Prior to Friday's news that the NFL will not suspend Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, his Average Draft Position on CBS Sports was the No. 43 player off the board. He was being drafted as the No. 16 receiver.
Clearly, that's about to change.
Hill will now see his ADP skyrocket into the Round 1 range, regardless of format. He's worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2 in all leagues, and he's a No. 1 Fantasy receiver for 2019.
As for the rest of the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes was already being drafted as the No. 1 quarterback, but he's going at No. 11 overall. That's too soon for any quarterback, but Mahomes is locked into the top spot at his position now that Hill won't face any discipline. Still, don't reach for Mahomes on Draft Day, because quarterback is deep and loaded with talent.
Travis Kelce was already the No. 1 tight end, and Hill's status shouldn't change that. Kelce is worth drafting in Round 2 in all leagues, and he's the No. 16 player off the board based on ADP.
The biggest impact will likely be for Sammy Watkins, who had an ADP as the No. 61 overall player and the No. 21 receiver. He would have seen a potential boost in production if Hill were suspended, but now Watkins will slide over to the No. 2 receiver role for Kansas City and be, at best, No. 4 in terms of touches behind Damien Williams, Hill and Kelce.
Watkins is still worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but you should plan to target him in Round 7 now. And for re-draft leagues, receivers Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are not worth selecting. Hardman is only worth a second-round pick in rookie-only drafts.
As for the Kansas City running backs, Williams has an ADP of the No. 24 player off the board as the No. 14 running back. I'd prefer to get him in Round 3, but he has plenty of upside to justify his ADP.
Carlos Hyde's ADP is the No. 92 player off the board as the No. 34 running back, which is too early. Hyde would benefit if Williams got hurt, but he's being drafted ahead of guys like Darrell Henderson, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones and Royce Freeman, among others, which is a mistake. Darwin Thompson's ADP is at No. 148 overall as the No. 52 running back. I like getting Thompson at that spot.
This is our first look at the CBS Sports ADP, and we'll be breaking it down every week leading up to the season. Using ADP is a great guide for your Draft Day, so I encourage you to study it as much as possible to help get an edge on the rest of your league.
The more you know the trends of when players are going in what rounds, the more prepared you'll be for 2019.
Quarterback
Good value
ADP: No. 13 QB at 81.6
I consider Winston a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this season, and I like him better than several guys being drafted ahead of him, including Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Last year, the Buccaneers quarterback combo of Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined for 5,358 yards, 36 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. It's a different system under new coach Bruce Arians, and Arians should do good things for Winston. Let Winston fall into your lap as a starter, and you'll be happy about it in 2019.
ADP: No. 16 QB at 95.8
Like Winston, I consider Murray a starting Fantasy quarterback this season, even as a rookie. And like Winston, I would rather have Murray than Goff, Roethlisberger, Brees and Wilson. That might be aggressive since he's never taken a NFL snap, while also being undersized at 5-foot-10, 207 pounds. But I expect him to thrive in coach Kliff Kingsbury's system, and I'm excited to wait for Murray on Draft Day given his upside.
ADP: No. 23 QB at 123.9
Garoppolo shouldn't be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback. But he shouldn't be No. 23 at the position either. We haven't seen Garoppolo play 16 games in a season yet, but I love his potential playing for Kyle Shanahan. We saw last year that Shanahan could make things work with Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens, with that trio combining for nine games with at least 20 Fantasy points. I expect Garoppolo to do better than that if he plays 16 games, and he's one of the first No. 2 quarterbacks I look for with a late-round pick.
Bad value
ADP: No. 8 QB at 71.3
Roethlisberger was the No. 3 Fantasy quarterback in 2018 in leagues with six points for passing touchdowns, so some people might think getting him at No. 8 is a steal. But as we all know, he lost Antonio Brown this offseason, production (104 catches, 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2018) that will be tough to replace. As much as I like James Washington, Donte Moncrief and Diontae Johnson as complementary options to JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner and Vance McDonald, Brown's absence will be felt in a big way. It drops Roethlisberger into the No. 2 quarterback range, and he shouldn't be drafted this high.
ADP: No. 14 QB at 87.3
Like Roethlisberger, Brady has lost a key weapon with Rob Gronkowski's retirement. And while Gronkowski was a shell of himself in 2018 (47 catches, 682 yards and three touchdowns), his absence will be felt in this offense. Brady also could be without Josh Gordon (suspension) for a full season, and New England lost Chris Hogan in free agency to Carolina. We'll see what N'Keal Harry offers as a first-round pick in the NFL Draft, but Brady struggled as a Fantasy quarterback in 2018. We don't want to write him off too soon, even at 42, but he's not someone I would consider as a top-15 Fantasy quarterback this year.
ADP: No. 15 QB at 92.6
I'm all for considering Darnold a sleeper this year, but he's not someone I would draft as a top-15 Fantasy quarterback. I'd rather gamble on Murray, Garoppolo, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Kirk Cousins, all of whom are being drafted after Darnold. Darnold showed flashes of being a quality Fantasy option as a rookie in 2018 with at least 21 Fantasy points in four of his final nine games, so he could surprise us in his first year with Adam Gase. But he still has plenty to prove, and he's not worth drafting in the first 100 overall picks.
Running back
Good value
ADP: No. 20 RB at 40.9
Johnson was one of my favorite sleepers last year, and he played well prior to hurting his knee in Week 11. This year, with new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, Johnson should be the focal point of the Lions offense. One report out of Detroit predicts at least 60 catches for Johnson, which isn't crazy since he had 32 in 10 games last year and started the season in a limited role. I consider Johnson more of a top-15 running back worth drafting in Round 3, so I would love to get him this late if possible.
ADP: No. 24 RB at 56.8
It might seem risky to draft Freeman earlier than this, but you could be missing out on a potential star if you don't target him higher — think Round 3 as a top 15 running back. Freeman has struggled with injuries the past two seasons, only playing two games last year. But with Tevin Coleman gone and only Ito Smith and fifth-round rookie Qadree Ollison for competition, the Falcons seem confident in Freeman being ready to go. Atlanta upgraded the offensive line this offseason, and Freeman just needs to stay healthy to get back on track as a standout Fantasy option. His ADP is amazing if it stays in this range.
ADP: No. 27 RB at 62.2
I get it, no one wants anyone from the Dolphins. The team could be awful, and Drake was a letdown last year by some standards since he was stuck in a timeshare with Frank Gore. But Gore is gone now, and so is Adam Gase. Drake should see a boost in total touches from the 173 (120 carries and 53 catches) he had in 2018, and I consider him a No. 2 running back in all formats, especially PPR. If you can manage to get him this late in any leagues, consider yourself lucky.
ADP: No. 40 RB at 97.9
I'm excited about Penny for his sophomore campaign in 2019, and I like him even better than Chris Carson (No. 22 running back at 50.1 ADP) based on their draft value. Things are looking good for Penny, who is in better shape than last season and should have a better understanding of the playbook. Carson is also battling a knee injury this offseason, and Penny could have a head start at the start of training camp. While Carson may still hold onto the starting job to open the year, don't be surprised if Penny steals it by the end of the season. He's an unbelievable steal at this price tag.
ADP: No. 54 at 126.6
I'm fine with Mark Ingram as the No. 23 running back off the board with an ADP of 51.8, but I'm also looking at Hill with his price tag. The Ravens are going to be a run-heavy team with Lamar Jackson under center, and Hill should be the complement to Ingram this year. Should Ingram get hurt or miss any time, Hill could be a standout Fantasy option in his rookie campaign. He's someone to target in all leagues with a late-round pick.
Bad value
ADP: No. 6 RB at 8.5
I have Bell ranked as a No. 1 running back, but I want him in Round 2 and not Round 1. And definitely not at No. 6 overall. He should be good if healthy for 16 games, but don't expect him to be as productive with the Jets like he was with the Steelers. Everything around him is an expected downgrade — coaching, quarterback, offensive line, receivers — and that should impact Bell's production. There's no reason to reach for Bell, who also could have lost a step after sitting out the season because of his contract.
ADP: No. 10 RB at 20.0
The time to consider drafting Gurley is the end of Round 2, and I don't consider him a top-10 running back now given the uncertainty of his knee. I hope he's fine and plays 16 games with no limitations, but the Rams are planning to lower his workload, especially with the addition of rookie Darrell Henderson. If there's one player I'd like to see outdo his ADP, it's Gurley, but he's still a risk for 2019 if his knee is a problem like it was to close 2018.
ADP: No. 19 RB at 36.2
Lindsay was amazing last year coming out of nowhere as an undrafted rookie free agent to be a standout Fantasy option, but I don't want him in Round 3. Royce Freeman is expected to have a bigger role, and Lindsay's production will come down. It's a good sign he was on the field for the start of training camp after hurting his wrist last season, but you might want to pass on him and take Freeman at his price tag as the No. 46 running back with an ADP of 115.3 instead.
ADP: No. 21 RB at 47.4 ADP
I hope Michel is healthy for the start of training camp, but his knees were a problem yet again this offseason, forcing him to miss team activities. He also got competition for touches with the addition of rookie Damien Harris, who might be the Patriots running back to target. Harris is the No. 50 running back off the board with an ADP of 120.7. And let's not forget about James White in the passing game, and White is the No. 30 runnning back with an ADP of 77.2. If Michel is healthy, he should be the No. 1 running back for the Patriots, but he's not involved in the passing game after just seven catches as a rookie in 2018. I'm not drafting Michel if he stays in the Round 4 range.
ADP: No. 36 RB at 96.8 ADP
It's going to be interesting to see what the Browns do at running back with Hunt and Nick Chubb once Hunt is back on the field, but keep in mind he's out until Week 10 because of his suspension. It's hard to justify drafting someone in the first 100 picks who will be out for more than half the season. Now, Hunt could pay big dividends depending on his role, but you should hopefully be able to draft him later than his current ADP.
Wide receiver
Good value
ADP: No. 23 WR at 66.9
Golladay's ADP was one of the bigger surprises on this list, as we usually see him go in Round 4 or 5 in most of our mock drafts. I expect that to the norm for Golladay in most drafts as we get closer to the season, but if you can get him in Round 6, do cartwheels. Golladay has the potential to be a top-10 Fantasy receiver in his third year in the NFL.
ADP: No. 26 WR at 73.7
With Doug Baldwin retired, there's a big ceiling for Lockett this year after he was the No. 16 PPR receiver in 2018. He only had 71 targets last year, but he still managed 57 catches for 965 yards and 10 touchdowns. If he gets close to 100 targets this season, he could easily finish in the top 10. I don't expect to see Lockett stay in this range as we get closer to the season.
ADP: No. 30 WR at 82.3
Boyd was a third-year surprise in 2018 when he scored at least 11 PPR points in nine of the 14 games he played, and he will hopefully build on that performance this season. The Bengals have a new coach this year in Zac Taylor, and he should continue to develop Boyd as the Robin to A.J. Green's Batman. But as we saw last year, that even if Green gets hurt and has to miss time, Boyd can still be a standout Fantasy receiver. He's someone to consider in Round 5 in all formats.
ADP: No. 31 WR at 86.1
I would love to get Moore at this point in the draft, but I expect his ADP to rise. I'm also aggressively targeting Curtis Samuel in all leagues with his ADP at 113.5 as the No. 42 receiver off the board. Both should be the top wide receivers for Cam Newton, whose shoulder is fine for the start of training camp. Moore has the higher ceiling than Samuel, but Samuel might be the better value since you can get him later on Draft Day.
ADP: No. 52 WR at 124.8
We know the storyline by now with Brown gone, and Washington is competing for the starting spot opposite Smith-Schuster with Moncrief and Diontae Johnson. Washington has the higher ceiling, but I'm also going after Moncrief (No. 55 receiver with an ADP of 126.3) as well. They are both amazing values given their potential roles in this offense.
ADP: No. 56 WR at 126.7
The Texans are hoping Coutee and Will Fuller stay healthy this season. Especially Coute, who was limited to six games last year with an injured hamstring. He will likely be the slot receiver in between Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, and Coutee had three games with at least 12 PPR points in his limited appearances as a rookie in 2018. Coutee is one of several great values you can find at receiver in this range.
ADP: No. 57 WR at 127.0
Miller might prove to be a better value pick than Allen Robinson, who is the No. 35 receiver off the board with an ADP at 102.7. Last year as a rookie, Miller led the Bears with seven receiving touchdowns, and he played through a shoulder injury for most of the year. He's expected to be healthy now, and I target him in every league with a late-round pick given his upside.
ADP: No. 58 WR at 128.1
The Broncos receivers all have an ADP after No. 100 overall, with Courtland Sutton at 115.5 and Emmanuel Sanders at 134.4. We'll see how Sanders does in his recovery from last year's Achilles injury, and it's a good sign that he avoided the PUP list to open training camp. I like Sutton and Hamilton the best, with Hamilton a great value pick in this spot in the draft.
ADP: No. 61 WR at 131.2
We'll see who ends up as the second-best Fantasy receiver for the Packers this season behind Davante Adams between Geronimo Allison and Valdes-Scantling, and it might be better to wait for MVS with the later ADP. Allison is also at a good price as the No. 38 receiver off the board with an ADP of 105.1, but you can see where the better value pick is. Both had good moments in 2018, but we'll see how they do when they're sharing the field together in prominent roles, with Allison likely manning the slot.
ADP: No. 64 WR at 140.1
Isabella is one of my favorite rookies this season, and he's also one of my favorite late-round targets. I'm all in on the Cardinals this year, and I'm also drafting Christian Kirk at his ADP as the No. 32 receiver at 95.4. Larry Fitzgerald might be going too soon as the No. 43 receiver at 111.7 ADP, but this offense has the chance to be explosive. And Isabella is a great sleeper to target with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Bad value
ADP: No. 9 WR at 31.5
Thielen was awesome last year, but he struggled once Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator for the final three games, which is worth noting. With Stefanski and Gary Kubiak now calling plays, the Vikings want to be more dependent on the run. Thielen should still be good, but I'm hesitant to call him a top-10 Fantasy receiver, especially in non-PPR leagues. I'd much rather have Stefon Diggs, who is the No. 14 receiver off the board with an ADP of 41.1.
ADP: No. 24 WR at 70.1
Landry might eventually fall to a spot where he's good value, but this is not it. I get it, we all want pieces of the Browns offense this season, but you shouldn't pay this price for Landry. He's going to lose targets with Odell Beckham now in Cleveland, and Landry struggled once Freddie Kitchens started calling plays last year. If you can get Landry as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver then that's good value, but he should not be considered a top 24 option on Draft Day.
ADP: No. 45 WR at 117.8
This ADP is puzzling because Thomas might not even be ready for the start of the season coming off last year's Achilles injury. In fact, several Patriots receivers have an ADP that's hard to justify, including Josh Gordon and N'Keal Harry. Gordon is the No. 48 receiver with an ADP at 121.4, and Harry is the No. 50 receiver at 122.3. I don't mind Harry as much, but he still has to prove that he can be in a prominent role for Brady as a rookie. But until Gordon is reinstated from his suspension, you could be wasting a pick in Round 11 on someone who isn't guaranteed to play.
ADP: No. 49 WR at 122.0
Brown still hasn't healed from the foot injury he's been dealing with since February, and it could take him a while before he's helping Fantasy managers this year — he'll open training camp on the Non-football Injury List. We hope he's ready for Week 1, but we don't know what his rapport will be with Lamar Jackson, as well as his understanding of the offense. If his ADP starts to fall because of his absence in training camp then that should be a good thing, but I'm not drafting him, even at this spot, because of his injury.
ADP: No. 51 WR at 123.8
Lee and Brown have a lot in common. Both could be the No. 1 receiver on their respective team. Both are talented but dealing with injuries. Lee doesn't have the same upside as Brown, but it would be great to see Lee healthy after missing all of last season with a knee injury. He's not expected to be ready for the start of training camp, which is frustrating. And with his health in doubt, he's a risky pick, even at this point in the draft.
Tight end
Good value
ADP: No. 6 TE at 67.7
Engram is one of my favorite breakout candidates this year, and I expect him to benefit the most with Odell Beckham gone from the Giants. Beckham has missed 16 games over the past two seasons due to injury, and Engram has scored at least 15 PPR points in nine of those outings. While things will change with Golden Tate joining the roster as Beckham's replacement, I still expect Engram to be the best receiving option for the Giants. He's my No. 4 tight end on Draft Day, and I would take him as early as Round 4.
ADP: No. 19 TE at 132.3
McDonald had a career season in 2018 in targets (72), catches (50) and yards (610), and he tied his career high in touchdowns (four). But he should exceed all those numbers in a big way in 2019. The Steelers have to replace a lot of production from last year with Brown (168 targets for 104 catches, 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns) and Jesse James (39 targets for 30 catches, 423 yards and two touchdowns) gone. That's a combined 207 targets for 134 catches, 1,720 yards and 17 touchdowns. Washington, Moncrief and Johnson will help fill that void, along with Smith-Schuster and Conner. But McDonald has the chance to be a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, so getting him in this spot would be a tremendous steal.
ADP: No. 21 TE at 142.4
The Ravens receiving corps will look different this season with rookies Brown and Miles Boykin joining the team. Willie Snead and Chris Moore are expected to also play prominent roles, but I expect Lamar Jackson to lean on Andrews quite a bit. They seemed to develop a quality rapport toward the end of last season, and Andrews scored 25 PPR points in his final two games of the regular season. He also led the team in targets in Baltimore's Wild Card loss to the Chargers with seven. He has No. 1 tight end potential, and I would love to wait for him on Draft Day if I was guaranteed to get him this late.
Bad value
ADP: No. 5 TE at 63.4
Never chase last year's production, and that's what you would be doing if you selected Ebron as a top-five tight end. His ADP isn't awful in Round 6, but I'd rather have Engram, Hunter Henry and Jared Cook over Ebron this season. He was amazing last year finishing as the No. 4 Fantasy tight end, scoring 14 total touchdowns, but he's expected to have plenty of additional competition for targets this season. Jack Doyle (hip/kidney) should be healthy by Week 1, and the Colts added free agent Devin Funchess and rookie Parris Campbell to join T.Y. Hilton. It's OK to draft Ebron as a starting tight end, but he should be closer to the No. 10 option than No. 5 on Draft Day.
ADP: No. 10 TE at 101.9
I'm not expecting Hockenson to be a top 10 Fantasy tight end this season, and neither should you. It's rare that we get a rookie tight end to finish as a No. 1 Fantasy option, and it's only happened once in the past five seasons when Engram did it in 2017. Matthew Stafford struggled to maximize Ebron's potential for the first four years of his career in Detroit — he only scored 11 times over that span compared to 14 in 2018 with the Colts alone — and the Lions want to be a run-first team under Bevell. I'm fine speculating on Hockenson as a high-end No. 2 Fantasy tight end, but not at this cost.
ADP: No. 11 TE at 108.6
I expect Herndon's ADP to fall now that he's been suspensed for the first four games of the season, which is unfortunate because I had high expectations for him. Now, missing a quarter of the year, it's hard to justify selecting him at all in any redraft leagues that are 15 or 16 rounds. Making matters worse is the Jets have a bye in Week 4, so the earliest you can use Herndon is Week 6. He's appealing the suspension, which could change his outlook if there's a reduction of the four games, but for now don't plan to draft Herndon in this spot — if you draft him at all.
So which Fantasy Football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which RB2 can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Andrew Luck's huge season, and find out.
