If you're reading this, congratulations, I am assuming you made your Fantasy Football playoffs. Or, hi mom! Either way, before we get into what changed in Week 14 we need to talk about a couple of potential major changes as we wait on injury updates.
Bucky Irving and Isaac Guerendo were supposed to be league winners in the Fantasy Football playoffs. Both left Week 14 with injuries. Guerendo looked the part in Week 14, totaling 128 yards on 17 touches and scoring two touchdowns before leaving with a foot injury. Guerendo said he only left early to be extra careful because the team has a short week this week with a Thursday game against the Rams. But that short week makes it more risky for him to miss a week. That means Patrick Taylor is going to be one of those players you must add as a just in case. If Guerendo is fine? He's a top-12 running back this week and rest of season.
Irving had been a week winner the past two weeks but left after only five touches in Week 14 due to a back injury. He entered the week with multiple injuries, so I am a little more concerned about this one. Rachaad White picked up right where Irving left off, with 109 total yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. White will be a must-start if Irving misses Week 15 against the Chargers and Sean Tucker will be a lower-priority waiver add.
One more quick note that we should file in the "maybe" category: Isiah Davis had one more target and one fewer carry than Braelon Allen in Week 14. The Jets have a great matchup against Jacksonville in Week 15. If Breece Hall is still out then both Allen and Davis are in play as high-end flexes.
Enough of what we don't know, let's get to the rankings risers and fallers entering the Fantasy playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco took another step forward
Pacheco's Fantasy performance wasn't great, he scored just 8.1 PPR Fantasy points. But he had a 56% rush share (70% of running back rushes), and a 10.8% target share (57% of the running back targets) which was certainly encouraging. His snap share was also up to 46%, which was nine points higher than Week 13. I expect Pacheco to top a 50% snap share in Week 15 against the Browns, which should make him a high-end flex in a week with no teams on a bye. The only complicating factor is that the Browns are Kareem Hunt's former team so there is at least some risk that the Chiefs give Hunt a goal line carry to try to score against his former team. I have boosted Pacheco's rush share up to 60% and his target share up to 6% for Week 15.
Miami's pass game rebound continues
Tua Tagovailoa threw the ball 47 times for 331 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets. The team ran the ball 19 times for just 44 yards. The Dolphins rush rate is down to 31.8% over the last month. It was 46.7% over the first 10 weeks of the season. The Dolphins have a huge game at Houston this week and I would expect their pass-heavy ways to continue. This is particularly good news for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has 25 targets in his last three games, he didn't have one game with more than eight targets in the first 11 weeks of the season. He's a good number three wide receiver this week.
The Saints and Raiders pass games could go even further in the tank
Derek Carr is suspected to have suffered a broken left hand. That means we'll likely see Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener finish out the season. Aidain O'Connell suffered a season-ending knee injury, which means Desmond Ridder will quarterback the Raiders for the next month. Neither of these developments is positive.
For the Saints, this is going to cause me to get away from both Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Juwan Johnson despite their recent success. For the Raiders, it's a downgrade to Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, but you're probably still starting both of them. Ridder is closer to Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell than either Saints backup is to Carr.
The Saints and Raiders run games are moving in opposite directions
Sincere McCormick became a workhorse back in Week 14 with 17 touches to just two for Ameer Abdullah. I don't think the return of Alexander Mattison is going to change that. McCormick faces the Falcons, Jaguars, and Saints in the Fantasy playoffs and is a flex at worst.
Alvin Kamara got company in Week 14, with Kendre Miller carrying the ball 10 times and scoring a rushing touchdown. Like Bowers and Meyers above, you're still going to start Kamara, but this drop in rush share and a drop in projected points from the offense due to a QB change isn't great. He may be more of an RB2 than an RB1, especially if catches don't count for a full point.
Chuba Hubbard is a must-start running back again
Jonathon Brooks suffered a non-contact knee injury in Week 14. While we don't have a diagnosis as of Monday morning, we aren't expecting good news. In his absence, Hubbard touched the ball 30 times, racked up 107 yards, and 20.7 PPR Fantasy points against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Hubbard could absolutely win you your league in the Fantasy playoffs, he'll be ranked in the top-12 again next week.
