The second installment of this preseason's regression series focuses on the quarterbacks, and it runs the risk of being controversial. That's because Patrick Mahomes completed his first season as a starter in the NFL and quite simply looked like one of the best quarterbacks ever. No one wants to hear that wasn't real. I'm not going to say it wasn't real, but I'm more than happy to tell you it wasn't sustainable. The only other question is how much it matters.
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Let's get this out of the way right off the bat. Mahomes averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt in 2018 and posted a touchdown rate of 8.6%. Unless he's changing the game of football, neither of those numbers are sustainable.
We don't have a career norm to look at with Mahomes, but we can just use some of the best current quarterbacks in football. Aaron Rodgers has a career 7.8 Y/A and 6.2% touchdown rate. Tom Brady is at 7.5 and 5.5%. Drew Brees is at 7.6 and 5.3% (more on him later).
Even people who want to argue Mahomes is the best ever should agree he won't be that much better than Rodgers, Brees and Brady have been over their careers. If you just wanted to use round numbers (8.0 Y.A, 6% touchdown rate) you'd chop 457 passing yards and 15 passing touchdowns off the numbers from last year. That sounds like way too much, right? It's not.
In fact, it's pretty close to what I've done. And you know what? In leagues that reward six points per passing touchdowns Mahomes is still my top projected quarterback. So does any of this even matter? Absolutely.
Mahomes has a first round ADP in CBS drafts so far this season. Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson are available in the fourth round. There is no reason to take Mahomes in the first round or three rounds before the other elite quarterbacks.
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Russell Wilson has always been a remarkably efficient quarterback. He is second in the NFL in Y/A since he entered the league in 2012 and third in touchdown rate. Even so, his 2018 stands out as unsustainable. Wilson's touchdown rate ballooned to 8.2% and his 8.1 Y/A was his highest since 2015.
If you just regress Wilson back to his career averages, he throws for 3,373 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2018. While you could make the argument that Wilson's pass attempts will come up, I'm also a little bit worried about his weapons, which rank in the bottom third of the league.
Wilson is a fine late-round quarterback option, but unfortunately his ADP doesn't allow you to wait that long. You should pass on him in almost all drafts.
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Like Wilson, Brees has seen his pass attempts dwindle the past few seasons and like Wilson, I don't really expect that will change in 2019. I could make the same arguments I've made about Mahomes and Wilson, with Brees' 2018 Y/A (8.2) and touchdown rate (6.5%) being uncharacteristically and unsustainably high. But Brees has another fun quirk -- he ran for four touchdowns last year as well.
Going into last season, Brees had 14 rushing touchdowns in 12 seasons in New Orleans. In more than half of those seasons he scored zero or once on the ground. Brees' passing numbers will regress, but he'll also lose 12 to 18 points off his rushing production. There's no way he should be drafted like a top-eight quarterback.
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OK, I know most of you are smarter than this. But just to be sure. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson or even O.J. Howard on this year's Dolphins' team. He's definitely not going to average 9.6 Y/A or post a 6.9% touchdown rate. I don't expect him to start 16 games for the Dolphins, and I'm not sure you'll be all that happy with him as a starter in your two-quarterback league.
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As I wrote in the running backs piece, regression doesn't have to be negative. And while there's plenty of reason to speculate that a new system could help Rodgers, I'd expect at the very least regression will. His 2018 touchdown rate (4.2%) was a full two points worse than his career average. That was the difference in 12(!) touchdowns last year. Rodgers has some bust potential, but it also shouldn't be surprising at all to see him bounce back to elite production.
Others to watch: Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan both have some regression concern in terms of volume, if not efficiency. Roethlisberger set a career-high with 675 attempts in 2018, and Ryan was back over 600 after two years of lower attempts. I definitely feel more confident saying Roethlisberger will see his attempts go down, but I still feel like Roethlisberger will throw more than Ryan. The weird thing is, Roethlisberger's ADP has fallen much further from their 2018 numbers. He's actually a value right now, while Ryan is someone I'd pass on.
I'm not sure how much you can take from what Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson did as passers last year. Neither was very good, but rookie quarterbacks generally aren't. They both had a touchdown rate below four percent, which I'd definitely expect to improve. Allen's improvement may be canceled out by less rush volume and efficiency.
So what Fantasy Football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which RB2 can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get 2019 Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Andrew Luck's huge season, and find out.
