Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-to-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.
Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
Last week: 4-4 (50 percent) | 2016 season: 18-20 (47 percent)
Florida (-10) at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt picked up a huge overtime win against Western Kentucky, storming back on the road with 10 fourth-quarter points to force extra time. There wasn't a ton to like about the Commodores performance within the game or on the stat sheet, but a win keeps bowl hopes alive for the moment. We're expecting to see Florida quarterback Austin Appleby back under center with Del Rio out, but that downgrade doesn't seem as drastic after the Tennessee game. Ultimately, Florida's defense is much better than WKU's, so I feel comfortable ruling out the chances of Vanderbilt pulling a Tennessee should the Gators take an early lead (I'd prefer this at -9.5 though). Pick: Gators -10
Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia: As of Wednesday morning, Nick Chubb had shown "some improvement" in regards to the sprained ankle that has him questionable for Saturday's game in Athens. The betting line has been bouncing around 3 all week, with many predicting a stronger performance from the Bulldogs after getting routed by Ole Miss. Chubb or no Chubb, I'm starting to have some doubts about this Georgia team. His yards per carry have dropped off since the opener against UNC and the offense just doesn't appear to have enough pieces for Jacob Eason to flourish as a freshman. I'll be glad to be wrong if the Bulldogs rise up and steal a win against the Vols, but at the moment there's just not a lot of confidence, even to cover a 3.5-point spread at home. Pick: Vols -3.5
Auburn (-32.5) vs. ULM: Auburn's struggles in the red zone on offense continue to be a frustration for fans, but ULM brings what should be a friendly antidote for the condition. The Warhawks allowed five touchdowns in six red zone defense opportunities against Oklahoma and their season total (allowing a scores on 87.5 percent of opponents red zone tries) falls below the national average. If Auburn gets touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, there should be enough possessions in this game to win by five touchdowns. However, I'm not positive that Sean White and the offense are in a position to win by five touchdowns right now, even against ULM. Pick: Warhawks +32.5
Texas A&M (-18) at South Carolina: Kentucky's win might have been a feel-good moment for Mark Stoops' defense, but the other side of that tale is woeful performance from the Gamecocks' offense. If South Carolina can't move it against Kentucky, how in the world can we expect that group to find success against Myles Garrett, Daeshon Hall and this terrifying Texas A&M defense. The Aggies might be ripe for a letdown performance, but even that probably ends with a 31-10 win. Pick: Aggies -18
Alabama (-35) vs. Kentucky: Don't pick this game. But if you do, don't overthink it. Kentucky has never won in Tuscaloosa, is coming off a much-needed win and Alabama hasn't scored less than 38 points all season. I don't see a single schematic or psychological edge for the Wildcats and expect 45-0 or 45-7 as the final score. If there's any psychological edge in the matchup, it's the deleted "This week is personal..." tweet from Alabama running back and Berea, Kentucky, native Damien Harris. Harris might be banged up, but he's made it clear that he'll be running hard if he's in the game. Pick: Crimson Tide -35
Ole Miss (-14.5) vs. Memphis: This is a tricky spot for a pick. Memphis may be overvalued coming off a 77-3 thrashing of Bowling Green that saw Riley Ferguson throw for 359 yards and six touchdown passes in just two quarters of work. Ole Miss, playing its third straight game at home, has its own stock fluctuation after blowing out Georgia. The key stat for me here is play count. Ole Miss' defense has tallied 319 plays this season (eighth-most in FBS) while Memphis' defense has not only played one less game, but carries a 211-play count that ranks among the least in college football. At 14.5, I'm siding with the hook but not feeling great about it, thinking Ole Miss wins but allows Memphis to hang around enough to cover. Pick: Tigers +14.5
Missouri (+13) at LSU: Ed Orgeron and LSU will play inspired, and Tiger Stadium will honor him with cheers after LSU wraps up this cathartic win on Saturday night. But given Missouri's salty defense, an offensive staff in flux and the loss of Les Miles, I think that win looks more like 20-10 than 28-10. Pick: (Mizzou) Tigers +13