Adam Aizer asked on Fantasy Football Today whether all of the good tight ends took a hit this week and it's hard to argue they didn't. Brock Bowers is going from Kirk Cousins to rookie Fernando Mendoza. Trey McBride will be on his third quarterback in Carson Beck. George Kittle and Travis Kelce added target competition from the Indianapolis Colts. Now all of these guys are going to be started, obviously, but it may impact their trade value and you should be cautious if someone offers them to you for a "fair" deal.
Isaiah Likely didn't get any new additions or lose his quarterback this week, but I am more concerned about him maintaining his production than any of the guys above. And I think the fact that Likely caught a touchdown pass (from Jameis Winston) may provide an opportunity to sell him high before the bottom falls out. The big problem for Likely is that J.J. McCarthy does not appear as interested in throwing his tight end the ball.
Likely had a 28.6% target share through the first six weeks of the season. He has seen a 16% target share from McCarthy. In fact, Likely has fallen to the third option when McCarthy has been under center, with Malachi Fields seeing more targets than him. Like I said, even Likely's touchdown last week came from Winston.
None of this means you should be concerned about starting Likely. I still think he'll be a top-12 tight end for the rest of the season. I don't think he'll be particularly close to his season average in Fantasy points per game. What I would like to do is deal Likely for a small downgrade at tight end and make yourself better somewhere else. Potential targets include Tucker Kraft and Harold Fannin. Another target could be T.J. Hockenson, who is a trade-deadline winner with the Vikings' acquisition of Kirk Cousins. I wouldn't be that surprised if Hockenson outscored Likely rest of season and you should get a nice sweetener in that deal.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 10:
Week 10 TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 20.9% -- T.J. Hockenson ranks fifth amongst tight ends with a 20.9% target share. If the quality of targets improves like we think it will, Hockenson could be a big riser.
- 1.14 -- Kyle Pitts is averaging just 1.14 yards per route run. That is bottom five at the position amongst tight ends with at least 30 targets.
- 24.25 -- The Lions are giving up 24.25 PPR points per game to tight ends. No other team is allowing more than 18.12.
- 4.1 -- Travis Kelce is averaging 4.1 catches per game, the lowest mark of his career. I am not sure Josh Downs is going to help that.
- 65 -- Tucker Kraft had 65 yards against the Vikings in Week 1. That is the most they have given up to a tight end all season.
- 36.7% -- Rams tight ends combined for a 36.7% target share in two games without Puka Nacua earlier this year.
Waiver Wire Targets
 
WAS
Washington
• #85
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
The Giants present a better matchup for tight ends and this looks like a rainy game, so shorter-area targets may be preferable. Okonkwo has an 18% target share over the last two weeks with Jayden Daniels and has scored double-digit PPR Fantasy points in three of his last four games. He could have some hidden upside as well if he scores his first touchdown of the season.
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DFS Plays
 
SF
San Francisco
• #85
Age: 33 • Experience: 10 yrs.
Kittle has an outstanding matchup against the Cowboys and we are expecting Mike Evans to miss at least one more week. If Keenan Allen impacts Kittle's target share, I don't think it will happen after Allen has had less than a week of practice with his new team. That should mean a target share north of 25% for Kittle in a game where his team has an implied total of 30. There's a good argument for Kittle being the top tight end in the rankings this week but his FanDuel price is $1,400 cheaper than Brock Bowers' and $800 less than Trey McBride.
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Tyler Warren
TE
IND
Indianapolis
• #84
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
This Colts offense is one of the saddest in the NFL, but Tyler Warren should get all the targets he can handle. He's already averaging nearly eight per game and the matchup against the Dolphins should help improve his subpar efficiency.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 10 Fantasy football projections for every position is now available here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 10. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are updated throughout the week, so check back before you set your lineup for the latest information.
