Receiver help? Aaron Rodgers don't need no stinkin' receiver help. Armed with the same weapons he had in his disappointing 2019, Rodgers nonetheless put together one of his finest seasons ever in 2020. Assuming the Packers can keep him happy -- a bigger question than ever before -- this should continue to be an elite offense. Rodgers has, you may have heard, expressed his frustration with the team and his desire to be traded. That hangs over everything with this team, and it's not something we'll likely have a satisfactory answer to for a while.
2020 Review
Record: 13 - 3 (2)
PPG: 31.8 (1)
YPG: 389.0 (5)
Pass YPG: 256.6 (9)
Rush YPG: 132.4 (8)
PAPG: 32.9 (24)
RAPG: 27.7 (12)
2020 Fantasy finishes
QB: Aaron Rodgers QB1
RB: Aaron Jones RB5, Jamaal Williams* RB40, A.J. Dillon RB83
WR: Davante Adams WR1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR54, Allen Lazard WR80
TE: Robert Tonyan TE3
*No longer with team
Number to know: 34.1%
That's Davante Adams' target share from last season -- and it was 42.2% in the red zone. No wide receiver was a bigger part of his team's passing game than Adams, who also ranked fifth in air yard share at 39.2%. If you're looking for reasons to remain optimistic about Adams even with the uncertainty around Rodgers' future with the team, that's the reason. He's old enough -- 28 in Week 1 -- that his days as the top WR may not be long, but regardless of whether Rodgers is in Green Bay or not, it's hard to get away from Adams as the top option. Adams played eight games without Rodgers in 2017 and was on pace for 92 catches, 1,086 yards and 10 touchdowns, and I don't think it's unfair to assume Jordan Love would be better than Brett Hundley was that season.
2021 Offseason
Draft Picks
1. (29) Eric Stokes, CB
2. (62) Josh Myers, C
3. (85) Amari Rodgers, WR
4. (142) Royce Newman, G
5. (173) Tedarrell Slaton, DL
5. (178) Shemar Jean-Charles, CB
6. (214) Cole Van Lanen, OL
6. (220) Isaiah McDuffie, LB
7. (256) Kylin Hill, RBhi
Additions
Nothing much, really
Key Departures
C Corey Linsley, RB Jamaal Williams, LB Christian Kirksey,
Available Opportunity
142 carries, 60 RB targets, 19 WR targets, 17 TE targets
Team Outlooks: Falcons | Cowboys | Bears | Broncos | Lions
2021 Preview
| Award |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 44 | 44 | 50 | 37 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 11 | 11 | 13 | 19 |
Chris Towers' projections
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | PA: 571, YD: 4453, TD: 35, INT: 7; RUSH -- ATT: 47, YD: 211, TD: 3 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | CAR: 260, YD: 1250, TD: 10; TAR: 80, REC: 58, YD: 489, TD: 3 |
| RB | AJ Dillon | CAR: 165, YD: 742, TD: 6; TAR: 27, REC: 18, YD: 133, TD: 0 |
| WR | Davante Adams | TAR: 177, REC: 122, YD: 1478, TD: 12 |
| WR | Allen Lazard | TAR: 68, REC: 44, YD: 604, TD: 5 |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | TAR: 63, REC: 33, YD: 524, TD: 3 |
| WR | Amari Rodgers | TAR: 58, REC: 30, YD: 475, TD: 2 |
| TE | Robert Tonyan | TAR: 63, REC: 47, YD: 518, TD: 5 |
Biggest Question
A point of clarification: Obviously, what happens with the disgruntled Rodgers is the only question that matters for the Packers. But it's not a question we can really answer here, and it's not a question with particularly interesting answers. If Rodgers is still here in Week 1, this is going to be an excellent offense; if he's not, it's probably average at best. With that out of the way, here's another important question:
What does the backfield split look like?
We know the Packers are going to use multiple running backs, and they've got two pretty good ones. Aaron Jones is a star and AJ Dillon sure looks like he could do a pretty passable Derrick Henry impersonation. However, Dillon probably won't be used much in the passing game. If Jones takes on the majority of the 98 targets he and Jamaal Williams split last season, could he challenge for the No. 1 RB spot? It's in play, while Dillon could still get enough to be a No. 3 RB.
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One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
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Dillon figures to be the No. 2 back for the Packers, but that can be a very valuable role. He showed last season he can be an effective runner when given the chance, and his size and speed make him an ideal complement to Jones in the running game. He probably won't catch many passes, but he may not be a zero either -- his low reception totals in college were at least in part a reflection of Boston College's low-volume passing offense. Let's say he gets 25-30 targets and 150 carries -- that could very well lead to 900 total yards and half a dozen touchdowns -- with a much higher ceiling if anything happens to Jones. I thought Dillon might end up overhyped this offseason, but as RB32 with a seventh-round ADP, he's not a bad value. If you're waiting on RB, he's a good high-upside target who could be useful even if Jones is healthy.
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Jones finished second and fifth in Fantasy points at RB over the last two seasons, and I think he can be even better. The outrageous touchdown rates will still be in his grasp as long as Rodgers is here, but swapping out Dillon for Williams should mean an even bigger role in the passing game. I would expect Jones continues to see around 15 carries per week, and he'll likely remain quite efficient with them, but the passing game role is where the leap can come from. He and Williams combined for 113 targets in 2019 and 98 in 2020, and if he gets, say, 75% of those this season, we could be looking at around 80 targets for Jones -- which would likely lead to career-best receiving numbers across the board. And potentially a No. 1 finish in Fantasy if all goes right.
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I'm not going to mince words here: There isn't a reason to draft Tonyan as a starting tight end for your Fantasy team in anything but the very last rounds. Sure, he finished as the No. 3 TE last season, and that's great. But you don't get points in 2021 for 2020's touchdowns, and he's unlikely to score 11 touchdowns on 59 targets again, even if Rodgers is his QB. Tonyan was 24th among tight ends in targets, 13th in catches, and 13th in yards and matched Travis Kelce for the position lead in TDs. He was, ultimately, third at a two-person position in 2020, and if he's got the same role in 2021, he'll likely just be a streaming option at best. Draft him with that in mind, and it's fine. If you expect him to be a set-it-and-forget-it tight end, you're asking to waste a pick.
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.
