You can't draft a perfect team. Whether you're playing in a H2H points league or a Rotisserie league, whether you're in a snake draft or a Salary Cap draft, you're always going to have to make sacrifices. Fantasy Baseball players are simply too sharp, with too many tools at their disposal for any one team to truly dominate a draft.
But you can still try, and in today's newsletter, that's what we're doing. I went through NFBC ADP over the past two weeks, so we have the latest prices on all the players who are already moving up or down draft boards at the start of Spring Training, and I selected my favorite player being drafted in every round, from one through 20.
It's easy to find a favorite pick in the first round, but in many ways, it's even easier for the 20th round, because the stakes are lower the further down you get in your draft. And, this isn't necessarily my perfect draft -- there are more early-round starting pitchers than I'd typically prefer in this exercise, though I will do a perfect draft at some point.
Before we get to that, though, let's quickly catch up on what you might have missed from the Fantasy Baseball Today team over the past few days. First of all, we went extra-long on our Starting Pitcher Preview series, with three episodes -- almost five hours total! -- to make sure you're ready to attack one of the most pivotal positions in Fantasy. Part 1 is right here, where we look at the aces; we went through the rest of the top 36 in Part 2; and we tackled everything else you need to know about in Part 3. And we finished the position preview series with the Relief Pitcher Preview Wednesday night, which is a slightly less important position, but actually pretty interesting in 2024 thanks to a changing landscape and a bunch of interesting SPaRPs.
Scott White and I also dug deep for some sleeper candidates over at CBSSports.com, too. For my part, I focused on Rotisserie leagues, highlighting late-round help for all five hitting and all five pitching categories. Scott took a more general view, highlighting his 12 favorite post-hype sleepers for 2024, guys you might have written off prematurely like Eloy Jimenez and Reid Detmers -- I'm in agreement on both of those, and I drafted both in a 12-team H2H points league we did Wednesday night.
And, for those of you drafting this weekend, we've put everything you need in one helpful place. Head here for our printable Fantasy Baseball Today Draft Prep Guide -- we've got consensus rankings for both H2H and Roto formats, tiers and strategies for each position, plus our latest mock drafts to help you on Draft Day.
Alright, with that out of the way: My favorite picks in every round for 2024 drafts!
My favorite pick in every round
1st round: Fernando Tatis, OF, Padres -- ADP: 8.0
My love of Tatis this season should come as no surprise by now. I picked him to be "This Year's Ronald Acuña" last week, and I'm pretty much drafting him anytime he's available after the fifth pick – he's my No. 5 player in Roto leagues, after all! As I wrote here, it's a bet on a guy who was one of the best hitters we've ever seen from his age-20 through age-22 seasons:
2nd round: Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles -- ADP: 21.8
In his career, Corbin Burnes has a 3.65 ERA at his former home park in Milwaukee, compared to a 2.88 mark everywhere else. On a related note, Orioles pitchers have a 3.77 ERA at home since the team moved back the fences in the outfield in 2022, compared to a 4.11 mark on the road. Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, he's pitching half his games in a fantastic home park, for a team that just won 100 games, and he's the clear No. 3 pitcher in Fantasy for me; closer to No. 2 than No. 4, too.
3rd round: Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets -- ADP: 25.6
From 2019 through 2022, Pete Alonso had a higher batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage than Matt Olson. He had more home runs. He had more RBI and runs. He had more stolen bases, even. I know Olson is coming off the massive year and Alonso had a relative down year, but the most recent season isn't the only one that matters. Just make sure to thank your league mates for the discount on Alonso when you pick him.
4th round: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Dodgers -- ADP: 43.8
We haven't seen Yamamoto pitch at the MLB level, so some degree of skepticism around him is warranted. But a very smart organization just gave him $300 million-plus, and very smart people have compared his arsenal to some of the best pitchers in baseball. There's some risk here, certainly, but I think he's a viable SP1 for Fantasy, and a great choice here.
5th round: Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies -- ADP: 58.2
Outside of maybe Gerrit Cole, Nola is probably the best bet in Fantasy for volume, both in terms of innings and strikeouts. He hasn't had a WHIP over 1.15 since 2019. And he's on a very good team that should provide plenty of opportunities for wins. I know the ERA has been over 4.45 in two of his past seasons, but I also know his ERA estimators are much better, and ERA fluctuates more than any other stat from one year to the next. Everything but the ERA is safe, and he had a 3.25 mark there just two years ago. He's a terrific rotation stabilizer as an SP2 thanks to the volume.
6th round: Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates -- ADP: 69.7
Cruz probably isn't quite the base stealer Elly De La Cruz is, but he might be an even better hitter – at the very least, he's proven more at the MLB level. I'm not too worried about any lingering effects from a fractured ankle that will be nearly 13 months removed by the time the season starts, and you might just be getting a unicorn with 30-30 potential in the sixth round.
7th round: Bobby Miller, SP, Dodgers -- ADP: 78.3
Miller was a very good strikeout pitcher in the minors. He came up to the majors armed with arguably the hardest fastball in baseball, and a complete five-pitch repertoire full of swing-and-miss pitches, so I'm really not that concerned about a relatively pedestrian strikeout rate as a rookie. This might be the last time you can draft Miller outside the first three rounds for the next half-decade.
8th round: Eury Perez, SP, Marlins -- ADP: 87.1
Perez was already better than Miller and Grayson Rodriguez as a rookie, and he won't even be able to drink legally in the United States until a few weeks after this season begins. His curveball, slider, and changeup were all among the top 10 in whiff rate in the entire league for those pitch types, and I don't see why he can't get to 170 innings after he threw 128 last season. There's a ceiling on how valuable Perez can be because he won't throw much more than 170 innings, but there's a chance he's the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis this season. That's the upside.
9th round: Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox -- ADP: 96.5
The Red Sox protected Casas from left-handed pitching early in his career, but he ended up with a .817 OPS against them, so I'm not really sure that'll be necessary here. He mashed his way to a .317/.417/.617 line after the All-Star break, and without any growth, looks like a pretty good bet for 30-plus homers without hurting you in batting average. And, with a 24-year-old with top prospect pedigree, betting on growth isn't a bad idea, either.
10th round: Cole Ragans, SP, Royals -- ADP: 108.3
There are some concerns about durability and command, but even accounting for that, this is just a phenomenal price for a player who showed the kind of upside Ragans did last year. After that trade to Kansas City, he made 12 starts, averaging six innings per start, with a 2.64 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, and 31% strikeout rate. He's got a whole arsenal full of swing-and-miss pitchers, led by a fastball he dialed up to triple digits last season. He might just be a top-15 SP.
11th round: Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians -- ADP: 126.3
Naylor hits the ball hard, with a ton line drives, and he does it without sacrificing anything in terms of contact – his 13.7% strikeout rate was downright elite for a power hitter. He has 178 RBI unjust 243 games the past two seasons and might be the best bet for 100-plus RBI of any player outside of the top 100 in ADP.
12th round: Sean Murphy, C, Braves -- ADP: 141.8
Murphy has admitted that playing in the heat of an Atlanta summer for the first time last season caught up to him, perhaps leading to his dreadful .159/.310/.275 line after the All-Star break. However, he also took a backswing to the head on consecutive games in early-August, and while he wasn't diagnosed with a concussion from either, I have to wonder if they didn't play a part in his struggles, as well.
13th round: Carlos Rodon, SP, Yankees -- ADP: 151.0
Rodon's stuff looked very similar in 2023 to 2022, but the results obviously weren't there. He dealt with forearm and back issues and that might explain why he struggled so much. He's healthy right now, however, and was pumping his fastball up to 97 mph in a recent bullpen session, so it sounds like he's where he needs to be. I get the skepticism, given Rodon's struggles last season as well as his long-running injury history, but I'm not sure there should be a 100-plus pick difference between Rodon and Tyler Glasnow, either.
14th round: Riley Greene -- ADP: 158.7
Along with Perez, Greene is one of the "players I love" for 2024. He is, by all accounts, healthy for the start of spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing hand, and looked like a plus hitter last season, ranking in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected BA, and expected slugging percentage. There's room for 15 steals and 25 homers, with a better batting average than you'd expect given his strikeout issues, because he hits so many hard line drives. Greene is going to be on all of my teams at this cost.
15th round: Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals -- ADP: 171.6
This time a year ago, Pasquantino was a top-100 pick, and he got off to a terrific start, hitting .267/.343/.471 with a 27-homer pace through the end of May. Since then, he had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, so a discount certainly makes sense. But he still has a contact-forward approach with 30-plus homer power, and while his home park isn't great, it's an improving Royals lineup around him that should put 90-plus RBI well within reach.
16th round: Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals -- ADP: 181.2
As a young, free-swinging lefty, Gorman feels like the kind of player who might have platoon issues, and the Cardinals occasionally treated him like one as a rookie. But he was actually better against lefties last season than righties, with a reasonable strikeout rate that suggests he has the skill set to be an everyday player, and that skill set might include 40 homers.
17th round: Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs -- ADP: 193.7
Last season in Japan, Imanaga had a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than Yamamoto. He struggled with home runs, and that might be tough to overcome, especially at home. But Imanaga has really good stuff, including a nasty splitter from the left side that MLB hitters will have very little experience with, which could give him an early edge. Imanaga has some risk, but he also has some upside not accounted for at this price.
18th round: Tyler O'Neill, OF, Red Sox -- ADP: 214.3
O'Neill is one of my favorite sleepers for this season, after being pretty out on him the previous couple of seasons. His depressed price helps, but the move to Fenway might be even more important – as I noted in my Sleepers 1.0 column, "over the past five seasons, right-handed hitters at Fenway have outperformed their expected wOBA by 12 points collectively. At Busch Stadium, O'Neill's former home park, RHB underperformed wOBA by 15 points."
19th round: Vaughn Grissom, SS, Red Sox -- ADP: 226.5
Grissom looks like a batting average standout, and now he's going to one of the best parks in baseball for boosting batting average. He could hit .290 with 15 homers and 15 steals in that park, and scouts have long thought there was more power coming with him. The floor is high, and the ceiling could be pretty high, too.
20th round: Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox -- ADP: 230.8
We're not that far removed from Jimenez being viewed as one of the most talented young hitters in the game. He hasn't lived up to expectations, he still hits the ball hard without many strikeouts, so I'm not giving up. Jimenez has real limitations to his game – he doesn't walk and he's a slow baserunner, so runs and steals will never be part of his game, and he has a lengthy injury history. But Jimenez still has 30-homer upside with a very useful batting average if he can just get back to his 2022 levels.
