jesus-luzardo.jpg
USATSI

Bold predictions are, by their very nature, unlikely to come true. That's the point. If I ask you for a bold prediction for the 2021 Fantasy Baseball season and you come back with, "Mike Trout will be the No. 1 overall player," you're not thinking bold enough. That might not be the most likely outcome, but it wouldn't surprise anyone. 

No, a bold prediction needs to be at least a little bit, and preferably a whole lot, out there. You shouldn't just throw stuff out there you don't believe in, but you should be stretching your belief to its breaking point. That's what I'm going for here, as I've got one bold prediction for the upcoming season for every team in the American League -- you can check out the National League bold predictions here. Plus, I went to Twitter to ask our audience for their bold predictions, too. In a way, think of these as a best-case scenario for every player or team mentioned. 

We break down Carlos Carrasco, Sixto Sanchez and other spring training updates on the Fantasy Baseball Today in 5 podcast embedded below. Make sure you subscribe at Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you get your podcasts for more of our comprehensive draft prep coverage:  

Angels -- Shohei Ohtani is a top 50-hitter and pitcher

I'm extremely excited about how Ohtani's spring has gone so far, and there's never been any doubting the talent on either side of the ball. It might be tough for him to hit this because his opportunities will be limited on both ends, but something like a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 11 K/9 in 120 innings and a .285/.355/.530 line with 25 HR and 10 SB isn't out of the question. That would be worth starting in any format, but it could make Ohtani one of the most valuable players in Fantasy in daily leagues where you can use him as either a hitter or a pitcher. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Astros -- Yordan Alvarez is a top-20 hitter

I'd like to see Alvarez actually get into a game before I fully buy in, but that could happen within the next week. That should give him plenty of time to get up to speed for Opening Day, assuming his surgically repaired knees don't become an issue again. Alvarez hit .313/.412/.655 in 87 games as a rookie in 2019, and had 50 homers and 42 doubles in 143 games between Triple-A and the majors that season. He already showed he can be one of the best hitters in baseball -- and had the exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, etc. to back it up. It's just a question of health. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Athletics -- Jesus Luzardo finishes top 10 in AL Cy Young 

It feels like there was more hype around Luzardo this time last season, and his ADP has moved up just 17 spots despite answering plenty of questions about how he would handle a full starter's workload in his rookie season. The Athletics limited him to 76 or fewer pitches in his first five starts and then let him loose the rest of the way, and he responded by throwing at least six innings in four of his final six starts. Luzardo will still likely have innings limitations this season, but that will be true of many pitchers this season, so we'll see some award finalists with relatively low inning totals. Luzardo has legitimate ace upside, and he could put it together as soon as this season. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Blue Jays -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an All-Star starter

I'm lower on Guerrero in my rankings than the industry consensus, which means I probably won't draft him in many leagues. However, I will make sure to draft him in at least one, because he's the kind of player you need some exposure to. Guerrero is noticeably slimmer than last season, and the hope here is that allows him to live up to his considerable potential after two fitful seasons to start his career. Guerrero has the second-most (four) batted balls hit at least 115 mph and the second-most (14) batted balls hit at least 110 mph since the start of the 2019 season in all of baseball, so it's obvious why you should be excited. He just has to start hitting those balls in the air more often -- of his 14 balls hit at least 110 mph, only four had a launch angle higher than 10 degrees. If he can do that, Guerrero can still be a Nolan Arenado-in-Coors-Field-esque four-category superstar. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Cleveland -- Triston McKenzie finishes as a top-35 SP

McKenzie's 3.24 ERA in eight appearances as a rookie was even more impressive than you probably realize. He hadn't pitched in a game in just under two years before making his MLB debut with 10 strikeouts in six innings against the Tigers last August. McKenzie's velocity faded as the season went on, and some are taking that as a sign that the rail-thin pitcher may not be able to hold up to a full-time starter's workload. I think it might be more a sign that he hadn't pitched in nearly two full years! McKenzie had a 2.68 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in his career before the injuries, and he worked up to 143 innings in 2017 as a 19-year-old, so there's certainly reason to believe he can be an impact starter in the majors. He may not get that chance on Opening Day, but he should be in the rotation before long, and I love the upside. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Mariners -- Mitch Haniger hits 25-plus HR and drives in 100 runs

You have to go back to 2018 to get a glimpse of Haniger playing at this level thanks to a myriad of core and back injuries. But he's back already playing in spring action and might even bat leadoff occasionally for the Mariners. He'll be near the top of the order one way or another, and he's averaged a 29-homer pace per-162 games for his MLB career. Let's hope he gets back there. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Orioles -- Trey Mancini is an All-Star

Here's another one I'm rooting for as much as predicting. Mancini missed all of 2020 following a diagnosis of colon cancer. But the last time we saw him, he hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 homers and 203 combined runs and RBI. It's impossible to know how Mancini will respond to returning to the grind of the MLB season, but we know the talent is there, and I'm pulling for him as much as anyone in the game. 

Dominate your Fantasy Baseball draft with our free Draft Kit, which gives you must-have sleepers, breakouts, busts, and rankings. Plus see the top players at each position, complete with winning projections. Get your guide now!

And one from the crowd ... 

Rangers -- Joey Gallo hits 50 HR 

For Gallo, it's not a question of whether he can hit 50 homers; he's never ranked lower than 13th in the league in average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives. For Gallo, it's simply a math problem: Can he play enough games and put enough balls in play to get there? Health is the first part of that equation, and strikeouts are the second part. If he plays 155 games and strikes out 35% of the time (his career low), he can probably get there. Given how hard and far Gallo hits the ball, you almost feel like he's gotta have one peak-Chris Davis season in him. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Rays -- Chris Archer is a top-50 SP

This one is definitely out there, with Archer coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery and having been held out of games so far in spring. He should be back in games within the next few days, and we'll get our first sense of how he looks, at which point this prediction could look better or a lot worse. Still, the Rays know how to get the most out of their pitchers in a way the Pirates haven't in a long time, and Archer figures to get back to the slider/four-seamer heavy approach that made him so effective in his last stint with the Rays. The days of Archer being a top-15 starter are gone, but maybe the Rays can wring some Fantasy relevance out of him yet. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Red Sox -- Alex Verdugo wins the AL batting title

Verdugo hit .308 in 2020, and he didn't really play all that well -- his strikeout rate spiked and his batted-ball metrics moved in the wrong direction across the board. That's a regression alert for you, but it's also a sign of how conducive his skill set and home park are to supporting a high batting average. I'm expecting improvement across the board from Verdugo, who has seemingly put his back issues behind him, he should be a contender for the batting title as long as he calls Fenway home. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Royals -- Andrew Benintendi has 40 combined HR+SB

The Royals are hoping that a change of scenery does Benintendi right, and it's not so long ago that the idea of a 20-20 season wasn't so outlandish for him. Fenway is a good hitter's park overall, but it's a very tough place for a lefty to hit for power, and Benintendi got away from the approach that made him successful early in his career, as his pull and flyball rates consistent ticked up over his years in Boston. Hopefully, the Royals can get his swing right, and we know they're willing to let guys run if they've got the wheels. With a likely spot near the top of the lineup, Benintendi could be in line for a bounce back. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Tigers -- Willi Castro has 40 combined HR+SB

Based on the minor-league track record, the steals might have to carry more of the weight here, but Castro showed enough pop in 2020 that it's not outlandish to think he could hit 20-25 homers. While Castro's average exit velocity was extremely low, he ranked in the 64th percentile in expected ISO thanks to a pull-heavy approach. Add in an 84th percentile rank in sprint speed, and the tools are here if Castro takes a step forward as a hitter. 

And one* from the crowd ... 

*I had to include all three of these because I was just tickled that the best Tigers fans could come up with was that they might finish fourth in the weakest division in baseball. 

Twins -- Byron Buxton is top five in AL MVP 

Buxton actually has two top-20 finishes in MVP voting, including a 16th-place finish last season in just 39 games. Being one of the best defensive players in the league has its perks. Buxton has obviously struggled to stay on the field throughout his career, but he's improved as a hitter in recent years, sporting a .259/.299/.534 line between 2019 and 2020. That includes 23 homers and 16 steals in just 126 games, so there's legitimate 30-20 upside here, with borderline elite batted-ball quality and sprint speed numbers to back it up. Buxton is one of my absolute favorite players to draft in category formats, and if he stays healthy, he's going to be a superstar. 

And one from the crowd ... 

White Sox -- Yoan Moncada has a new career highs in R, HR, RBI, SB

Which is to say, I think Moncada is going to go back to hitting like he did in 2019 while staying healthy. His 2020 struggles are pretty easily attributable to his bout with COVID, and 2019 was the year he finally put all of his elite physical tools together at the same time. Moncada's going to be one of the best bounce back players in the league. 

And one from the crowd ... 

Yankees -- Giancarlo Stanton hits 50-plus homers

It's not quite as simple as "just stay healthy," but it's not that far off. Stanton is still the premier hard-hit king, ranking second in the majors in batted balls hit over 115 mph over the past two seasons despite playing just 18.5% of the Yankees games. He has hit 1% of the pitches he has seen over 115 mph in that span, compared to 0.2% for Pete Alonso and 0.3% for Aaron Judge. He reminded us of what he is still capable of with six homers in seven playoff games last season, and if he can manage to play 150 games -- something he did in both 2017 and 2018 -- he can get to 50 homers. 

And one from the crowd ... 

So which Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.