Well, that was interesting.
Week 1 was far from what we expected, with scoring (and Fantasy points) down across the board. We lost the consensus No.1 running back for at least half the year and saw a backup in Chicago look like a star. The top three quarterbacks were all outside of the top 13 in preseason ADP while Tom Brady didn't even manage a touchdown. It's going to be hard for Week 2 to top the craziness of Week 1. But I'd be fine with a return to normalcy.
As always, we start with Week 2 in a Tweet:
Deshaun Watson gets his first start. It can't get any worse... right?
The Bengals were shut out 20-0 by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, and they still find themselves nearly a touchdown favorite Thursday night against the Texans. That's what happens when you face a rookie quarterback at home on a short week.
The Texans are putting Watson in a very tough spot here behind a bad offensive line and without his top three tight ends, while nursing a (minor) knee injury. He did get his feet wet in Week 1, but that wasn't exactly pretty. Unless your name is DeAndre Hopkins.
Watson threw 23 passes in Week 1. He targeted Hopkins on 11 of them. Things may not be pretty on Thursday night for either offense but you shouldn't consider benching the star receivers. That means keep A.J. Green active too.
The Dolphins and Buccaneers are finally in action
Week 1 was pretty brutal for Mike Evans and Jay Ajayi owners. Zero points? Come on, fellas.
But it's all sunshine and rainbows from here. You could make the argument they are the two most valuable players in Fantasy with their byes already out of the way. While we feel certain about their value, there are questions on both teams that I'm looking forward to answering.
For the Dolphins, the entire passing game is a mystery. We don't know how good Jay Cutler is anymore. We don't know how often he'll throw, either and we don't know who Cutler will target most often when he does. Traveling across the country to face a talented Chargers' secondary provides an interesting test case. I'm being extra cautious in starting any Dolphin besides Ajayi.
In Tampa, I'm curious how much faith Dirk Koetter has in Jameis Winston. Winston was limited to 32 attempts per game in the final 12 games of 2016 after struggling with turnovers early in the year. If Koetter wants to stick with that run-heavy approach we're going to be underwhelmed by Winston's Fantasy output. At the same time, if Koetter cuts Winston loose he could be a top-five quarterback with his new weapons.
Surprising stars from Week 1 look for an encore
Tarik Cohen looked amazing. Javorius Allen saw 21 carries. Kenny Golladay was a top-three wide receiver. Austin Hooper was the No. 1 tight end. It's important to remember that it's just one week and if this one week happened out of the blue in Week 7 we'd be less likely to react to it. But that doesn't mean we should ignore it either.
Cohen does look amazing in his role and the team is hemorrhaging wide receivers. He doesn't have the size to be a feature back if Jordan Howard were to get hurt but he could produce like Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles if he continues to get volume. That makes him much more valuable in PPR than he is in standard.
Allen gets a huge volume opportunity with Danny Woodhead hurt and should be in the No. 3 running back discussion most weeks. Historically the Ravens have thrown the ball to their running backs a ton and Allen should be the main beneficiary. He's also just a Terrance West injury away from a feature role.
Golladay was a stud against Arizona. He scored once from 45 yards out and caught his only red zone target for another score. I still see him as No. 4 Fantasy receiver, but his presence is really helping Golden Tate:
Finally, I wouldn't get too excited about Austin Hooper yet. He had two targets. In the whole game. I'd rather stream Charles Clay or Zach Miller in Week 2.
Potential shootouts offer flex appeal
Tom Brady and Drew Brees were not themselves in Week 1 but that should change when they go head to head in the Superdome Sunday. These defenses were carved up by Alex Smith and Sam Bradford last week and this will be a high-scoring game according to Las Vegas. The over/under is tied for the highest of the week at 53.5
With that many points I'm fine with taking a shot on guys like James White, Chris Hogan and Ted Ginn in your flex position if you don't have a better option. If you're really desperate, Coby Fleener, Philip Dorsett and Brandon Coleman have a better chance of scoring this week than they normally do, too.
The other game with a total over 50 is on Sunday night between the Packers and Falcons. I already said I'm not thrilled about starting Hooper at tight end, but he's not a terrible desperation flex. I'd rather start Mohamed Sanu (nine targets in Week 1) or Randall Cobb (13). Ty Montgomery isn't just a flex option, he's Jamey Eisenberg's start of the week.
You don't want to gamble on last week's top quarterbacks
Smith and Bradford took advantage of good matchups, but Matthew Stafford was an even bigger surprise, carving up Arizona's talented defense. Personally, I don't want to start any of these guys against more difficult matchups in Week 2. But that doesn't mean I'm ignoring them either.
Bradford in particular is really interesting to me as he has arguably his best set of weapons ever. The Vikings wisely moved Stefon Diggs outside and are playing Adam Thielen in the slot more, which takes advantage of both of their strengths. They also have Dalvin Cook out of the backfield and an above average tight end in Kyle Rudolph. If they repeat their Week 1 performance, I'm buying in to the Vikings offense.
Stafford is still my favorite of these three quarterbacks for the longterm, but he has the worst matchup on Monday Night against the Giants. I'd start Carson Palmer, Carson Wentz and Bradford over him this week.
Next man up in Arizona
With David Jonson sidelined for the foreseeable future, there should be a clamoring for the next man up right? Well, his name is Kerwynn Williams. We think.
The Cardinals brought back Chris Johnson and signed D.J. Foster off the Patriots practice squad. Still, Bruce Arians has said that Williams is the starting running back.
Williams is a former seventh round pick with 103 career carries (and six receptions) in five years in the league. I wouldn't get too excited projecting season-long upside onto him, especially since we largely expect this to be a committee effort in Arizona. But in Week 2 against the Colts he is worth a start as a flex with serious upside.
The Raiders get a free pass
You'll want to start all of your Raiders this week against the hapless Jets. Yes, that includes their defense and kicker, Giorgio Tavecchio. The Jets looked like every bit the disaster we thought they were in a Week 1 loss to Buffalo. Marshawn Lynch, who I panned all summer, is a borderline No. 1 back in my rankings (and the No. 1 back in Jamey Eisenberg's) and Jared Cook is a quality streaming option at tight end.
Five player who need a better Week 2 or I'll get nervous
You don't want to overreact to one week of football, but two duds in a row can certainly make you nervous. I'm not there yet but I'm closer than expected with Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Miller, Ameer Abdullah and Tyler Eifert.
- Palmer was my favorite option to pair with Andrew Luck because of his easy schedule to start the season. I'm sticking with him this week against the Colts, but if he's bad against them I'll have a hard time starting him again. He's at the age where words like "washed" and "done" are being tossed around. This is an excellent opportunity to stave off those doubts.
- Cousins struggled mightily against the Eagles and now travels across the country to take on a Rams defense that took advantage of a great matchup in Week 1. He looked lost without Sean McVay and now he'll face his mentor. Another dud this week and he may just be a streamer.
- Lamar Miller and Ameer Abdullah were both horribly inefficient in Week 1 against what looked like difficult matchups. I'm not sure things get better for Abdullah against the Giants but I would at least like to see more usage in the red zone or more success in the passing game. Miller gets a Bengals defense on Thursday night without Vontaze Burfict. He needs to make something happen in a much better matchup.
- Finally, Tyler Eifert didn't get targets or success in Week 1 against the Ravens. The Bengals offensive line looks absolutely awful and I do have some concern that it drags the whole team down. They get quite the test on Thursday night against the Texans.
Five more I'm already benching, but may drop if they repeat Week 1
Call this confirmation bias if you like, but I am getting more concerned about these five players.
- A lot was made about Marcus Mariota's disappointing opener, but he was really just disappointing when throwing to Eric Decker. If that trend keeps up, Decker will stop seeing targets. He already looks like the fourth best option on a run-first team.
- Brandon Marshall and Adrian Peterson were two of my favorite busts coming into the year, and they did nothing in Week 1 to change my mind. I worry both about their future usage and their temperament if it dives like I expect.
- I can't say I was worried about Paul Perkins coming into the year. In fact, it was the opposite. I thought he was a huge value. But the Giants offensive line looks even worse than last year. If they get blown up by the Lions on Monday night I may have to give up on Perkins.
- Then there's Hunter Henry. Or should I say Ladarius Green? I joked this summer about Antonio Gates holding off Henry like he did Green, but it was just a joke. I have no idea why Gates played more in Week 1. But if that continues you shouldn't expect Henry to match his unsustainable touchdown rate from 2016.
Another game-time decision for Odell Beckham?
There is more optimism this week that Beckham will play in Week 2, but unless he gets a full practice in you may still have a headache on your hands. That's because Beckham plays on Monday night, so you may not have a definitive answer on him when you have to set your lineup. If you can put him at the flex position I like both Sterling Shepard and Shane Vereen as late-swap choices.
Most importantly, keep an eye on reports about Beckham over the weekend. If they remain as positive as they've been so far this week his upside is worth the risk over all but a handful of wide receivers.