We spend a lot of time talking about who you should add in both this newsletter and on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, but we probably don't spend enough time talking about who you should drop.
That's tough, of course, because there are thousands of you out there with thousands of different rosters and leagues, and not all of you have the same players available to drop. But before we recap Wednesday's action, I do want to provide a general overview of how you should view potential drop candidates for the early season.
We'll start at the top of your draft: You probably shouldn't really even consider dropping any top-100 picks until May at the earliest. That's not always the case, of course – if you don't have IL spots in your league, you might have no choice but to drop Royce Lewis, whose recovery from a quad strain might extend multiple months. But, absent injury or something really concerning – like, say, getting sent to Triple-A, as happened to Esteury Ruiz, you're probably hanging on to all of your first, say, 10 picks.
And you probably shouldn't be thinking about dropping your top-200 picks, either, though obviously the deeper you go, the easier it's going to be to justify. Players picked in the 150-200 range probably have closer to a coin-flip's chance of ending up dropped for one reason or another than you'd think over the course of the long season, but if you liked someone like Daulton Varsho enough to invest a 15th-round pick on him, I wouldn't give up after a week or two.
After that? It's pretty much open season. Your late-round picks should have trended toward upside plays like A.J. Puk, who were inherently volatile picks to begin with. I still think there's a chance Puk figures it out, but with two pretty underwhelming starts under his belt after a loss to the Angels Wednesday, there really isn't anything to point to in his profile right now to justify hanging on to him. I wouldn't drop any player without an intriguing alternative to add, so don't just drop Puk because Ross Stripling had a good start Wednesday. But if Ronel Blanco, Tanner Houck, Luis Gil, Garrett Whitlock, or Jordan Hicks are available in your league? Yeah, you can go ahead and cut Puk for them, or one of the other promising (ideally young) pitchers who has popped up in the early going.
So there you go: One player you can drop!
In all seriousness, I hope this helps guide some of your roster decisions over the next week or so. These are just general guidelines, but it's how I'm approaching my teams, and how I think you should approach yours as well.
And now, here's what you need to know from Wednesday's action:
Wednesday's top waiver targets
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals (61%) – On the whole, Wednesday was not a great day for waiver-wire targets, so I'm just going back to the well again with Garcia, who homered yet again. He's now one homer away from matching last season's total, and while I don't think he's suddenly a threat to hit 30, or anything, he's elevating the ball to the pull side and already hit it plenty hard, so at this point I don't see any reason he shouldn't be universally rostered – just in case this power surge is for real.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros (57%) – Peña is one of those guys who reworked his swing this offseason, but he didn't get much hype for it during the spring because he didn't hit even a single homer in 14 games. Well, now he's got two in his past three games and is hitting .400 in the early going this season with just three strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate. He had 22 homers and 11 steals as a rookie and was universally rostered that season. Maybe he can get back to that level.
Taylor Ward, OF, Angels (46%) – Last year, Ward was was a top-120 pick in most leagues, and he really wasn't that bad – a 24-homer, 179-R-plus-RBI pace before a HBP cost him the final two months of the season. He's off to a very strong start to 2024, with three homers and a bunch of hard-hit balls, including a 410-foot bomb and two more hits Wednesday. He's still hitting cleanup behind Mike Trout, and probably matters more than you think for Fantasy.
Logan Allen, SP, Guardians (34%) – There have been so many brilliant pitching performances by waiver-wire eligible players already this season, that it's kind of hard to get excited about a merely good one. But Allen was a prospect of some renown when he made his debut last season, and I had him as a sleeper entering the season so this was noteworthy, even if he's no Garrett Crochet. Allen handled a pretty solid Mariners lineup, and is probably under-rostered at 34%, if you missed out on some of the buzzier pitching breakouts from the first week of the season.
Alex Kirilloff, 1B, Twins (25%) Kirilloff has hit safely in each game so far this season, with Wednesday against the Brewers clearly his best showing, with four hits in four at-bats – plus a walk! He had three hard-hit balls in this one, and he has struck out just twice in his first 20 trips to the plate. Injuries have made it tough on the once top prospect, so I'll take any signs of life here in deeper leagues.
Miguel Sano, 3B, Angels (2%) – Alright, now here's one for truly deep leagues. Sano lost 58 pounds this offseason in his bid to make the Angels roster out of spring, and he showed enough to at least clear that low bar. He was 1 for 10 with six strikeouts to open the season, but he showed some signs of life Wednesday against the Marlins, going 2 for 3 with a couple of doubles, a couple of walks, and three batted balls of at least 100 mph. Don't say I don't ever do anything for you AL-only players.