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In past years, whenever a manager said he would go closer-by-committee or play matchups in the ninth inning — or however he wanted to word it — I'd give him a sideways look. A knowing smirk, a "sure he will", and begin counting down the days until he settled on a single option for the ninth.
It'd normally happen within a week. Despite his best intentions, departing from what worked last time flies in the face of human nature. The slog of a 162-game season pretty much forces those on the field to settle into whatever's easiest, and nothing's easier than routine.
This year, though, some of these managers seem to mean it. I'm referring specifically to those running the Angels, Astros, Phillies and White Sox. When the ninth inning comes, I have no idea what they're going to do.
Granted, nobody in those bullpens has taken the job and run with it, and maybe when someone does, a more predictable pattern will emerge. Bullpen usage for every manager is always subject to change. I just can't recall a time when this many closer openings were up in the air for so long.
Between those four bullpens and six others, changes are afoot in the ninth inning, and I'm here to help make sense of it all. As always, "pecking order" refers to how rosterable the pitcher is in Fantasy and not necessarily how likely he is to record the next save (though the two are often one and the same).
| Pecking order |
Blake Parker has handled four of the Angels' past five opportunities, which is as much consistency as Mike Scioscia has shown with the role in two years. And the one Parker didn't get — which instead went to rookie Justin Anderson — was because he had worked three of the previous four days. If I didn't know any better — and I don't because Scioscia would never tell us — I'd say Parker is the closer, just as we all figured he would be at the start of the season. He took a roundabout path there, but a 1.17 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 15 appearances since the start of May has turned the tide back in his favor.
| Pecking order |
I get that Ken Giles is uber talented, has a 2.06 FIP, and will probably have impressive-looking numbers at season's end. What I don't get is why manager A.J. Hinch hasn't moved on from him by now. The Astros bullpen is loaded with closer-caliber relievers ranging from Chris Devenski to Brad Peacock to Collin McHugh, and Giles is continually plagued by meltdowns the likes of which nearly cost the Astros a chance to play in the World Series last year. Hector Rondon, the former Cubs closer who himself has a 1.64 ERA this year, has been pitching in a high-leverage role recently and recorded a four-out save Wednesday. Not that he would have been my first choice to replace Giles, but ... we'll see.
| Pecking order |
Ryan Tepera converted consecutive save chances for the Blue Jays in late May, and while he didn't do so in overpowering fashion, he has gotten all the what-to-do-with-a-closer-when-no-saves-opportunities-present-themselves work since. And at this point, where else would the Blue Jays turn in the ninth? Tyler Clippard flamed out in spectacular fashion. Seung-Hwan Oh has similarly imploded. John Axford remains a possibility but hasn't gotten high-leverage work yet. Maybe Roberto Osuna will serve his time and make it back before the end of the season, but maybe not. It's Tepera or bust right now, despite my lack of confidence in him.
| Pecking order |
It feels like manager Craig Counsell is still reluctant to turn regular save opportunities back over to Corey Knebel, but that's only because the Brewers haven't had such an opportunity yet in June. Knebel, though, is responsible for each of the team's past four saves, and has worked the final inning in seven of his past eight appearances.
| Pecking order |
Now this one could get interesting. Hunter Strickland was designated only the interim closer when the Giants learned Mark Melancon wouldn't be ready for the start of the season. However, he has been reliable enough in the role, which is more than anyone can say for Melancon during his Giants tenure. So far, though, Melancon has struck out five of the seven hitters he has faced, offering an early indication that he's finally past the elbow flexor strain that dates back to last season. Then again, he has only worked in the seventh inning.
"This is what he's going to be doing, the sixth or seventh inning, helping out," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com.
Doesn't sound like a manager on the verge of making a switch. Still, Strickland has only a 3.37 FIP and a below-average strikeout rate for a closer, and Melancon is owed a lot of money. The switch seems inevitable to me, provided Melancon is healthy.
| Pecking order |
Brad Brach has settled back into the closer role after forcing manager Buck Showalter to experiment in April, recording seven of the Orioles' past eight saves with nine consecutive scoreless appearances. But he still allows too many baserunners, and the Orioles have no incentive to stick with him once Zach Britton returns from a ruptured Achilles, which he apparently could do within a week. Of course, given the current state of the Orioles, you can't expect Britton to get as many opportunities as he did in 2016, when he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting, but his return is still one to look forward to.
| Pecking order |
So exactly who is the Phillies closer right now? Officially, we have no reason to believe it's anyone other than Hector Neris, but officially, rookie manager Gabe Kapler has been dodgy on the matter, almost like it's his personal mission to reinvent the way baseball is played (this guy ... please). Personally, I don't think Neris deserves another chance given the kind of things Edubray Ramos and especially Seranthony Dominguez are doing. Kapler went right back to Neris after Dominguez recorded his first save — one of the two-inning variety — but Neris has allowed a run in more appearances than not since then. Dominguez did score the Phillies' most recent save, also of the two-inning variety.
| Pecking order |
Felipe Vazquez has been anything but lights-out this year, blowing four saves in a span of five chances in the second half of May. But only two of those outings were all that bad — he didn't allow an earned run in the other two — and he still has an admirable 2.91 FIP for the year. The Pirates have already locked up the lefty long-term and don't have an obvious replacement. Kyle Crick walks too many batters, and Richard Rodriguez, after a blistering start, has looked more pedestrian of late. I'm keeping the faith on Vazquez, as manager Clint Hurdle says he is.
| Pecking order |
Oh, who cares? Honestly, does anyone stand a chance now that Alex Colome, who was grandfathered into the more traditional ninth-inning role, is out of the picture? The Rays use their bullpen in the most ridiculous ways, cloaking their ineptitude in the appearance of progress(!) and forward thinking(!). Their most experienced save candidate, Sergio Romo, more often pitches the first inning for reasons that some weirdos will try to convince you are smart and good. Jose Alvarado looks like the most deserving ninth-inning candidate with a 2.73 ERA, 2.39 FIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but chances are half the Rays' saves will come from some non-starting pitcher piggybacking Romo for six innings.
| Pecking order |
You can't blame Rick Renteria for his lack of focus. The White Sox are lucky to win two games a week, so he may not even remember who got the last save chance by the time the next one comes up. Joakim Soria looked like he was on the outs, overtaken by Nate Jones, before converting back-to-back saves this week. But there was also that brief flirtation with Bruce Rondon in mid-May. I'm also not sure rookie lefty Jace Fry isn't the White Sox best reliever. The bottom line, though, is that if we can't even count on a regular option for the few save chances White Sox get, it's basically a lost cause in Fantasy.
