A running joke here at CBS Sports, for at least the past five seasons, is that this will be the year that tight end is actually deep. In 2024, some people are saying it unironically. We've been here before and it has never actually proven true, but the question is whether anything is actually different in 2024, and that is to be determined.
What we can say for sure is that it was not true in 2023. No tight end averaged more than 15 Fantasy points per game in 2023, only two averaged 14 Fantasy points per game, and only 11 averaged double digits. What is supposed to be different is that a lot tight ends who were not good last year are supposed to be this year. That starts with Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, who were both below 9.5 FPPG last year. Kincaid gets the boost because he's a Year 2 tight end and Stefon Diggs was traded, Pitts because Kirk Cousins came to town and Arthur Smith left.
We're also hopeful that veterans Travis Kelce and George Kittle can maintain their production as they get another year older, that Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert can stay healthy, that Trey McBride and Evan Engram can keep up second half breakouts, and that Brock Bowers can continue the recent trend of at least one rookie tight end being startable in Fantasy. Sound like a lot of hopes? Well, it is still tight end.
Draft strategy
I'm not advising drafting any tight end before Round 3 this season, and I am thrilled to land any of the Tier 1 tight ends at the bottom of this article in Round 4. Based on current ADP, that makes Trey McBride and Mark Andrews my favorite elite targets. If I miss on the top four, there is a good chance I am waiting a long time to draft my tight end, we call this strategy great or late, and it's worked out well in the past. The one exception based on current ADP is George Kittle. If he's there in Round 6, I won't be able to pass him up. Kittle has a long history as an elite tight end and has some pretty incredible contingent upside if something happens to Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. I would also be tempted by Jake Ferguson if he falls to Round 9.
If you get to the double-digit rounds without a tight end, don't fret. There's never much difference between TE11 and TE15. And I have a sleeper target for you that is currently going after pick 120 in CBS PPR drafts. Pair him with T.J. Hockenson for late season upside.
Here are my sleepers, breakouts, and busts at the position:
I'm expecting an increase in pass volume for the Eagles with Kellen Moore taking over as offensive coordinator, especially in the red zone. Goedert has had a hard time staying healthy but his 17-game pace over the past two seasons is 75 catches for 846 yards and four touchdowns. A 10% boost in passing could make him a top-six tight end. More looks in the red zone could make him a league winner in the double-digit rounds.
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Schultz is a TD-or-bust option, but I think the truth is that most tight ends available after Round 10 are. At least with Schultz you know you're getting a high scoring offense and one of the best young passers in the league. I love pairing Schultz with Hockenson, who should be back to full speed by the middle of the season. Schultz's Week 14 bye means you shouldn't ever have to carry a third tight end.
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McBride projects as my No. 2 tight end, but I actually rank him No. 1 because of Travis Kelce's advanced age. This is great, because he's the fourth tight end off the board by ADP, even falling behind Dalton Kincaid on occasion. The upside comes from three potential places. One, he's a third-year player so he could just play better; two, he could have a high touchdown season; or three, his efficiency and catch rate could spike because Kyler Murray is fully recovered from his injury and no longer rusty. In his final 10 games last year, McBride was on pace for 112 catches and 1,114 yards. How's that for upside?
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Kelce is being drafted a full round higher than any other tight end and two rounds higher than McBride. He's 35 years old and the Chiefs took it easy on him last year on their way to the Super Bowl. With Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy available there is no reason to think the Chiefs will overwork their veteran tight end before the playoffs.
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Numbers to Know
- 10.2 -- Evan Engram averaged 10.2 targets per game after Christian Kirk went down. When Kirk was healthy, Engram averaged 7.5 targets per game.
- 44 -- Travis Kelce produced 44 yards or fewer in six of his last eight regular season games. He bounced back in the playoffs, so it may have been an injury thing. Hopefully, they weren't resting him for the playoffs.
- 14.8 -- Trey McBride averaged 14.8 PPR FPPG with Kyler Murray last year. No tight end averaged more than that last year.
- 1 -- Dalton Kincaid saw one more target than George Kittle last year. Kittle scored 50 more Fantasy points.
- 56 -- Jake Ferguson saw 56 targets in his final seven games, including the playoffs. With no new competition, Ferguson could be a sneaky top-five target.
- 4,000 -- Kyle Pitts has never played with a QB who threw for 4,000. Kirk Cousins did that seven times in his career.
Draft to Stream
Pat Freiermuth at Falcons
Freiermuth is the only tight end in this section that I believe could just be a starter all year. Diontae Johnson is gone and Arthur Smith's Falcons led the NFL in tight end target rate last year. I'm not sure how good the Falcons will be against tight ends this year, but I don't project them as particularly great at anything, and Freiermuth should be pretty clearly second on the Steelers in targets.
Zach Ertz at Buccaneers
Before he got hurt last year, Ertz was averaging 6.5 targets per game. In his final season with Kliff Kingsbury, he averaged 7.6 targets per game before getting hurt. We expect him to be healthy in Week 1 and the Buccaneers gave up the third-most Fantasy points to tight ends last season.
Hunter Henry vs Bengals
New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt comes from the land of tight end screens, Kevin Stefanski's Cleveland Browns. Their offense has historically targeted tight ends at a 24% rate or higher and there's no number one wide receiver in New England to change that. Also, the Bengals gave up the fifth-most Fantasy points to tight ends last season.
