Whether you want to trust the experts and wait on quarterback or reach for an elite player early, you've got plenty of choices to fill the position in 2019. Perhaps more than ever before.
The average NFL team in 2018 threw the ball 552.2 times, down just a bit from the 2015-16 period when the average was 571.8, but the distribution is a bit more even now. In 2015, 18 teams threw more than than league average, but the separation between the No. 10 team in attempts and No. 23 was 91 attempts; in 2018, the difference was just 64, and 15 teams were within two attempts per game of the average.
What that means is, the landscape is flatter than ever before. Nineteen quarterbacks averaged at least 20 Fantasy points per game in 2018 (min. eight games played), with only three above 25.0. Patrick Mahomes, of course, towered over the competition at 32.2, but pretty much everyone else was bunched up, as the No. 11 QB (Aaron Rodgers) only outscored No. 19 by 1.8 points per game.
So, you should probably reach for Mahomes, or wait until the last round, right? There's an argument to be made that this is the way to go, especially if you think Mahomes' chances of regression are relatively slim. He might be the lone true difference-maker at a position that is easy to fill all the way through the end of the draft.
Of course, we know most of you won't wait until the end of the draft to take a quarterback. As much as we stress waiting on QB, there is always a significant gap between expert drafts and Average Draft Position data. For instance, in one draft we did this week, here's how the quarterbacks taken compare to ADP:
- Patrick Mahomes – 19 vs. 9
- Deshaun Watson – 58 vs. 46
- Aaron Rodgers – 74 vs. 41
- Andrew Luck – 84 vs. 42
- Carson Wentz – 116 vs. 76
- Matt Ryan – 120 vs. 56
- Kyler Murray – 121 vs. 98
- Baker Mayfield – 123 vs. 55
- Jameis Winston – 127 vs. 99
- Jared Goff – 128 vs. 74
- Cam Newton – 131 vs. 77
- Russell Wilson – 141 vs. 86
- Lamar Jackson – 157 vs. 148
- Drew Brees – 162 vs. 72
- Tom Brady – 163 vs. 97
- Ben Roethlisberger – 165 vs. 82
You're just never going to be able to get values like that in your actual league. And, in fact, you'll probably see more than four teams take a backup in your home league, meaning the end-of-draft pickings will be even slimmer.
You know your league, and you know how people tend to draft in it, but chances are you'll have to be a bit more aggressive with QB than we might typically suggest. The good news is that even then you should be able to find someone in the 10th round range who will fill the position just fine.
The one thing to keep in mind about quarterback in 2019 is: Don't Panic. There's always another good quarterback around the corner.
We'll be focusing on the quarterback position over the next few days here at CBS Fantasy, as we get you ready for your 2019 drafts. We'll have sleepers, breakouts and bust picks from our experts, as well as in-depth looks at Mahomes' chances for a repeat, the best quarterbacks to stream, and more. To kick things off, here's a six-pack of questions from our six Fantasy analysts on the state of the quarterback position heading into 2019.
Here's who will be answering those questions:
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Dave Richard, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Heath Cummings, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Adam Aizer, Fantasy Football Today host
- Ben Gretch, CBS Fantasy Editor
- Chris Towers, CBS Fantasy Senior Editor
1) How many quarterbacks do you feel comfortable with as your starter?
- Jamey Eisenberg: This may sound like a cop out, but I can make a case for 25 quarterbacks I would be OK starting this year, including guys like Sam Darnold, Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford. That's not ideal, and you don't want to wait that long to draft a starter. But with a stacked roster, you can manage.
- Dave Richard: I started the offseason at like 22, then whittled it down to 19, and now I'm at 16. If you agree that there are (at least) 16 quarterbacks who can start for your team this year, then you can take a lax approach to drafting them this summer.
- Heath Cummings: It depends on how you define 'comfortable,' but right around 19. There's only a 14-point difference between QB9 and QB18 in my projections.
- Adam Aizer: There are 22 quarterbacks I'm comfortable starting, but if I don't get a top-seven QB, I'll definitely be drafting two quarterbacks and playing the matchups.
- Ben Gretch: I'm fine with guys like Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota in some formats, but if we're going to stick to "comfortable," there are still 21 above that tier in my ranks. It's crazy deep.
- Chris Towers: Looking at ADP, I can probably get to Derek Carr as the 23rd QB off the board before I feel really bad about my options. That's 23 quarterbacks who have legitimate top-12 upside in my eyes.
2) What is the earliest you would take a QB in a standard league?
- Jamey: I'm probably the wrong guy to ask because I would wait until Round 6, but that's only if the top four guys of Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Andrew Luck fell there.
- Dave: I'd have a hard time passing up Patrick Mahomes in Round 4.
- Heath: In non-PPR, I could see taking Mahomes at the end of the 3rd round. In PPR that's probably early 4th round.
- Adam: I'd take Patrick Mahomes in Round 4 or 5, right around the time Kenny Golladay comes off the board. There is not enough separation between him and the other elite QBs to justify an early pick.
- Ben: It depends. A lesson learned from Mahomes' breakout last year is that even though quarterback is deep, it's OK to pay up a bit for priority upside targets in the middle rounds. I'm OK taking a Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray in the seventh or eighth, and I've even taken Mahomes himself in some expert mocks when he's fallen to the fifth, but that's an unlikely event in most leagues.
- Chris: I'm starting to think the Fantasy industry has kind of jumped the shark on waiting on QB. Yes, you can get a decent option with top-12 upside late, but when we're letting Deshaun Watson fall into the fourth or fifth round, we're just overthinking him. In a Zero RB build, I'm fine with Mahomes in the third or Watson in the fourth.
3) How does a two-QB league change your draft strategy?
- Jamey: In this format, I'd be more inclined to draft a quarterback in the first four rounds, but that's only if it's 6 points for passing touchdowns.
- Dave: I'm looking for differentiators at quarterback in a two-QB league, but not as an exorbitant cost. You might consider Mahomes in Round 1 or Aaron Rodgers in Round 2, but I'm looking for a little better values a round or two later. I'd prefer to get in (or start) a quarterback run and then find two more arms before the end of Round 8.
- Heath: I might actually consider Mahomes late in the first, depending on the scoring. I'd also consider Deshaun Watson in the second. If I don't get one of those guys, I'm probably doing my best to get two of my top 19 without reaching.
- Adam: You have to take advantage of position depth in two-QB leagues. I like to get two top 12-15 QBs, but rarely do I take a top-five guy. I'll load up at other positions (especially if it's a PPR league) and still end up with good-to-great QBs like Jameis Winston and Jared Goff.
- Ben: It's still all about value. If they go off early, you know it's a position you can wait at, though you don't want to get entirely boxed out in 2QB. If they are hanging around, I'm perhaps a bit more likely to take my priority targets in that format.
- Chris: I've usually been one of the first to take a first QB — usually Watson — and then one of the last to take a second. That flattening of the position I talked about early means the gap between the 10th and 20th quarterback probably isn't going to be wide enough to make waiting for a first or reaching for a second one worth it. The value is early and late.
4) Which player currently being selected outside of the top 12 at QB has the best chance to make the leap to the elite tier?
- Jamey: If we're going based on the Average Draft Position on CBS Sports then I would take Jameis Winston, who is being drafted as the No. 15 quarterback off the board. Kyler Murray is also there, and he's the No. 14 quarterback based on ADP.
- Dave: Kyler Murray is the 14th-ranked quarterback by ADP. I doubt it lasts, but he's got top-five upside given his aggressive offense and his dual-threat capabilities. He's going to be a very exciting player.
- Heath: There are so many. Dak Prescott and Mitchell Trubisky wouldn't actually be making a leap, but I'd bet on them finishing top 12. Jameis Winston could easily jump into the elite tier if he just plays 16 games. Lamar Jackson has top-five upside if his passing improves like past second-year QBs.
- Adam: It's Jimmy Garoppolo. I love Garoppolo this season! He has averaged 8.5 passing yards per attempt in nine games with San Francisco. That's a strong number and his head coach has a track record that makes me think a big year is coming for the 49ers offense.
- Ben: Kyler Murray has an ADP in the top 12 some places and not others. He'd be my first choice, Jameis Winston would be my alternate.
- Chris: Lamar Jackson. We're going to see much better passing from him in his second year in an offense designed around his skills, and there's both a safe floor and huge upside in his rushing production. Jackson's pace in his eight starts last season was 1,220 yards and eight touchdowns. I don't think we're quite accounting enough for the possibility of a truly historic season.
5) Who is the top-five QB are you least likely to draft?
- Jamey: Mahomes. Only because he will be drafted much sooner than I would consider him based on the position he plays.
- Dave: I'd love to get Deshaun Watson on some of my teams, but I'm not going to get him because there are people out there who are willing to take him sooner than I would. I love his track record, his skill set and his receivers. I am worried about his health behind arguably the league's worst offensive line (even Arizona's is better).
- Heath: Right now it's gotta be Andrew Luck. He's often the second QB off the board, and I prefer Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers.
- Adam: Assuming Baker Mayfield is a top-five QB, I won't be drafting him. He'll probably have the fewest rushing yards of the elite quarterbacks, and I think Cleveland could be a running team under Freddie Kitchens, though we'll have to wait and see about that. I prefer Cam Newton.
- Ben: Aaron Rodgers, but more by default. I think Green Bay wants to run a bit more with their backs, and at Rodgers' age I expect his own rushing value (which was not insignificant in his prime) is going to keep fading.
- Chris: Rodgers or Luck. It's not that I don't like either. But I'm much more likely to take a chance on Mahomes and Watson with their elite weapons and track records.
6) Which young QB has the best chance to go all Patrick Mahomes on us?
- Jamey: Since you said young, let's go with Murray. He won't be Mahomes -- no one will. But he could emerge as a top-five Fantasy quarterback if things go right.
- Dave: You know I'm going to go with Murray. He's a seamless fit into Kliff Kingsbury's offense and the Cardinals have surrounded him with some really nice pass catchers. If you see him past 85th overall in non-PPR and 95th overall in PPR, draft him whether you need a quarterback or not.
- Heath: I'll say Deshaun Watson. Another small increase in his pass volume (550 attempts?) would get him to 4,500 yards and 35 passing touchdowns at his career efficiency. Stack 600 rushing yards and a half dozen touchdowns on the grounds and you're getting close.
- Adam: Jared Goff is really, really good and he's still very young. The Rams are loaded with talent and Goff will benefit from having his red zone BFF Cooper Kupp back in the fold.
- Ben: Baker is the only young guy with that kind of passing upside, which takes an amount of consistency I just don't see Jameis Winston producing (though Winston could be very good on volume alone). Kyler is the other reasonable pick for overall Fantasy upside on that level if he's a run/pass revelation.
- Chris: Watson. That might be cheating, but he's so wildly efficient as a passer and rusher, and you have to think he won't get sacked 62 times again. Tack on an extra 30-40 pass attempts and a healthy receiving corps, and it's not hard to see 4,500 passing yards, 500 rushing yards, and 45 total touchdowns.