2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: A trio of shortstop prospects leads Frank Stampfl's Sleepers 1.0
Target these undervalued players in your drafts
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15 min read
Last week I got busts out of the way, and now we get to the fun part… sleepers. As I've said many times before, sleepers are synonymous with undervalued. For those paying close attention to Fantasy Baseball, there are no such things as sleepers. Instead, I put together a list of players who I believe have the potential to outperform their early ADP.
This list is all over the place, by the way. I have over-the-hill veterans, yet-to-debut prospects, injury bounce-backs, and everything in between. When I first started looking into which players I wanted to write about, I said I would keep this list to 10 names. Instead, I wound up with at least one sleeper at each position (and way more than 10 total). Enough blabbing, let's get it on!
Just a heads up that I used NFBC ADP for the month of January (so far).
Make sure to check out all of our Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts:
- Sleepers 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Breakouts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
- Busts 1.0: Scott | Chris | Frank
It's hard to believe Gabriel Moreno is only turning 26 in February. We've heard his name for a long time, and I'm sure many have fatigue by now. I'm here to tell you that Moreno is still loaded with potential, and he actually started to realize that last season. Moreno has great discipline and has always hit the ball hard. The problem is that a lot of that hard contact went straight into the ground. He changed that in 2025, raising his average launch angle from 8.8 degrees to 14.4. According to Statcast, Moreno dropped his GB rate from 50 percent in 2024 to 39 percent in 2025. His pulled air rate nearly doubled from 7.8 percent to 14.6 percent. He's finally starting to figure it out.
Over Moreno's final 30 games, he hit .311 with four homers, 20 RBI, an .863 OPS, and an 8.3 percent barrel rate. His groundball rate was just 26 percent during that span! The last hurdle for Moreno will be the injuries. He's yet to play more than 111 games in a season and has played less than 100 each of the past two years. If he stays on the field for 110-120 games, I'm convinced we will get his best season yet. Let's say he hits .280-plus with 12-15 home runs, a handful of steals, and great counting stats, hitting in the middle of that Diamondbacks lineup. Target Moreno as an upside second catcher in two-catcher leagues or a flier in H2H points formats because of his great plate discipline.
Alec Burleson is somebody who continues to improve. Over the past three years, his OPS has jumped from .691 to .735 to .801 while his wRC+ has gone from 89 to 106 to 124. He's always made a lot of contact, but now he's starting to optimize that contact. Last season, Burleson posted career-highs in average exit velocity (91 MPH) and barrel rate (9.5 percent). He also improved against left-handed pitching, hitting .271 with a .708 OPS. I get that it was a small sample size (127 plate appearances vs. LHP), but with Willson Contreras gone, I believe the Cardinals are just going to give Burleson everyday playing time at first base.
Burleson has always given me Josh Naylor vibes as a hitter. He makes a ton of contact, hits the ball decently hard, and continues to improve his launch angle. With everyday playing time, I believe we'll see his best season yet. I envision Burleson hitting .275-plus with 20-plus homers, 5-10 steals, and strong RBI. Those numbers don't blow you away, but it's solid production across the board without hurting you anywhere. Having first base and outfield eligibility doesn't hurt, either. Target Burleson as your corner infielder, an OF4/5 in Roto leagues or a late-round flier in H2H formats.
METS DOUBLE DIP
Jorge Polanco just finished as the seventh-best second baseman in Roto and the 10th-best in H2H points, and, based on early ADP, nobody cares. Polanco has had a very hard time staying healthy, but last year he did and went on to hit 26 homers with an .821 OPS. His strikeout rate was just 16 percent, and he hit the ball hard! His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity and 10.3 percent barrel rate both ranked top-five among qualified second basemen last season. While he won't play second base with the Mets in 2026, he still has that eligibility for Fantasy. I get that there's injury-risk here, but Polanco is going late enough where that risk is worth the reward, especially when he's projected to bat in the middle of the Mets lineup. Target Polanco as a middle infielder with pop or a fallback second baseman in H2H points leagues.
I will admit there's a real chance Marcus Semien is just cooked, but you know what, Stranger Things have happened (hated the ending, by the way). We said the same thing about George Springer last offseason, and look at him! Yes, Springer was the exception, not the rule, but I still think Semien could contribute something. He got off to a brutal start last season, but then reminded us in June that he still has some juice left. In the month, Semien hit .324 with four homers, two steals, and a .932 OPS. While his overall offensive production has dipped the past two years, Semien's underlying data looks pretty similar to what it's always been. He doesn't hit the ball hard, but makes a lot of contact, pulls a decent amount of his fly balls, and remains very fast. Let's say he hits .240-.250 with 20 homers, 15 steals, and decent counting stats. If Semien can approach those numbers, he's currently undervalued.
Kazuma Okamoto signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays this offseason, and that is a match made in heaven. As we saw in the postseason, Blue Jays hitters had this perfect blend of contact and power in their approach. That's pretty much the player they're getting in Okamoto. He's coming off a season in Japan where he hit .327 with 15 homers, a 1.014 OPS, and the same number of walks as strikeouts in just 69 games. Among NPB hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, Okamoto ranked first in OPS (1.014) and first in wRC+ (210). His power is legit, too. He started his NPB career with six straight seasons of 30-plus homers, including one season with 41 and another with 39.
Kazuma Okamoto's 2025 NPB Percentiles (min. 100 PA) pic.twitter.com/0gXKbhpW26
— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) November 10, 2025
While Okamoto doesn't have incredible raw power, he pulls the ball in the air at an incredible rate. This is the trick we talk about often when analyzing players like Isaac Paredes and Alex Bregman. They don't have big raw power, either, but they optimize the angle of the ball of the bat. When we put all of this together, we get a pretty complete hitter in a great Blue Jays lineup. I'd bet on a transition period, and maybe Okamoto gets off to a slow start, but once things start to click, I believe he'll put up some big numbers. I actually think Paredes and Bregman are pretty good examples of what you should expect from Okamoto once he gets going.
TRIO OF SHORTSTOP PROSPECTS
Konnor Griffin
SS
MiLB stats
BA.333
R117
HR21
RBI94
SB65
NFBC ADP205
I know top prospects have struggled in their first taste in the majors in recent years, but there's no risk when these three are going so late. Through 18 days of January, each of Konnor Griffin, JJ Wetherholt, and Kevin McGonigle are going outside the top-200 picks in NFBC ADP. Let's start with Griffin, who was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. Simply put, he is a freak. In his first minor-league season, Griffin hit .333 with 21 homers, 117 runs scored, 94 RBI, 65 steals, and a .941 OPS! He improved at each level, even getting 21 games in at Double-A as a 19-year-old. It would be extremely aggressive for Griffin to be up on Opening Day, but the Pirates need to capitalize while Paul Skenes is still on their team. According to Jeff Passan, Pittsburgh is strongly considering giving Griffin the opportunity to win their starting shortstop job. His ADP is one to monitor, but assuming it doesn't rise too much, Griffin should definitely be on your radar as a late-round option.
JJ Wetherholt
2B
MiLB stats
BA.306
R82
HR17
RBI59
SB23
NFBC ADP262.4
Next up, we have JJ Wetherholt, a first-round pick by the Cardinals back in 2024. Wetherholt is 23 years old and appears to be knocking on the door to the bigs. Last season, he hit .306 with a .421 OBP, 17 homers, 23 steals, and a .931 OPS across three levels. Like Griffin, Wetherholt got better each time he moved up a level, posting a .978 OPS in 47 games at Triple-A. Wetherholt is not as dynamic as Griffi,n but he's an extremely polished hitter (nearly as many walks as strikeouts) with solid power and speed. The Cardinals have been tearing down their roster and aren't done yet. I'd still bet on Brendan Donovan getting moved before spring training. Once that happens, Wetherholt will have two positions available to try and win: second or third base. Wetherholt should be on your radar as a late-round flier, especially in H2H points leagues due to his strong plate discipline.
Kevin McGongile is a lot like Wetherholt, except he might have a little more juice. McGonigle was limited to just 88 games last season, but when he played, he dominated. He hit .305 with a .408 OBP, 19 homers, 10 steals, and a .991 OPS across three levels. The difference between McGonigle and Wetherholt is that McGonigle didn't make it all the way to Triple-A. He had an ankle injury earlier in the season that delayed his progression. McGonigle did, however, play in the Arizona Fall League, where he put up huge numbers and eventually won league MVP. Chris Towers and I had a chance to watch McGonigle twice in the AFL, and he looked like a man among boys (see below). We'll see how aggressive the Tigers want to be with McGonigle this spring, but they could slow-play him a little bit, considering he hasn't played above Double-A. Even if he starts the season in the minors, he's worth drafting and stashing given his incredible approach, power, and speed.
I might just have to go to every Kevin McGonigle game! Blasted a two-run shot here #FPAZ pic.twitter.com/IgT9ms7CoO
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) November 7, 2025
Some of the biggest league winners last season were veteran bats coming off injury-plagued seasons. I keep going back to Anthony Santander as one of the hitters who could do something similar in 2026. He dealt with a shoulder issue all season, returned in September, and then got shut down in the playoffs with a back injury. He was never right, hitting just .175 with six homers and a .565 OPS in 54 games. Let's not forget what Santander did back in 2024, though. He hit 44 homers with 102 RBI, finishing as a top-seven outfielder in both Roto and H2H points leagues. From 2022-2024, Santander was actually one of the most reliable sluggers in baseball. During that three-year stretch, his 105 homers were sixth most, while his .234 isolated power ranked in the top 20 among qualified hitters.
I don't think Santander will get back to hitting 44 bombs, but can he hit around 30? I think so, and if he does so in this Blue Jays lineup, the counting stats should be plentiful. Back in December, we got a good report from Blue Jays manager John Schneider, too. "Tony is going to be huge for us… He is motivated. He is hungry to get back to the player we know he is." Santander should fit this Blue Jays team like a glove. When he's at his best, he avoids strikeouts and hits for power. Like I mentioned with Okamoto, that's exactly what this Blue Jays team did in the postseason. Santander's batting average will be a drag, but I believe he can produce above-average home runs and RBI. He's also a name you can target late in H2H points leagues since he typically avoids strikeouts.
I want to quickly mention two deep-league outfield prospects, one that should provide big speed and another who should provide power. First up, we have Justin Crawford, son of former Major Leaguer Carl Crawford. Justin was a first-round pick back in 2022, and so far, his skillset is very similar to his father's! He hits for a high batting average with a bunch of steals. In 112 games at Triple-A last season, Crawford hit .334 with 46 steals and 88 runs scored. He actually hits the ball harder than you'd expect for a speedster, but a large majority of his batted balls go straight into the ground. Crawford still needs to earn his spot on the Opening Day roster, but it sure sounds like Phillies President Dave Dombrowski believes that will happen. If you're looking for this year's Chandler Simpson, it very well could be Crawford.
The outfield prospect who should provide power is Owen Caissie. He arrived in Miami a few weeks back via the Edward Cabrera trade. While Miami is not the best hitting environment, Caissie has light-tower power that should translate anywhere... assuming he makes enough contact. Caissie is 23 years old and just hit 22 homers in 99 games at Triple-A last season. He posted a 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and his 16.9 percent barrel rate, which ranked in the 96th percentile. His issue has been strikeouts. Caissie's posted strikeout rates above 27 percent at every single level of the minors, and that's something he'll definitely have to work on. Like Crawford, it sounds like Caissie has a very real chance to be on his team's Opening Day roster. I actually think his skillset is very similar to teammate Kyle Stowers, who just had a breakout season of his own. I'm hoping Stowers takes Caissie under his wing and helps him tap into that massive power in year one.
People aren't sleeping on Nick Lodolo in the truest sense of the word, but I do think he's undervalued based on early ADP. Lodolo finally had his breakout season last year, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over a career-high 156.2 innings. How'd he do it? He improved the control and tweaked the pitch-mix. Entering last season, Lodolo had a 7.8 percent walk rate in his career, but in 2025, he dropped it down to 4.8 percent. I have no idea if that's sustainable, but it's obviously a step in the right direction. As for the pitch-mix, Lodolo lowered the sinker usage and added more changeups. The sinker gets hit hard while the changeup has been solid. Last season, that changeup had a .201 batting average against with a 28 percent whiff rate.
Lodolo got better in the second half, too. His strikeout rate jumped from 22 percent in the first half to 30 percent in the second half. He threw more curveballs after the All-Star break, which makes sense as it's far and away his best pitch. I believe Lodolo has figured it out and could perform like an SP2 this season. The metrics back it up. Among pitchers with 150 innings last season, Lodolo ranked top 20 in K-BB rate, xFIP, SIERA, xERA, and swinging strike rate. He's missed time in the past, but it's mostly been blisters and lower-body issues. Of course, I'd rather him have a clean bill of health, but at least it hasn't been arm-related. I'm viewing Lodolo like Cristopher Sanchez and Bryan Woo from last season, a pitcher going in the middle rounds who could take another step forward this year. Don't miss out!
Has everybody forgotten that Kris Bubic was a beast last season? In 20 starts, he posted a 2.55 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. His 14.4 Fantasy points per game ranked higher than Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, and Framber Valdez. When Bubic is at his best, he gets whiffs and ground balls while limiting hard contact. What more could you ask for? Health, duh! Bubic was shut down in late July with a rotator cuff strain and did not return last season. I understand the severity of the situation, but his upside is worth the risk outside the top-200 picks. Look at his teammate, Cole Ragans. He also dealt with a rotator cuff strain, but returned in September and didn't miss a beat. It's a scary injury, but not an impossible one to come back from.
Bubic has mostly a four-pitch mix, and all of them are quality offerings. His four-seam fastball, changeup, and sweeper each had an xwOBA below .290 last season. To put that in perspective, here are some qualified hitters who had an xwOBA below .290: Alek Thomas, Gabriel Arias, and Adam Frazier. I think you get the point. While Bubic has a good mix of pitches, everything starts with his fastball. It's not hard at 92 MPH, but he gets great extension and induced vertical break on the pitch. The 27 percent whiff rate on his fastball ranked in the 89th percentile last season. Bubic is definitely a risk with the shoulder injury from last season, but his upside is SP2 production. Who knows, maybe he even finds a way to stay on the mound in a contract year.
I'll move much quicker through these deep starting pitcher sleepers, but I have a trio I wanted to mention. Robby Snelling is up first. The Marlins have already traded away Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers this offseason. Part of why they can afford to do that is that they have elite pitching prospects in Snelling and Thomas White. I believe Snelling will get the first opportunity, and I am very excited about his potential. He has a four-pitch mix, but it's mostly his four-seam and curve that do the heavy lifting from the left-hand side. Last year in the minors, Snelling did a great job getting whiffs, inducing ground balls, and limiting hard contact. He also threw six-plus innings in 14 of 25 starts, which is an outlier for a pitching prospect. I believe Snelling will win a job in the Marlins rotation this spring and will continue to rise up draft boards.
As a general thesis for 2026, I like buying low on Rays pitchers now that they're moving back into Tropicana Field. For whatever reason, the Trop helps pitchers' stuff play up, which leads to more strikeouts in that venue. One of the Rays pitchers you can get very late is Ian Seymour. We've heard the name as a prospect for years, but he finally got called up last season and impressed. Seymour put up a massive 26 percent strikeout rate behind a 12 percent swinging strike rate. His fastball, changeup, and sweeper all generated whiffs at an above-average rate. I also like that he's another one of these funky lefties at a time when that type of pitcher is thriving. He's not locked into a rotation spot as of now, but I believe he'll win one this spring. Seymour is also a SPARP for those in H2H points leagues.
Speaking of funky lefties, can I interest you in Parker Messick? The Guardians called him up late last season, and he impressed in his seven starts. He got decent whiffs, limited the walks, and induced a good amount of ground balls. I'm a little skeptical of his control given the minor-league numbers, but overall I'm intrigued by him as a talent. Messick has a nasty fastball-changeup combination and a slider he mixes in to get lefties out. The fastball generated a 29 percent whiff rate, which ranked in the 95th percentile. Also, the Guardians have a pretty good track record when it comes to pitching. Like Seymour, it's not a guarantee that Messick is in the rotation, but I have confidence he'll win a job this spring.
