I am lucky enough to work with three of the best Fantasy Football analysts in the business. I have learned a lot from Dave, Jamey and Heath over the years, and I learned a lot recently just by reading their Busts columns. They presented convincing bust cases for guys like Zay Flowers, Josh Allen, Javonte Williams, Mike Evans and plenty more.
But as good as my colleagues are, they're not always right. We're talking about three people who think Die Hard is a Christmas movie despite so much evidence to the contrary. The movie was released in July, fellas!
Now that I've destroyed the credibility of my friends, it's time to play Devil's Advocate on some of their bust calls. I'm picking two players from each of their Busts columns and making the case for why those players will be just fine at their ADP and we should not be avoiding them.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
Dave says he has a bad feeling about James Cook considering his early Round 3 ADP. I'm actually fine with Cook late in the second round. Cook was the No. 19 RB per game with only six TDs (two rushing) in 2023. He has to score more than six TDs this season, right? Cook has only four rushing TDs in two seasons and Josh Allen is a constant factor near the goal line, but there is reason for optimism. Latavius Murray had 11 carries inside the 5-yard line in 2023. The prior season, Devin Singletary had seven carries from that range. Cook doesn't need to take anything away from Allen, he just needs to be the next man in line for the goal-line work.
In his last nine games (including two postseason games), Cook was on pace for 289 carries, 53 catches and about 1,700 total yards. That was while averaging only 4.3 yards per carry, which is well below his career average of 5.0. If Cook approaches 1,700 total yards I feel very confident that he will score at least eight touchdowns. Factor in 50 or more catches and we've got a top-12 RB. Plus, without Stefon Diggs around we could see Cook surpass 60 catches and be one of the top pass-catching RBs in football.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
The Keenan Allen slander is too much. Allen will probably have his worst season since he tore his ACL in 2016, but that's because he has been a top-12 WR per game in PPR in seven straight seasons since that injury. Allen averaged more Fantasy points per game than Amon-Ra St. Brown last season. He was truly elite for Fantasy purposes.
Allen won't be a top-12 WR in 2024, but he is being drafted outside the top-30 WRs and on CBS he is WR39 in ADP. I would rather have Allen as WR39 than D.J. Moore as a top-20 WR. If you're worried about Allen's age, consider the cases of Julian Edelman and Larry Fitzgerald. Edelman had 1,117 yards and six TDs at age 33. Fitzgerald had 1,156 yards and six TDs at age 34. Crafty slot WRs (which Fitzgerald was at that point in his career) who know how to get open age well. Does Allen get open? ESPN Analytics graded Allen as the best WR in the NFL at getting open in 2023.
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Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
I'm more optimistic than Jamey is about older WRs – especially if they are future Hall of Famers. There are plenty of examples of superstar WRs thriving at age 31 or later including Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Randy Moss and Andre Johnson. Several of these guys had big seasons at age 32 or later, so I don't see why Adams doesn't have another great season or two in the tank. Outside of the elite five WRs at the top of draft boards, there isn't another player I'd pick to lead the NFL in targets in 2024.
What Adams needs is a better offense. The Raiders threw for 3,666 yards and 20 TDs in 2023. I don't think they'll be significantly better and I don't think it's out of the question that they are worse, but I'm banking on modest improvement particularly with TDs regardless of who ends up playing QB.
From what I've read, most talent evaluators still believe Adams is an elite WR and last season's struggles were not on him. And even while struggling, he was the No. 17 WR per game. Finally, I'd like to look at his yards after catch per reception which was a lousy 3.3 yards in 2023. It was 4.7 or more yards in each of the previous four seasons. This is a stat that tends to regress to the mean which would help make Adams more efficient this season.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Here's another older WR that people might be fading, but I just don't see any evidence that a good WR should be considered "old" at age 30, especially if this WR is coming off arguably his best season like Cooper is. Cooper was only WR19 per game in PPR, but when Dorian Thompson-Robinson was not his QB, Cooper was close to a top-five WR. And in Deshaun Watson's five healthy games, Cooper was on pace for 95 catches, 1,632 yards and seven touchdowns.
I'm not asking for anything close to that if I draft Cooper around 55th overall or later. This would put him just inside the top 30 in ADP at the position. He has outperformed that ADP in nearly every season of his career, and he'll do it again in 2024.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Heath thinks Saquon Barkley is going too early in CBS ADP, and Heath is absolutely right. Barkley should not be a first-round pick, and if you check ADP on different websites you'll see Barkley in the second round, which feels much more sensible. I'm going to lay out the optimistic case for Barkley. In PPR, Barkley was the No. 5 RB per game in 2022 and No. 9 per game in 2023 on the New York Giants. Imagine what he could do behind a great offensive line and with a prolific offense? To be fair, the Giants were an average offense in 2022 before being putrid in 2023. The Eagles will be much better than both of those Giants squads.
Can an Eagles RB score TDs with Jalen Hurts? Can an Eagles RB catch enough passes from Jalen Hurts? Well, in 2022 Miles Sanders rushed for 11 TDs. In 2023, D'Andre Swift was on pace for 43 catches after becoming the starter in Week 2. I wish that were more like 53 catches, but it's not a prerequisite. We've had two RBs finish in the top seven in PPR with 40 or fewer catches in four straight seasons.
I think Barkley has another good season left in him. His efficiency should improve and his scoring opportunities will spike. The Eagles lead the NFL with 79 carries inside the 5-yard line over the last two seasons. The Giants have 36 carries from that range in that same time period. Even with Hurts doing his thing near the goal line, there are plenty of opportunities awaiting Saquon Barkley.
Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
I have written about Nabers in my Bold Predictions and Breakouts pieces. The argument against Nabers being a bust is simple: He's awesome.
That's really all it comes down to. I loved him before the NFL Draft and I'm not going to stop loving him just because he has QB issues. Plenty of WRs – including rookies like Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans and A.J. Brown to name a few – have overcome concerning QB situations. You could certainly predict Nabers's rookie season will be like Drake London's (WR43 per game) or Garrett Wilson's (WR31 per game), but I consider Nabers a more talented player than either of those guys. I think he's on a different level and I'm excited to find out if he can overcome shaky QB play. Lastly, it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see Drew Lock take over at some point, and that could benefit Nabers.