Can you believe it's the final Pick Six of the year? It's the same story every season. You wait and wait, and wait some more for the college football season to get here, and then it's gone in the blink of an eye. Luckily, while the season may have gone by too quickly, it was still a good one for Pick Six.
We enter the final Pick Six of the season with a record of 57-38-1, meaning you'd be up 13.813 units had you bet every game I told you to at the standard juice. Not bad, but there's still time to make it better, and we're doing it in style.
This week's Pick Six will be a New Year's Six edition. I mean, it only makes sense, right? It's like they were made for each other. We'll start with the two biggest games first, and then move on to the non-College Football Playoff games.
Now let's get this money.
College Football Playoff Bowls
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama (-3) vs. No. 1 Clemson -- Jan. 1: I don't want anybody to overthink this. When there was a debate over which team would get the final playoff spot, the question was "does a conference champion deserve it over an Alabama team that didn't win its division?" It was never about whether or not either Ohio State or USC is better than Alabama. They aren't. Nobody is.
While there hasn't been a truly elite team in 2017, Alabama was the best team in college football all season long, and the loss to Auburn doesn't change that. Clemson is a terrific team as well, but outside of its defensive line and its receivers, I'm not sure where you can consider Clemson to be better than Alabama, and the margins there aren't significant. Plus, I think we overlook just how amazing Deshaun Watson was in the first two meetings between these teams. He did so much to keep Clemson in both games, and without him, I'm not sure the results are all that close. Well, Clemson is without him this year, and while Kelly Bryant has done an admirable job of steering the ship, I can't rely on him to make the same plays Watson did. Alabama 31, Clemson 24
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia (Under 60) -- Jan. 1: I've gone back and forth on which team wins this game ever since the matchup was announced. Can the Oklahoma defense withstand the battering rams known as Sony Michel and Nick Chubb? Can the Georgia defense keep Baker Mayfield from doing the things Baker Mayfield does? I don't know! I can't wait to find out, but I'm not confident in either side.
What I do believe, however, is that this will be a lower-scoring game than many believe. Think about it. If you're Georgia, what's the best way to minimize Baker Mayfield? By keeping him off the field, and wouldn't you know it, Georgia's offensive philosophy can help it do just that. Of course, I don't think Oklahoma needs to score 40 points to beat Georgia, either. I don't know who ends up on top, but I'm confident they won't score too many points while getting there. Oklahoma 30, Georgia 27
New Year's Six Bowls
Cotton Bowl: No. 8 USC (+7.5) vs. No. 5 Ohio State -- Dec. 29: There's a part of me that worries that juicy hook on the seven is bait to lure me in and that I'll be catching a mallet over the top of my head any second now. Still, I'm taking it. I just think the number is too big, and had it been at 6.5 rather than 7.5, I'm probably taking Ohio State. But that hook, man. That hook ...
Yeah, Ohio State is good, but it's not that much better than USC. After all, this is still the same Buckeyes team that lost by 31 to Iowa and didn't exactly look magnificent against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. On the other side of the field, we have a USC team that has played better in November than it was earlier in the season. It's finishing strong, and I expect it to finish with a cover in the Cotton Bowl. The touch, the feel, of cotton, the cover of our lives. Ohio State 38, USC 31
Fiesta Bowl: Washington (+2) vs. No. 9 Penn State -- Dec. 30: It didn't take me all that long to figure out I was taking Washington here. The reason for this is that I think the wrong team is favored. Don't get me wrong, they're both good teams, and they're similar in a lot of ways, but I believe Washington is slightly better.
Also, it's important to remember that Penn State won't have Joe Moorhead calling plays in this game. He's left to take over at Mississippi State, and I remember how uninspiring -- if we're being kind -- the Penn State offense was a few years ago before Moorhead showed up. I don't expect it to regress that badly or anything, but Moorhead's absence will be felt. Washington 27, Penn State 24
Orange Bowl: No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Wisconsin (Over 45) -- Dec. 30: If I can get literary for a moment here, the under in this game are the sirens calling passing sailors to their death, and the public is throwing itself into the rocks a bit too easily. Well, call me Odysseus because I've tied myself to the ship's mast, and I'm not going near the under.
No, I'm making a strong contrarian play here, and I'm taking the over. The reason is that this total is just too low. I know that Wisconsin is never in a rush to get anywhere and that both of these teams are led by their defenses, but I'm not overlooking turnovers. Miami forces them as well as anybody, but Malik Rosier is prone to giving the ball away himself. Then there's Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook, and he's good for at least one per game. Well, turnovers lead to points, so turnovers are bad for unders. There will be turnovers in this game, and there will be more points than you're expecting. Wisconsin 28, Miami 24
Peach Bowl: No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 12 UCF (Under 67) -- Jan. 1: I want to make one thing clear from the jump. I expect Auburn to win this game, and win it with ease. Don't get me wrong, UCF is a very good team. You don't go 12-0 by accident, but there's just so much working against the Knights here. First of all, I don't have a lot of faith that this weird experiment where Scott Frost coaches UCF while simultaneously being the coach at Nebraska is going to work out. Second of all, UCF's offense is fantastic, but it hasn't come across a defense that even resembles Auburn's.
Still, the spread is quite large, and it may get even larger as kickoff approaches. That's why I'm a lot more comfortable with the under here because I just don't think UCF will have nearly the same kind of success on offense that we're used to seeing. They just don't have the talent and speed advantage against Auburn like they do so many of their AAC counterparts. That doesn't mean UCF doesn't deserve to be in this game, nor will it tarnish what was a wonderful season. It just mean's Auburn's defense is really good. Auburn 35, UCF 21
| | Last Week | 2017 Overall |
|---|---|---|
| Pick Six | 3-3 | 57-38-1 |