Jaylen Waddle opened last season with three straight duds. Targets were tough to come by and he missed the Dolphins' Week 4 matchup where they hung 70 on the Broncos. People panicked.
Finally in Week 5 he scored a then-season-high 14.5 PPR points and then crossed over the 15-PPR point mark the following game. From then on, Waddle had just three more big games with large production. Waddle's slow start and up-and-down year thereafter sent him to 21st among wideouts on a per-game basis in 2023 (14.2) and 34th in total PPR points scored (198.6).
For a receiver who totally disappointed through the first three weeks of the season, that's actually considered a really good result.
Over the past five years, only six receivers went without 15 or more PPR points in their first three games and managed to still finish as a top-20 Fantasy receiver in either total PPR points scored or PPR per-game average. Those were: Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Godwin in 2022, Robert Woods in 2021, Brandin Cooks and Marvin Jones in 2020, and Jarvis Landry in 2019.
Six receivers in the past five years. That's enough of a sample size to know when it's appropriate to panic about one of your top-drafted receivers not working out in your favor.
The worst part? By the time you realize the receiver is a bust, so too will your fellow Fantasy managers. You can say goodbye to any good trade value unless you deal with people who just aren't paying attention.
A lot of wideouts were disappointments in Week 1. Let's dissect them all and see if we can feel good about any of them moving forward.
What happened in Week 1: Garrett Wilson got 11 targets, easily within the anticipated range of what we were hoping for. And while Aaron Rodgers might have been a tick late on a couple of throws, he and Wilson were in sync on a number of designed routes where Wilson was the first read. He just ran a lot of short routes, only getting targeted deep one time. Wilson did pick up three red-zone targets, but he ran into 49ers defenders on two of them and ran a comeback route to move the sticks on the other. The Jets only ran three plays inside the 10-yard line and two were runs.
What will happen in Weeks 2 and 3? Wilson's days against tough secondaries aren't ending anytime soon -- the Titans are likely to put L'Jarius Sneed on him in Week 2, the Patriots could assign young cornerback Christian Gonzalez to him in Week 3 and then Patrick Surtain will make his acquaintance in Week 4. At least the pass rushes won't be too bad in any of those matchups, giving Rodgers a bit more time to connect.
Should we panic? Nah. Targets are king in Fantasy and Wilson had the fifth-most in a tough road matchup in Rodgers' first full game in two years. As long as Rodgers is upright, Wilson should be fine.
Must-start in Week 2? Yes.
What happened in Week 1: The Bills weren't about to let Marvin Harrison Jr. beat them -- safeties and linebackers contributed coverage in Harrison's general direction nearly all game long. Kyler Murray was smart not to force it to him. That said, when Murray did throw at Harrison he looked pretty bad: he dropped one pass and didn't even try to reel in a back-shoulder throw that was a shade behind him. Harrison admitted this week he "was definitely thinking a lot out there," which is a reasonable excuse for his slow movement. The good news? There were shades of him playing with more speed and quickness toward the end of the game, hinting that maybe he had eventually gotten comfortable.
What will happen in Weeks 2 and 3? Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing took the blame for not dialing up more plays for Harrison last week and when asked about doing it moving forward he said, "That's the plan." The Rams, Lions and Commanders are up next for Harrison, three matchups that no one should believe are tough; only the Lions have a fierce pass rush that could impact Murray. Harrison's role should develop.
Should we panic? Nope. There's no way the Cardinals spent an early-rounder on him just to give Greg Dortch eight targets per game. Everything looks good moving forward for Harrison including a big jump in targets.
Must-start in Week 2? Yes.
What happened in Week 1: Davante Adams looked spry and had a number of routes where he jab-stepped and sped past his coverage, but the Raiders O-line couldn't consistently protect Gardner Minshew. On money downs the Chargers predictably bracketed Adams in an effort to deter Minshew from throwing to him. Minshew's average depth of throw for the game was just 4.5 measly yards, but he was actually solid on his 10 throws of 10-plus air yards (80% completion rate, 15.5 yards per attempt). Sadly, Adams was targeted on just four of those longer tosses and only six times in the entire game.
What will happen in Weeks 2 and 3? This week the Raiders play at Baltimore, a matchup that's less scary after the Ravens allowed some serious busts in the passing game to the Chiefs. Then again, that's the Chiefs -- the Raiders can't be given credit to be as crafty as Kansas City. But it's unlikely to be a game where the Raiders play with a lead, so Adams should see plenty of targets again. In Week 3 the Raiders host the Panthers -- that would be Adams' best chance to have a smash game ... and with Cleveland, Denver and Pittsburgh to follow, it might be his only chance until Week 7.
Should we panic? Maybe. No one should expect Minshew to suddenly become an efficient downfield thrower, and even if Minshew gets replaced by Aidan O'Connell it doesn't guarantee any better quality of throws for Adams. That schedule after Week 3 will be tough on Adams, too. If the Raiders start 1-5, do they consider trading Adams to a contender for a draft pick? It could be the only way Adams' Fantasy value takes a huge turn for the better. At least you should feel good about Adams' age not being a factor.
Must-start in Week 2? Depends on who else you have and whether or not catches count. In three-WR leagues he's a lock.
What happened in Week 1: Chris Olave was targeted twice as the Saints built an early lead on the Panthers and called pass plays at a 29% clip in the second half. He drew double coverage on a smattering of deep routes but wasn't otherwise fiercely defended by Carolina, which might be considered bad news. Olave also lost six yards on a pop pass that Carolina snuffed out and had a nine-yard reception called back by a holding penalty.
What will happen in Weeks 2 and 3? More competitive games for the Saints at Dallas and against Philadelphia. Both matchups figure to be tough on the run and force Derek Carr to throw more. That might have been a bad thing last year, but given how impressive the Saints offensive line was and how progressive the Saints offense and playcalling was, there's hope for some good, functional passing. Olave should be front and center.
Should we panic? Not yet. If the Saints offense lays an egg at Dallas then concern is warranted. If you think that's going to happen then shopping Olave is what you should be doing in your league. If you don't, then acquire Olave if he's available for a discount.
Must-start in Week 2? Yes.
What happened in Week 1: The Falcons got pummeled in the time of possession battle and Kirk Cousins had just 27 dropbacks against the Steelers' fresh-as-can-be pass rush. Atlanta's O-line couldn't protect Cousins very well and he looked old. He couldn't maneuver around the pocket save for one play and seemed to not have the same power and velocity on his throws, both issues related to his Achilles injury. By my count, Drake London was open by a full yard or more of separation on 11 of 28 routes, all exclusively against zone coverage, and Cousins was already locked in on a different teammate by the time London was free on nine of those routes. That's a bad combination. London did have one catch when he shielded Joey Porter Jr. away from the ball with his body for seven yards. London had a 13% target share and a grand total of three yards after the catch.
What will happen in Weeks 2 and 3? I fear more of the same, especially for Cousins. Both the Eagles and Chiefs have bullying pass rushes that should force Cousins into short throws. Normally that would work for London, but the whole theory of him seeing heavy target volume flew out the window in Week 1 and thus can't be counted on as a weekly occurrence, especially if he's not getting open fast enough for Cousins, who is already hurrying to get rid of the football. Silver lining: Both the Chiefs and Eagles played zone coverage on at least 70% of their snaps in Week 1. Maybe that becomes a reliable trend for both of them and London can benefit.
Should we panic? Of the five receivers listed here, London is the one I'm most worried about. The other four have speed and two (maybe three) are attached to a capable quarterback. For London to truly break out, he must dominate targets in Atlanta, and the Falcons must be a high-volume passing team. Neither of those things look like they're guaranteed to happen. If I could turn London into any receiver who had an average draft position in the first four rounds (except for Puka Nacua), I would.
Must-start in Week 2? I think he's more of a flex or No. 3 WR. You could find it in your heart to bench him depending on who else you have. I'd roll the dice on Jameson Williams or Terry McLaurin over him.
