The honeymoon is over: Harbaugh, No. 9 Michigan face razor-thin margin for error

The buzz calmed (a little) on the Harbaugh-era at Michigan after a 24-17 loss to Utah in the 2015 season opener. But that game, which took place on the Thursday of college football's five-day marathon opening weekend, was quickly viewed through a new lens when Utah jumped up into the top five of the polls and Michigan started imposing its will on teams behind a vicious defense.

The Wolverines allowed just 14 points combined in its next five games, all wins with three shutouts, and entered Michigan State week as the No. 12 team in the country. The Big House was rocking in the final seconds because Michigan had its hated rival on the ropes, until the unthinkable.

The howls you hear in that video clip almost sound like cheering, but it is most certainly not. No, those sounds are the howls of crushed dreams for 100,000-plus in attendance having the rug pulled out from under them by Sparty. It was a game that Michigan supposedly had in the bag, a top-10 signature victory at home for Harbaugh. The signature shot of the mesmerized Michigan fan with his hands on his head -- full "surrender cobra" position -- became one of the season's most frequently referenced moments.

Jon Solomon would later put together a great explanation of the punter Blake O'Neill's scramble, including a possible mix-up in translating Australian rules football to the modern college game. It was a freak play that ended in a freak accident (Michigan State's Jalen Watts-Jackson ended up going to the hospital with a dislocated hip after scoring the touchdown) and shifted, just slightly, the expectations for Jim Harbaugh in 2016.

If Michigan beats Michigan State, Harbaugh not only has that signature win against a rival and top-10 opponent but maybe even a Big Ten East title. That's the kind of margin for error Harbaugh is facing in Ann Arbor, where one special teams mix-up can strip away the opportunity to achieve success at the sport's highest level.

The honeymoon is over for Harbaugh. After signing some of the best recruits in the country, leading Michigan to its first 10-win season since 2011 and energizing one of the sport's largest and most rabid fan bases, Harbaugh is expected to bring trophies to Ann Arbor in 2016. To quote colleague Dennis Dodd, "What Harbs has done for the sale of khakis he now has to accomplish at Michigan."

Though Harbaugh has said that outside expectations and perceptions "rise and fall with the day, sometimes by the hour," he and the Michigan staff have "very high" expectations for the team this season. Unfortunately, this isn't the most ideal schedule for an improvement on last year's 10-win total. It's possible that Michigan could be a more talented and complete team than it was a year ago and match its record.

That final stretch of the Michigan schedule -- road trips to Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State in a one-month span -- is the toughest late-season slate that any top-15 team will face this season. Michigan faces good odds to win at least one of those games and long odds to win all three. Harbaugh will deftly deflect probing questions trying to put that month of football into a larger context, but everyone else will measure his impact on Michigan by how the team performs against the best in the Big Ten.

Luckily for Michigan fans, some of the best talent in the Big Ten suits up in maize and blue.

You're not going to find any pair of defenders in the league generating as much excitement as Jabrill Peppers and Jourdan Lewis. Lewis played corner at an All-American level a year ago and Peppers could be even more dangerous as he moves to a nickel-linebacker hybrid role under new defensive coordinator Don Brown. But lining up for one of the best DCs in the country won't be their only contribution; at the beginning of camp, Harbaugh suggested that both might be three-way players (defense, offense, special teams).

Peppers won't be able to beat Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State himself, but he might be able to play every position in those games.

"I think football players, professional football players are the greatest athletes in the world and Jabrill is that kind of athlete. He's the kind of athlete that has the greatest in the world type of athleticism," Harbaugh said last month before listing every position where we might see Peppers this fall: cornerback, safety, nickel, linebacker, punt returner, kick returner, gunner, hold-up guy, slot receiver, outside receiver, running back and, yes, wildcat quarterback.

Up front, Michigan will have a chance to capitalize on another instant-impact New Jersey prospect with defensive tackle Rashan Gary. Harbaugh has no problem playing freshmen, in his self-described "meritocracy," players are judged by talent and effort, not seniority. When a player has as much talent as the 6-foot-5, 293-pound consensus No. 1 prospect, you'd think there's a good chance he's going to reach the effort level necessary to see the field.

The offensive side of the ball isn't as sexy as it pertains to top recruits, but there are four returning starters on the line with at least two-dozen starts each and efficient pass catchers with Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and tight end Jake Butt.

Juniors Wilton Speight and John O'Korn appear to be the leaders for the starting quarterback role, but no one seems too concerned about Michigan's ability to succeed with either player under center.

Only twice in the last nine years have the Wolverines finished the year higher in the polls than where they started in the preseason. The AP Poll has Michigan at No. 7, the Coaches Poll at No. 8 and the team checks in at No. 9 here in the CBS 128. If finishing the season in a better place than they started is the measuring stick, then the Wolverines may need some of that unlikely luck that helped the Spartans escape the Big House with a win one year ago.