Spring Training updates: Velocity gains, red flags, and Fantasy risers

Most things that happen during Spring Training don't matter. Performance isn't the primary concern for many players during the spring, and even the ones who are battling for playing time are doing so against other players who might not be worried about their performance. It's a skewed and distorted version of baseball, and you can only learn so much.

But what we can learn from Spring Training is not nothing. Here are some stories from the past week or so that might matter when the season begins.

Ryan Weathers' velocity is up again

In his spring debut last week, Weathers hit 99.8 mph and averaged 98.5 mph with his four-seamer, both career-best marks. He looked awesome, though that isn't really the newsworthy part -- looking awesome has kind of become Weathers' default during Spring Training in recent years. The problem comes when he tries to carry it over to a healthy regular season, something he hasn't really shown the ability to do since his velocity started creeping up to the upper-90s in recent years. Weathers has thrown just 166.2 innings over the past two seasons combined, and no matter how dominant he might look this spring, I think he'll have to stay in the late-round discussion given the concerns about his health. But if he's available outside of the top 200 in any draft, it'll be a justifiable pick.

Ronald Acuna is already stealing bases

The last time Acuna even attempted multiple steals during Spring Training was back in 2021, when he attempted exactly two in 18 games. He stole two bases in a game over the weekend and has attempted three in four games so far. Add in 11 in 16 games during the Venezuelan Winter League, and that's 14 attempts in Acuna's last 20 games since the end of last season. That isn't necessarily proof that he's going to get back to being an elite source of stolen bases, but it feels like pretty compelling evidence -- if the Braves were going to try to limit Acuña's activities on the basepaths, you would figure it would come during exhibition games, no? I'm kind of expecting a 30-30 season from Acuna at this point, and that certainly isn't the ceiling.

Jac Caglianone had a batted ball over 120 mph

Even as spring storylines go, "Hey, check out this one batted ball this hitter had!" is pretty thin, I'll admit. But the thing about exit velocity is, generally speaking, you can't fake it. If you hit a ball 115 mph, it doesn't necessarily mean you will do it again, but it does mean you are capable of doing it. And 120 mph is a pretty special milestone, one only seven other players have reached in the Statcast Era (beginning in 2015: Giancarlo Stanton, Oneil Cruz, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani, Gary Sanchez, and now Jac Caglianone, who hit one 120.2 mph on Friday.

It's not exactly a secret that Caglianone has plus raw power, but this puts him in a different realm than even other very good power hitters. It's not a guarantee that he'll reach his full potential -- just look at Sanchez and Cruz's up-and-down careers for proof -- but it's a reminder of the impressive skill set he brings to the table. And it's been nice to see Caglianone off to a strong start this spring, even beyond that one specific laser.

Roki Sasaki still doesn't look impressive

To my eyes, at least. And to the various Stuff+ models, I guess -- Pitch Profiler's version gave Sasaki a 93 rating, one of the lowest of any pitcher who has taken the mound this spring. And that's with his velocity up to 96.9 mph, higher than it was in his stints in the rotation last season. The problem is that, while he generates pretty good extension to go with his plus velocity, the pitch just doesn't have the kind of movement profile modern MLB teams are looking for. He generates about 14-15 inches of induced vertical break, which just isn't special from his arm slot -- it's a classic "straight" fastball, and he doesn't command it especially well, either.

Sasaki still has his splitter, but it's clear he's trying to work on the rest of the arsenal, as he threw it just four times on 36 total pitches. He threw 11 cutters, a new pitch for Sasaki that replaces his ineffective slider; it's about 10 mph slower than his four-seamer, which makes me think it's designed to act more like a slider for his arsenal, though I don't know if he'll command it well enough to generate whiffs with it. And Sasaki also threw a few sinkers, which also didn't look great.

I dunno, there's still an interesting arm here. But we have proof of it not working all that well in a starting role, and even in a higher-octane relief role that allowed him to dial up the velocity, he still didn't miss many bats. I'm not writing Sasaki off, but like with Strider, I need affirmative reasons to be excited about him after how his 2025 season went, and I didn't really get anything from this debut. Let's see what the next few outings look like, but right now, Sasaki is not a target for me, even at his depressed price.

Andrew Painter wasn't terribly exciting

But he wasn't terrible, either. He just did not look like the generational pitching prospect he was supposed to be before injuries. Which is largely the reviews he garnered in his return from Tommy John surgery last season; Painter's prospect standing largely stagnated, but the scouting reports liked him better than a 5.26 ERA would make you think. But while the fastball velocity remains borderline elite (Painter averaged 96.8 mph in his spring debut Sunday), the shape and command seem to drag the overall grades for the pitch down.

That being said, Painter only threw 20 pitches in his first spring start, and 13 of them were four-seamers. This is a young pitcher with a legit six-pitch arsenal, and he didn't throw more than two of any of his other offerings, so we can't exactly say what the rest of it looked like. The focus here was on the four-seamer, and he'll likely expand the arsenal moving forward. If I thought he was going to be a 65% fastball guy, I'd be more concerned, but the rest of the arsenal deserves a chance to see what it can do against big-leaguers before we start to draw any conclusions, here.

Carlos Estevez's velocity is down 5 mph

On Friday, he gave up a couple of runs on two hits while averaging 81.1 mph with his slider, down 6.2 mph from where it was last season; Estevez did not throw a fastball in that outing, but it was down a similar amount in a previous outing. Estevez has dealt with diminished velocity in spring training during the past, including last year, and it ended up not being a problem ... but the thing is, he doesn't have a huge margin for error anyway. Sure, he had a 2.45 ERA last year and 42 saves, and if you believed in him for Fantasy, you reaped the benefits. But he also had a 3.69 xERA and just 7.4 K/9, a number that has dipped in consecutive seasons. For an extreme fly ball pitcher who doesn't miss many bats, the difference between getting the job done and getting the job taken away from you might not be big enough to be worth betting on when we're already seeing further diminished skills.

Mick Abel is a name to keep an eye on

Abell is pitching for a rotation spot in Minnesota, and the former first-rounder was dominant Sunday against the Braves, striking out six in three innings of work. His velocity was up 1-1.5 mph on his four-seamer and slider, which generated nine of his 10 swinging strikes on the day. He's up to 11 strikeouts to zero walks in six innings to open the spring and is coming off a 2.20 ERA with 10.4 K/9 as a 23-year-old in Triple-A, so this is definitely a name to watch with this hot start. You have to think he's pitched his way to the inside track for a rotation spot at this point, right?

Other Spring News and Notes

Zack Wheeler is at the beginning of his six-week ramp-up period. He is working his way back from Thoracic Outlet surgery, but could be in line for his debut at the end of that six-week period, which could put him in line to start the season around mid-April.
Pablo Lopez had the internal brace UCL repair surgery. The good news is that's the version of UCL reconstruction with a shorter return-to-play timetable, so we could see him in Spring Training next season. The bad news is, a full return to previous level of play seems like less of a guarantee than with traditional Tommy John surgery.
Shane McClanahan will debut Tuesday vs. the Phillies. I have no expectations after consecutive lost seasons due to Tommy John surgery and then other arm issues in 2025. But if he looks good, expect to see his price rise into the top 200 in drafts in March.
Merrill Kelly is dealing with a back injury that has his status for the start of the season in doubt, though the hope is he'll still be able to avoid the IL, even if his season is delayed a few days.
Justin Steele has been fully cleared and is aiming to return to the rotation in May/June from last year's internal brace procedure. He's a viable stash candidate, though it's fair to wonder how effective he'll be whenever he is cleared to return.
Cody Bellinger will miss a few days with a back injury, but he hopes to be back in the lineup mid-week, so hopefully it won't be a long-term issue.
Joe Ryan threw a bullpen session Saturday without issue. He's been sitting out with back inflammation, but could still be ready for Opening Day or shortly thereafter if he avoids any setbacks.
Bryce Miller has left side inflammation and will be shut down from throwing for 5 days. His velocity was up in his first spring start, so this one is annoying. He could be delayed for the start of the season, though this issue isn't enough to knock him down draft boards as a late-ish bounce-back candidate.
Rafael Devers has been shut down with a hamstring injury but should be back in a few days.
Kyle Stowers will miss 1-2 weeks with a mild right hamstring strain. There should still be time to be ready for Opening Day if he's on the shorter end of that timetable, but it's not great to miss that many spring reps when you are relatively unproven.
Yordan Alvarez will see time in the outfield this season and will make his spring debut Monday. The Astros are trying to avoid putting too much on his plate, given his history of injuries, but they also have a logjam in the infield, so being able to shift Alvarez to the field a few days a week would help.
Josh Lowe has a left oblique injury, different from the right oblique injuries that have been such an issue for him in recent years. He just can't catch a break.
Brenton Doyle has a sprained left wrist. It doesn't sound too serious at this point, but it's not a great sign for a guy who might already be fighting to avoid a platoon role.
Troy Melton (elbow strain) has been recommended rest and rehab and likely won't be ready for Opening Day.
Max Scherzer signed with the Blue Jays. Given concerns about Shane Bieber's availability, Scherzer very well could open the season in the rotation if he can get up to speed quickly enough. More likely, we see him a few weeks into the season.
Shane Bieber is still only throwing off flat ground from 120 feet, and there is no timetable for him to start throwing off a mound. Bieber has been slowed this spring due to forearm fatigue from the end of last season, and at this point, it's not actually clear if he is currently healthy. My expectations for him have cratered lately.
Josh Jung has a Grade 1 adductor strain and will be shut down for 10 days. He just cannot catch a break.
Trey Yesavage could be limited to 3-4 IP in early starts, but will be in the rotation and shouldn't be facing any kind of shutdown threat later on.
Jackson Holliday (and, presumably, Corbin Carroll and Francisco Lindor, though that's just assuming) will begin swinging a bat later this week as he recovers from hamate bone surgery in his hand. The Orioles have already announced Holliday will begin the season on the IL, while Lindor and Carroll are still publicly hoping to be ready by Opening Day.
Thomas White has a Grade 1 oblique strain, will miss the rest of the spring. There was perhaps an outside shot he might be able to pitch his way into Miami's rotation, but that's out of the window now. I'd still guess we see him sometime before the All-Star break, but the odds are certainly longer now.
The Royals signed Starling Marte. Marte was primarily a DH last season with the Mets, but he might be able to handle a part-time role in the outfield as the smaller side of a platoon with someone like Kyle Isbel or Isaac Collins. I'd be surprised if Marte played enough as a 37-year-old to be relevant for Fantasy.
Marlins prospect Aiva Arquette will be out 4-6 weeks after core muscle surgery. He was last year's No. 7 overall pick.
Jett Williams has been shut down for a few days with a left quad injury. He's fighting for a spot in the Brewers infield, but is probably a long shot, especially after this.
Dylan Crews was scratched from Sunday's lineup with left thumb soreness.