At this point of the season, you're surely aware that I've been a pretty big Reynaldo Lopez skeptic. And I think it's time to admit it was one of my worst takes of the season.
But, I want to be clear about one thing: It's mostly because Lopez has, rather improbably, become the best version of himself down the stretch after coming back from an elbow injury. He struck out 11 Rockies at home Thursday night, his second double-digit strikeout effort of the season – and both have come in his four starts since coming back from his injury.
Before the injury, Lopez was enjoying a tremendous season of course, with a 2.06 ERA that would have led the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. But his peripherals were significantly worse, with an xERA nearly two runs higher than his ERA while throwing significantly less than six innings per start and having his workload carefully monitored overall. It was a profile that looked superficially excellent, but was actually a lot less valuable than it appeared, and it made him one of the most obvious sell-high candidates in the league.
Only he went out and, somehow, got a lot better after his injury. This is pretty amazing, seeing as this is the first season Lopez has been a starter this late into the season since 2019. At a time when all logic would dictate Lopez would be running out of gas, he's actually seen a significant velocity bump (96 mph since coming back from the injury), while his slider is better than it has ever been, with a whiff rate over 50% over his past four starts.
It's not a stretch to say this is the best we've ever seen from Lopez. He has 34 strikeouts in 23 innings since coming back from the IL with just five walks and a 2.61 FIP to go with his 1.96 ERA in his past four starts, and while he still seems limited to pitch counts in the 90s, that's been enough for quality starts in three of his past four. With an upcoming schedule that looks to include the Nationals and Marlins in two of his final four starts, Lopez may very well end up putting a league-winning finish to his breakout season.
I can't say I saw it coming. Kudos to him for putting it all together here down the stretch run. Here's what else you need to know from Thursday's action around MLB:
Friday's waiver targets
Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (28%) – The thing about Wallner is, the flaws in his game are so obvious that he might just never be able to truly put it all together. But this is now two seasons in a row where he's just gotten absurdly hot in the second half, making the upside clear if he ever does figure it out. This season, Wallner has hit .299 with 10 homers in 45 games since being recalled from Triple-A on July 7, a near-40-homer pace, and he isn't really showing any signs of slowing down – he's even started 13 of his past 14 games. There's a 33% strikeout rate to go along with that, and that's right on the border of being too high to sustain viable Fantasy production even with Wallner's power. But he's locked in right now and is worth using down the stretch, especially with only one lefty projected on the schedule for next week.
Cody Bradford, SP, Rangers (60%) – Bradford's value for 2025 is going to be fascinating to discuss, because it sure looks like he's emerged as a viable starting option for Fantasy … except the sample size is going to be way too small to really say that with confidence. After limiting the Angels to just one run in six innings of work Thursday, he now has a 3.05 ERA for the season, with elite command, solid results on balls in play, and even a surprisingly decent 56 strikeouts in 62 innings of work. Add it all up, and he looks like a poor man's George Kirby. Whether he'll be able to sustain this success next season is an open question – and it's fair to wonder if he'll be able to sustain it against the Diamondbacks and their second-ranked offense vs. LHP in his next start. That's a tough one, though his next start would likely be against either the Blue Jays or Mariners, and I think I'd be willing to trust Bradford against either, so he's worth picking up even if you don't use him this week.
Ty France, 1B, Reds (20%) – Way back in spring, I thought France had some sleeper appeal, and maybe he just needed a change of scenery to live up to it. He was ultimately DFA'd by the Mariners, but has been a really solid addition to the Reds lineup since joining them, hitting .344 with four homers, 12 runs, and 12 RBI over his past 27 games – and he has started eight games after going deep Thursday. It's not ideal that the Reds are playing all seven of their games away from their excellent home park next week, but if you're looking for a CI in a deeper league, France could still be worth a look.
Rhett Lowder, SP, Reds (29%) – I wish I could be more excited about Lowder's first career quality start Thursday against the Astros. He limited them to just four hits over 6.1 shutout innings, which is pretty great … but it came with a less-great 1.26 ERA thanks to four walks, while he struck out just three in this one. He has walked eight over his first 10.1 innings of work, with nine strikeouts, and just hasn't quite looked like he's ready to be a difference-maker at the MLB level. On the other hand, with two starts on the schedule next week, against the Cardinals and Twins, I think he could be pretty useful, especially in H2H points leagues.
Martin Perez, SP, PIT (33%) – There have been some less-than-ideal showings recently, but on the whole, Perez has been pretty solid since joining the Padres, and he just limited the Tigers to five hits over 6.1 scoreless innings Thursday. He struck out five and walked just one, and now has a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over seven starts with the Padres. He isn't a must-start option, but as a SPARP against the Giants, I don't hate the idea of streaming him.
Jonny DeLuca, OF, Rays (3%) – DeLuca is starting to make a little bit of an impact for the Rays, hitting .321 with two homers and six steals over his past 15 games. I don't think there's likely to be much more than fringe power in this profile, but he hasn't struck out multiple times in a game since Aug. 10, a stretch of 18 starts, and that should help the batting average (and steals as a result) play up, making him a viable option in Roto leagues if you need that specific skill set.
