Welcome to Busts 3.0. I'm going to do one final version of busts later this month with the players who concern me the most, but in this edition I wanted to do something different.
For the top 12 players in the consensus CBS Sports rankings -- which is a compilation of the rankings for me, Heath Cummings and Dave Richard -- I wanted to make a bust case for each guy. I'll also defend each player, but many of you are concerned about several guys in the first round.
Some of it is injury related, while other guys are dealing with contract situations. But these are the players who will lead your roster, and you should have a balanced view of how they could perform in 2024.
1. Christian McCaffrey
Why he's a bust: Let's start with the obvious: the calf injury he's dealing with could cause him to miss a couple of weeks. That's concerning for any player, especially a running back who is 28 and had over 400 total touches last season, including the playoffs. Star left tackle Trent Williams is also a holdout for training camp over his contract, and we don't want to see Williams miss any time in the regular season. Along with that, it's hard to repeat as the No. 1 running back. The last time that happened was 2002-03 with Priest Holmes. Legends like LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and even McCaffrey still need to accomplish this feat. Aging, overworked, injured and a weakened offensive line are all relevant concerns for McCaffrey if you plan to draft him at No. 1 overall.
Why he's not: Let's start with the obvious, he's awesome. McCaffrey averaged 24.5 PPR points per game last season, which is the fifth time he's averaged more than 20 PPR points per game in his seven-year career, including four times averaging at least 23.1 points. McCaffrey played through a calf injury in the playoffs last season and had 59 carries for 268 yards and four touchdowns and 19 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets in three outings. When he's healthy and on his game, there aren't many running backs -- if any at all -- who can perform at his level, especially in this offense. McCaffrey gives you the best chance to win your league.
2. CeeDee Lamb
Why he's a bust: He's dealing with a holdout due to his contract, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said last week that "I don't have any urgency to get it done." That's not what you want to hear, and hopefully Lamb will get an extension soon or just play this season under his current deal. On the field, Lamb was elite over the final 11 games last year, averaging 28.5 PPR points per game. But in the first six outings of the season he averaged just 14.9 PPR points per game, and his best year was 17.7 PPR points per game in 2022. What if those 11 games to close 2023 were a fluke?
Why he's not: Those final 11 games were elite. From Week 8 on, Lamb averaged 12.6 targets per game, and he was on pace for 156 catches, 1,969 yards and 17 touchdowns over a full season. With Lamb away from the team, the Cowboys' top options at wide receiver are Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Jalen Brooks and KaVontae Turpin, along with Jake Ferguson at tight end. That group isn't going to help Dallas make a playoff run, so you can expect Jones to show more "urgency" soon. And Lamb will once again soak up targets from Dak Prescott, allowing Lamb to build off last season's breakout performance.
3. Tyreek Hill
Why he's a bust: In full disclosure, it's tough to make a bust case for Hill. The first place to start is his age (30), and this could be the season he starts to slow down if that's possible. Then, there's always the risk of something happening to Tua Tagovailoa since we saw what that looked like in 2022. Tagovailoa missed four games that season, and Hill averaged just 15.7 PPR points per game over that span, which is good but not elite. And Jaylen Waddle being 100 percent -- he played fewer than 65 percent of the snaps in five games last season and missed three others due to injury -- could take away some targets from Hill, as well as the additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Malik Washington and Jonnu Smith. If Tagovailoa starts to spread the ball around more this season then Hill could suffer.
Why he's not: In two years with the Dolphins, Hill has 341 targets for 238 catches, 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns. He's averaged 21.8 PPR points per game over that span. He is the first player in NFL history to have multiple seasons with at least 1,700 receiving yards. His 1,799 yards in 2023 are the most in a season in Dolphins history, breaking his own record of 1,710 set in 2022. He ranks No. 7 and No. 13 for the most receiving yards in a season in NFL history. In 2023, he became the third player in NFL history to register more than 110 receptions in three consecutive seasons, joining Antonio Brown (2013-15) and Wes Welker (2007-09). Hill had 111 receptions in 2021, his final season in Kansas City, and he has consecutive years of 119 catches in Miami. As long as he stays healthy, Hill should be a star.
4. Breece Hall
Why he's a bust: Last year, Hall led all running backs with 95 targets and 76 catches, and that was without Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) and a weak receiving corps. Rodgers is back, and the Jets added Mike Williams and Malachi Corley to enhance their passing game, which should negatively impact Hall's receiving totals. The Jets also added a talented backup running back in rookie Braelon Allen, who could steal touches and potentially rushing touchdowns. And the Jets offensive line, while upgraded, might not be as good as advertised.
Why he's not: Hall is two years removed from the ACL tear he suffered in 2022, so he should be more explosive, which is a scary thought. The Jets offense should improve this season with Rodgers back, offensive line upgrades with Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses, Olu Fashanu and Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles) back and better weapons at receiver joining Garrett Wilson. It's unlikely Hall stays as involved in the passing game as he did in 2023, but his rushing production should spike. He has the potential for 2,000 total yards, 15 total touchdowns and 50 receptions, which is why he's the easy choice for me as the No. 2 running back this season.
5. Justin Jefferson
Why he's a bust: The loss of Kirk Cousins could be huge, and the Vikings will either start journeyman Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy at quarterback this season. Darnold, who has played with the Jets, Panthers and 49ers, has never had a receiver like Jefferson. But the best season for a receiver with Darnold was D.J. Moore in Carolina in 2021 when he had 93 catches for 1,157 yards and four touchdowns on 163 targets. You're not drafting Jefferson in Round 1 for those types of stats. Furthermore, Jefferson has scored eight touchdowns or less in three of four seasons, so he needs to remain north of 100 catches and 1,600 yards to be worthy of this selection if he's not going to be dominant in the end zone.
Why he's not: In four games to close the season last year with Nick Mullens, Jefferson averaged 22.1 PPR points per game. He had eight games last year with at least nine targets and scored at least 24 PPR points in six of them. For his career, he averages 9.6 targets per game. Jefferson is also the NFL's all-time leader in yards per game at 98.3. The next closest receiver is Calvin Johnson at 86.1. Jefferson has proven to be a special talent, and his production last year with Mullens should be encouraging. We know Kevin O'Connell wants to run the offense through Jefferson as much as possible, and he has averaged at least 19.4 PPR points per game or more in three seasons in a row. The loss of Cousins could be immense for Jefferson, but O'Connell doesn't plan to change his offense, which is a plus for Jefferson continuing to see a hefty amount of targets.
6. Bijan Robinson
Why he's a bust: We want Robinson to be a star, and so do the Falcons. But they also aren't planning to leave Tyler Allgeier, according to offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. He said that Allgeier will "have a big role" and be leaned on at "certain points" during the season, per The Athletic. Last year, when Robinson was supposed to be a dominant force as a rookie, he only had 28 more carries than Allgeier (214 to 186) despite playing much fewer snaps (771 to 360). Robinson and Allgeier also scored the same amount of rushing touchdowns last year with four, and hopefully Atlanta doesn't view Allgeier as the goal-line back.
Why he's not: Following Atlanta's bye in Week 11 in 2023, Robinson scored at least 19 PPR points in four of seven games, including two games with at least 25 PPR points. He had at least 18 total touches in five of those outings. Robinson finished No. 24 in touches per game last season among running backs at 16.0. However, keep in mind that includes the Week 7 game at Tampa Bay where he had just one carry and no catches. If you remove that game, Robinson averaged 16.9 touches per game, which would be No. 15 among running backs. Robinson averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season, and only five players with more than 200 rushing attempts averaged more yards per carry in 2023. With Arthur Smith gone as the head coach and playcaller, the runway is open for Robinson to perform like the superstar many were hoping to see in his rookie campaign. New coach Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson will use Bijan Robinson like a workhorse running back, and there's been talk of Robinson being deployed like McCaffrey. If that happens, he could be the best running back in Fantasy this year.
7. Ja'Marr Chase
Why he's a bust: Chase is not practicing with the Bengals because he's a "hold in" due to his contract situation. We'll see how long this lasts, but we'd like to see Chase get ready for the season without any concern. And we want to make sure Chase and Joe Burrow stay healthy. In 2022, Chase missed four games with a hip injury, and he injured his shoulder last year, which forced him to miss one contest. And last year, Burrow missed seven games with an injured wrist, which hopefully won't linger into this season.
Why he's not: Through five games last season, Chase was on pace for 150 receptions, 1,618 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was averaging 8.8 catches and 95.2 yards per game over that span. Chase played nine games with Burrow healthy in 2023, and Chase was averaging 20.1 PPR points per game with Burrow under center. And in 12 games together in 2022, Chase averaged 20.2 PPR points per game. Chase has averaged 9.0 targets per game in his career and just had a career-best 145 targets in 2023. There's a chance he could see more time in the slot, which could increase his targets and production, and that's exciting. It wouldn't be a shock if Chase is the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this year.
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown
Why he's a bust: St. Brown was a third-year breakout in 2023, and he saw a spike in yards (354) and touchdowns (four) from the previous season. What if those numbers regress, especially with the Lions expecting more from Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs? Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery are also a factor, and St. Brown can still produce at a high level but not remain elite. He averaged 20.7 PPR points per game in 2023 but was at 16.7 PPR points in 2022. That might be his level of production this year, which would be solid, but not worth drafting at No. 8 overall.
Why he's not: It's hard to make a bust case for St. Brown, who has watched his Fantasy production increase every season from 13.4 PPR points per game to 16.7 to 20.7 last year. We hope his third-year breakout campaign in 2023 will continue to be the norm, and he was among six receivers last season to average at least 10 targets per game. The Lions have 64 vacated targets with Josh Reynolds now in Denver, and that could be where Williams gets his chances, not from St. Brown. In 2023, St. Brown was fifth in the NFL in targets (164), target share (30.2 percent), target rate (29.2 percent) and slot snaps (472). He was also third in the NFL in red-zone targets (25) and second in yards after the catch (668). I'm very excited to draft St. Brown this year.
9. A.J. Brown
Why he's a bust: Brown closed last year with a whimper, averaging just 8.5 PPR points per game in his final four outings in the regular season. He shares the field with impressive weapons in DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert, and Smith might benefit more from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore than Brown. Barkley's presence could also lead to more rushing touchdowns, and Brown only scored seven touchdowns in 2023, which is the second worst total of his career.
Why he's not: In two seasons in Philadelphia, Brown has 194 catches for 2,952 yards and 18 touchdowns on 303 targets. He has averaged at least 17.0 PPR points per game in each year. Only Hill (3,509) and Lamb (3,108) have more receiving yards than Brown in the past two seasons. Last season, Brown set an NFL record with six games in a row with at least 125 receiving yards from Weeks 3-8. Over that span, Brown had 49 catches for 831 yards and five touchdowns on 67 targets, and he scored at least 20.1 PPR points in five of those outings. When the streak ended, Brown was on pace for 127.5 catches, 1,982.6 yards and 10.6 touchdowns. Brown was No. 11 in targets per game last year at 9.3, and he should stay in that range or better. Moore gave Lamb 9.2 targets per game in Dallas in 2022 as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, and Allen led the NFL at 11.5 targets per game in 2023 with Moore calling plays for the Chargers.
10. Garrett Wilson
Why he's a bust: We're hoping that Rodgers coming back is going to unlock Wilson and make him a third-year breakout. But what if that doesn't happen? Rodgers is 40 and just suffered a significant injury with his Achilles. Maybe he's not an elite talent anymore, and Wilson might be stuck with more bad quarterback play like we've seen in each of the first two seasons of his career. The Jets also added some talent to the receiving corps with Mike Williams and Corley, and Rodgers could favor that duo more than Wilson, along with the presence of Hall.
Why he's not: As a rookie in 2022, Wilson averaged 17.6 PPR points per game in seven outings with Joe Flacco or Mike White starting, including three games with at least 24 PPR points over that span. Despite scoring just three touchdowns in 2023 -- and only one after Week 2 -- Wilson still reached at least 15 PPR points eight times in 2023. And his 9.9 targets per game last season was good for seventh in the NFL. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, Wilson should become the next star receiver in the NFL, especially given Rodgers' history of leaning on his No. 1 guy. I'm confident in Wilson being a third-year breakout candidate in 2024.
11. Jahmyr Gibbs
Why he's a bust: It's not often we recommend a first-round running back who likely won't lead his team in carries, but that's the case with Gibbs. Last season, despite playing more games than David Montgomery, Gibbs still had 37 fewer carries than Montgomery did. And while Gibbs did well in tandem with Montgomery, his numbers popped when he was a solo act. Montgomery missed three games last year, and Gibbs averaged 22.2 PPR points per game over that span. Without those three games, Gibbs' average for the season dropped from 16.1 PPR points to 14.6. While the Lions have said Gibbs will have a bigger role this season, if things stay the same then Gibbs might not have a breakout sophomore campaign.
Why he's not: The reason we love Gibbs is his expected role in the passing game, and only seven running backs saw more targets than Gibbs in 2023, with his 52 receptions tied for the ninth-most at the position. He also had six games with at least 21.5 PPR points in his final 11 outings, with four of those coming with Montgomery. And we saw the upside of what Gibbs can be if Montgomery were to miss any time. In the three games Montgomery missed last year, Gibbs averaged 18 carries and had at least 18 total touches in all three contests. He scored at least 27.6 PPR points in two of those outings. Despite Montgomery scoring 13 rushing touchdowns, Gibbs still had 10 rushing touchdowns of his own. Hopefully, his role will expand, and he's worth drafting toward the back end of Round 1.
12. Jonathan Taylor
Why he's a bust: Taylor was the No. 1 Fantasy running back in 2021 at 21.9 PPR points per game. Since then, he's averaged 13.3 PPR points per game (2022) and 15.6 PPR points per game (2023) in the past two seasons. He's also played just 21 total games over the past two years due to injury. We don't know how he'll perform with Anthony Richardson since the two played just two snaps together last season, and Richardson could vulture plenty of rushing touchdowns. And Taylor has never been a prolific pass catcher in the NFL, averaging just 2.3 catches per game in 53 career outings. He caught 40 passes on 51 targets in 2021 but has combined for 47 receptions on 63 targets in the past two seasons.
Why he's not: While it's doubtful his stats in the passing game will spike this season with Richardson, Taylor has proven he can be a 2,000-plus total yard running back and score 20 total touchdowns. That's what he did in 2021, and he's still capable of replicating that level of production. Taylor has scored 44 total touchdowns in 53 career games, and the Colts had a running back score a touchdown in 13 of 17 games in 2023. Taylor only played in 10 games last year, so he should have a chance for his third season of double digits in touchdowns. Taylor's lack of work in the passing game is a concern, but he could lead the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. I would actually draft Saquon Barkley ahead of Taylor, but Taylor is worthy of being selected in Round 1.