wasn't expected to take a significant step forward entering in 2024. Fast forward and the Cougars are the only undefeated team left in the conference thanks to a strong defense and consistent quarterback play from Jake Retzlaff. The Cougars rank sixth in the conference in total defense (331.5 yards per game) and third in scoring defense (19.6 points per game). They control their own destiny both on the path to the conference championship game and, beyond that, a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
